Plan B Forum

I think the less Biden speaks and the more Trump tweets and whines, the better Biden's chances are for winning. Biden is probably figuring that if you give Trump enough rope, he will hang himself. Biden is quite capable of sounding as stupid as Trump but he's not Trump. That's why he's getting my vote.

My concern is someone has to energize the electorate to vote for Biden; it doesn't appear to be Biden and "not trump" can only go so far. and that's the problem; if potential Biden voters grow apathetic and stay home, it will benefit Trump greatly.

Roy

You could be right BigRR, we certainly saw this dynamic play out in 2016 where Hillary failed to sufficiently inspire enough of the electorate in swing states and there was not enough of the vote against Trump momentum.

But I honestly believe that there is now massive momentum of folks who just want to vote against Trump. There are numerous sources I’ve been following in the Republicans against Trump movement and it appears that there are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of 2016 Trump voters who deeply regret the impact of their 2016 vote and are desperate to get rid of him and for a return to normalcy, however imperfect that might be - that is, requiring a vote for a Democratic Party candidate. The virus and the catastrophic mishandling of the federal response has changed the playing field entirely. Trump is destroying his own candidacy by his inability to get past his immutable character flaws to pivot on this or any other issue, and each passing day and the mounting death toll and the growing pile of outrageous missteps and horrifically callous statements are just drilling it into the electorate that he’s unfit to lead us and if we don’t get rid of him, we will be living an actual American carnage for years to come. I think millions of Americans are ready to walk over ground glass to vote against Trump in November.

2018 happened, and Democrats took back the House of Representatives. I've seen no evidence that the people who voted blue then have changed their minds since then. And I've seen no evidence that Trump has picked up enough new supporters since 2016 to compensate for that 2018 blue wave. I'm becoming cautiously optimistic.

I worry because I have seen evidence that the Right wing Propaganda against Biden is working, And that might lead to a large 3rd party vote instead of a Biden vote.

There isn’t a single 3rd party candidate with access to 270 electoral votes and at this point there isn’t going to be. No 3rd party candidate is mounting any kind of substantive campaign either.

that won't matter if it's enough to drive Bidens support below trump.

Which 3rd party candidate do you assert will siphon substantial votes from Biden?

It doesn’t Matter which just that it’s “a” 3rd party.

And it could well be "none of the above", better known as staying at home and not voting. That's my biggest concern, I think there are a lot of people who don't like Trump and his administration, but that dislike may not be enough to get people to get off their asses and go to the polls, or even mail in a ballot (and when Trump closes the post offices in late October because of the pandemic (you didn't really think he had a change of heart did you? It's part of his (well, his handlers') plan) all bets on mail in ballots are off). In the event Trump wins, we have to get both houses of congress to be democratic.

If voters are becoming apathetic, how do you explain the surge in the mid-term turnout (from 36.7% in '14 to 49.3% in '18) and the fact that Democrats gained 41 seats in that election? I'm not seeing any waning in the enthusiasm of those voters; even the angry Bernie bros seem to be coming to the realization that Biden, plus a Democratic Senate to go along with the Democratic House, is their best—nay, only—shot at any improvement. If anything, it's the Trump supporters who may be starting to feel that, while they may still like Trump more than Biden, they're not sure if they like him enough to actually put up with another four years of him.

Well, I don't really see the erosion of Trump's support, but I can hope it is true. However, re the presidential election, Trump is the same Trump who ran in 2016--we all could easily see what a jerk he was--but Hillary couldn't turn out the vote. Voter participation ebbs and flows, as was the case with the midterm election, but it's much harder to generate the level of support to succeed across the board and garner the electoral votes necessary for election. I just don't think Biden is much better than Hillary in getting that level of support. I sincerely hope I am wrong, and he has my vote (as would anyone who is not Trump), but I am concerned. And, FWIW, do you really think a 49% turnout shows people aren't apathetic; IMHO it shows the majority of them are.

Big RR wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 pm

FWIW, do you really think a 49% turnout shows people aren't apathetic; IMHO it shows the majority of them are.

Okay, point taken. Perhaps I should've just said that, since Trump took office, voters (or at least Democrats) are becoming less apathetic, NOT more.

Voter apathy is definitely a longstanding problem in the USA - where we take our democracy and republic very much for granted. However, in that context 2018 was still a huge leap forward in voter participation in a midterm, and considering that we have had a lot of things going on that average citizens are paying attention to and which show that our democracy IS fragile in the hands of an incompetent wannabe dictator, I expect to see a very strong showing of voters in the upcoming general.

I also think the evidence on Trump is very different today than in 2016; yes we could see he was a jerk then, but now we can see just how totally incompetent he is in the job, and his ‘jerkiness’ is much more readily discernible as the pathological mental illness that it is. The one thing I see over and over in testimonies of former Trump voters is that they thought he was doing a shtick in the 2016 campaign, and that once in office he would President. Now they realize he is incapable of Presidenting.

I am much more concerned about Trump’s efforts to undermine the USPS - his newly appointed Postmaster has just barred overtime and use of sorting machines ostensibly to save funds, both of which will slow the mail considerably which can end up invalidating many mailed ballots, if folks don’t mail them out as early as possible - than I am about voter apathy or 3rd party candidates.

Okay, point taken. Perhaps I should've just said that, since Trump took office, voters (or at least Democrats) are becoming less apathetic, NOT more.

To a certain extent, you are correct, but that can wane due to fatigue of the anti Trump rhetoric. I think it has to be combined with some fervor for support of the candidate who is not Trump if we want to win the presidency.

Big RR wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm

Okay, point taken. Perhaps I should've just said that, since Trump took office, voters (or at least Democrats) are becoming less apathetic, NOT more.

To a certain extent, you are correct, but that can wane due to fatigue of the anti Trump rhetoric. I think it has to be combined with some fervor for support of the candidate who is not Trump if we want to win the presidency.

Personally, I think the anti-Trump sentiment is strong enough to motivate most Democrats and quite a few of the fence-sitters.  It would certainly help Biden if he were to get out and about to spread his message somewhat — perhaps he's holding back, waiting to be officially anointed at the convention in Milwaukee and then will open up the campaign war chest and roll out his blitzkrieg — but Trump's proclivity to "shoot from the lip" still plays in Biden's favor even in the absence of anything else.

And like a lot of other people, come November I'll vote for literally ANYBODY — doesn't matter who; it could Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, or even BSG — so long as they have a 'D' after their name as opposed to casting a vote for Trump or any of the rest of the current crop of Republicans, or a third-party candidate.

-"BB"-

Big RR wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 pm

Trump is the same Trump who ran in 2016--we all could easily see what a jerk he was--but Hillary couldn't turn out the vote.

I think the key word there is "Hillary".

Gob wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:05 am

I think the key word there is "Hillary".

One of the top 3 reasons that for nearly four years we’ve had so much and yet so little hilarity (see what I did there?).

The United States has recorded more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in a 24-hour period as the death toll surpassed 160,000 and Dr Anthony Fauci warned there is 'trouble ahead' for some cities if they don't act now to stop the spread.



Deaths in the US exceeded the grim 160,000 mark on Friday, which is nearly a quarter of the global COVID-19 death toll. The number of positive cases across the US is now at nearly 4.9 million.

The US added 2,060 deaths in 24 hours as of 8.30pm on Thursday, AFP reported, citing the Johns Hopkins University live tally. The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in a 24-hour period was on May 7.

Darren must be out restarting the economy.

Gee, ya think?