Plan B Forum

I know that wes is going to be thrilled that Justin Trudeau has won a second mandate tonight. Current results with all electoral districts but one reporting:

Liberal 157
Conservative 118
Bloc Quebecois 34
NDP 25
Green 3

So a strong Liberal minority with multiple options to get a working majority from issue to issue.

Yes I've been trying to follow it on the Globe and Mail site. (It used to be free but they've introduced some sort of firewall.) Interesting that the Liberals and the Conservatives had almost identical popular support (at least at the moment with 48 % reporting*) but a huge difference in number of seats. Do the Bloc Quebecois traditionally side with the Liberals? If yes he has a functional majority but they could extract a price. Justin's father Pierre had to tread a fine line between his Quebec roots and the separatists, but I don't think that Justin (not a very french sounding name and born in Ottawa) has the same image. I foresee the breakup of the UK (following Brexit) in the next five or ten years and I wouldn't be surprised to see new Quebec separatism moves.

*Now 60% reporting and it looks as if the conservatives have a slight lead in the popular vote.

The Conservative vote was very inefficient, massive majorities in some western provinces that served to gain only a few seats. Liberals could combine with either NDP or the BQ (yes, they do tack left) to secure a majority, depending on the issue. Or with the Tories, for that matter, who would almost certainly vote with the Liberals on pipeline expansion.

Conversely, it would take the three major opposition parties to act in concert to defeat the government, something not likely to happen anytime soon.