We Cannot “Reopen” America

[Econoline]

We Cannot “Reopen” America
No matter when government stay-at-home orders are revoked, the American economy will not reopen. Because the source of the economic shock is not government orders. It's the pandemic.

by JONATHAN V. LAST | APRIL 24, 2020 | 5:21 AM

The movement to “reopen” America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people’s desires to stay home—they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back—whether it is tomorrow or a month from now—it will not result in anything like a “reopening” of the country. And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we’ll be able to adapt to this new reality.

Let’s take a close look at just a couple of examples.

Article continues here.

[Darren]

The author is right on target. There will be lots of economic disruption not to mention the still unresolved oil situation which has put the oil patch into another down cycle.

Expect meat shortages, Hollyweird types not getting their normal cash infusions. Cities like Vegas will obviously be hard hit. I don't expect new car dealers to thrive after reopening. Used car dealers and car repair may do very well as people make do. What does that mean for auto makers? I doubt it's good.

I'm betting many folks will be holding onto discretionary money if they have it. The paycheck to paycheck folks will be looking at working as much as they can.

Will real estate C&B? Maybe in some areas landlords will have to reduce prices to be competitive. One area with a university has already seen landlords dumping property before the pandemic because of the schools predation.

Lots of restaurants may be history especially in cities with over regulation.

We may be in an era where the big get bigger and a severe thinning of the corporate herd is fast arriving.

I recently ran onto the fact that out of 330 million, only 20 million have passports. That tells you something. So does the previous Bernie Madof fallout.

[Darren]

One segment I see going gang busters is state and federal construction projects. Trump would be smart to get the trillions of dollars of infrastructure reconstruction going. I doubt Pelosi would delay that.

[Burning Petard]

When did Trump ever do the smart thing? Federal programs to build infrastructure? The GOP has been fighting against this for the last 20 years.

The problem is the mythological economics of the GOP. It is not Palosi that has stopped federal construction projects, it is Senator Mitch Maconnel..

snailgate

[Darren]

When did Trump ever do the smart thing? Federal programs to build infrastructure? The GOP has been fighting against this for the last 20 years.

The problem is the mythological economics of the GOP. It is not Palosi that has stopped federal construction projects, it is Senator Mitch Maconnel..

snailgate

April 8th

"In briefings with White House reporters, Trump has promoted a $2 trillion plan that would fix roads, bridges and other transportation systems through long-term, zero-interest borrowing. Such a plan would facilitate an economic recovery while also addressing the nation’s infrastructure needs.

“We’re going to do — perhaps — infrastructure, which you wouldn’t have gotten approved before. And now people are looking to do it,” Trump said on April 7. “And the beauty is we’re paying zero interest or very close to zero interest. In some cases, we’re paying actually zero. And the dollar is very strong, and people are investing in the dollar.”

Trump’s funding suggestion, if applied for surface transportation projects, would be a departure from the established system of relying on revenue from fuel taxes.

While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has in the past agreed with the president’s desire to push forward on infrastructure — and had backed the plan of her caucus — on April 3 she pivoted to place more emphasis on emergency aid. Indeed, the massive response to the pandemic has prompted congressional leaders to temporarily set aside what had been long-standing policy items to give priority to recovery efforts."

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-k ... al-support

[Burning Petard]

"In briefings with White House reporters, Trump has promoted a $2 trillion plan. . . " Reporters do not pass revenue bills. The POS-i-c promoted similar stuff in all his State of the Union" speeches and the GOP promptly stood and applauded like good little subjects in a Chinese party conference and then nothing happened, even when the GOP had a majority in both houses of Congress.

snailgate

[liberty]

You guys are optimistic: I see it differently. I see either a reduction in government spending or hyperinflation. No one, not even the federal government can keep borrowing and or printing money forever sooner or later the bill has got to come due. People like school teachers and lawyers and many other government workers are going to take a hit. A poorer society pays lower taxes and has less to pay its workers. As they say, you can’t get blood out of a turnip. The only government workers I see holding on to their money are the police and the reason is that the government is going to need them to keep society from degenerating into anarchy.

I know what you are thinking we can soak the rich and live off their money, but how long do you think that will last. And when they leave the country so does their productivity. A society is either productive or it’s poor.

I hope you guys are right and I am wrong that would make me happy. I love my children and grandchildren want them to live in a rich country with a high standard of living.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Here in SA, some restrictions will be lifted on Friday. Not many. People can buy cigarettes is the only social reboot. Restaurant chains are anticipating a relaxation (30 days or more from Friday) that they say will cost them more money than staying closed. Many - such as the popular Spur chain - have already announced that they will not open until all restrictions have been removed. Movie theatre owners have declared they too will stay closed - mass-market businesses can't afford to be open if only 10 people - or 20 people - or 30 people - can come.

Some top-flight restaurants are soliciting their customers to purchase vouchers now - even if they can't come - because that will help fund rehiring staff. Promotions such as Paul Cluver's (vintner) might help; order wine now, get a big discount on restaurant vouchers; wine to be delivered whenever the government allows it (estimated 60-90 days from now).

It will all be most difficult

[Burning Petard]

If you don't like Mr. Last, you could read Mr. Gates:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation

snailgate

[BoSoxGal]

If you don't like Mr. Last, you could read Mr. Gates:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation

snailgate

24 minute read?! Only nerds like me.

[Darren]

!

[Darren]

!

[RayThom]

... Billy is under investigation. You didn't hear it from me.

Yes, I read where he and his wife created the corona virus in a slop sink in their mansion's basement, next to the water heater. The FBI has video of them injecting the solution into the neighborhood cat population before selling the recipe to many Chinese wet market owners.

What some people won't do for recognition.