The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

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Darren
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Darren »

Now we know why so many people are either unaffected or mildly affected by COVID-19

Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals

"we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii ... %2930610-3
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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RayThom
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The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by RayThom »

Darren wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:32 am
Now we know why so many people are either unaffected or mildly affected by COVID-19Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals "we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf ?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930610-3
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dales
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by dales »

With the USA closing in on 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, I believe our little buddy Darrin is being a tad premature.

Your collective inability to acknowledge this obvious truth makes you all look like fools.


yrs,
rubato

Darren
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Darren »

"The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.)"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-o ... UdnVsa2Eec
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

Darren
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Darren »

Fear as virtue?

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Crackpot
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Crackpot »

:roll:
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Scooter
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Scooter »

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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Darren wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:34 pm
"The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.)"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-o ... UdnVsa2Eec
I took a look at Prof Ben-Israel's 'study'. Let's pick a linecouple of paragraphs in a :
Even one who does not possess a mathematical background can learn from the graph that the added number of patients per day does not increase at a constant rate, and therefore the growth is not exponential.
Er, no. Exponential growth does not mean that the added number of patients per day grows at a constant rate. Exponential means that the added number every day grows at a rate which is proportional to the number already affected. Prof Isaac Ben-Israel is supposedly a prominent mathematician. I don't know what sort of mathematician he is but that's a Mathematics 101-type error. Exponential growth means that there is a reasonably constant doubling time. If you look at the second graph in his piece:

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you'll see that the doubling time between around day 10 and day 35 was reasonably constant at about 5 days. That's classic exponential growth during that period. The doubling time goes up which means that the growth rate goes down. Social distancing works.

He might be a professor of mathematics. I'd love to be there next time he has a class of reasonably attentive undergraduates, who will take him apart on this.

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BoSoxGal
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by BoSoxGal »

Considering the abysmally inept handling of the pandemic in the USA thus far, the likelihood of spikes following the insanely stupid refusal of crowds to follow social distancing as states reopen (they're young, they're not worried, they could not care less about their parents, grandparents, the medically vulnerable who they might encounter when they go home from the beaches and pool parties), and the very high likelihood of a worse 2nd wave in fall/winter, isn't is very possible that by the end of Trump's presidency - assuming he is voted out - he will have essentially destroyed America's standing in the world not only as a moral leader but as a major economy as well?
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Bicycle Bill
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Bicycle Bill »

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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Scooter
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Scooter »

"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

-- Author unknown

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RayThom
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The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by RayThom »

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“In a world whose absurdity appears to be so impenetrable, we simply must reach a greater degree of understanding among us, a greater sincerity.” 

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RayThom
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The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by RayThom »

Meanwhile, in Harrisburg Pennsylvania...

Proof positive that Republican leadership has, unconscionably, and without question, politicized this deadly pandemic.

C'mon November 3rd.



https://www.facebook.com/brian.k.sims/v ... 628927090/
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Scooter
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Scooter »

One Of The First California Counties To Reopen Is Closing Again

Lassen County, a county of 30,000 people in the far reaches of Northern California, was one of the first places in the state to reopen in early May. But this week, it became the first to reverse course because of a resulting coronavirus outbreak.

The county’s public health officer, Dr. Kenneth Korver, announced the decision on Tuesday after confirming the county’s first four cases of COVID-19.

“While Lassen County had no confirmed cases for the past three months,
we were fully aware of the risk that the virus could come to our community,” he wrote. “Unfortunately, this did happen and we now have a serious problem.”

Lassen County began reopening with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s blessing in early May, far sooner than the state’s denser communities could even consider. In the weeks that followed, the county opened retail stores, restaurant dining rooms, shopping malls and other businesses.

Now, businesses in Lassen County may only operate curbside pickup and delivery services, and the county won’t proceed with opening salons and places of worship, which most California counties just got Newsom’s approval to do.

Earlier this month, before Newsom gave Lassen County the go-ahead to reopen, lawmakers from the area complained there shouldn’t be a “one size fits all” policy for ending social distancing orders and argued that small communities without coronavirus cases should be able to reopen sooner.

“We’re not like Los Angeles or San Francisco. Let’s get back to cooler heads,” Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle, who represents the county, said at the time. “Let the people free.”

Lassen County’s recent outbreak is testing that thinking. County officials are hoping they can contain the virus before it spreads any further and are planning to use contact tracing to track transmission. Korver said it’s his “intention for this to be a very temporary situation.”

The same day Lassen County announced it was scaling back reopenings, the public health officer in California’s Santa Clara County warned that she thought the state was reopening too quickly.

“The state modifications are being made without a real understanding of the consequences of what the last move has been,” the health officer, Dr. Sara Cody, said at a Board of Supervisors meeting. Not taking time to evaluate the safety of social distancing modifications, she continued, risks “an exponential growth in cases, and therefore a risk to social and economic wellbeing.”

Cody’s remarks came after Newsom gave counties permission to reopen salons and resume some gatherings of up to 100 people. However, county officials are allowed to make their own rules stricter than state-level ones.
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Scooter
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Scooter »

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"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Bicycle Bill »

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Perhaps that's why the helpful X is on the wall: someone has done the calculation that if you aim for it, gravity will make you hit the target.

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BoSoxGal
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by BoSoxGal »

Remember that big pool party in Lake of the Ozarks last weekend?

Well one of the attendees started feeling sick the next day and tested positive for covid19 on Monday. As research has indicated, this person was likely highly contagious in the days immediately preceding becoming symptomatic. S/he also visited a handful of other bars and public accommodations.

Yay open economy!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Scooter
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Scooter »

Ontario premier asking to extend province's state of emergency

TORONTO -- Ontario Premier Doug Ford wants the province's state of emergency to be extended another 28 days.

The state of emergency, which was set to expire on June 2, will be extended until June 30 if the motion is passed on Tuesday at Queen's Park.

The province declared a state of emergency on March 17 as the number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario continued to climb.

Included under the province's state of emergency are a number of emergency orders. The emergency orders include restrictions on social gathering limits.

On Monday, Ford said his government is "aggressively" working on a plan to continue reopening the economy.

"If numbers go down, we'll be looking at other stages," Ford said. "I want to get the economy going but we have to do it safely."
I didn't vote for Ford's party and wouldn't piss on him if he were on fire, and a number of failures in addressing the epidemic can be traced directly to policy decisions previously made by his government (such as the explosion of cases and deaths in long-term care homes that were a result of lax inspection practices and policy changes favoring cost cutting in staffing and infection control), but I have to credit him with resisting the yapping of the right wing jackals with their death wish for a premature re-opening of the economy.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

Post by Bicycle Bill »

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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