2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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Scooter
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2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Too early? Perhaps, but it should be interesting to see how the unfolding health crisis (and, hopefully, its resolution) influences the polling numbers.

I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2016 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.

The current projection:

Biden 348
Trump 190


Image

The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.

A couple of points that jump out:

States where Biden leads by at least 5 points total 251 EVs. He only needs one or two more marginal states to put him over the top. Trump's corresponding total is 186. He would have to win almost every state in which Biden has a marginal lead in order to reach an EV majority.

Trump is being held to a five point lead in Texas, South Carolina and Utah, which Republicans have won by double digit margins in the last several elections. Having to tie down resources in those states (especially Texas) spells trouble for the Trump campaign.

I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden

President Trump’s advisers presented him with the results of internal polling last week that showed him falling behind former vice president Joe Biden in key swing states in the presidential race, part of an effort by aides to curtail Trump’s freewheeling daily briefings on the coronavirus pandemic, according to three people with knowledge of the conversations.

The president spoke with campaign manager Brad Parscale, White House senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner and RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, among other officials, in calls and meetings last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, according to the three people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal internal discussions.

One call on Wednesday — with Parscale patched in from his home in Florida and McDaniel from hers in Michigan — was designed to present grim polling data to the president to encourage him to reduce the frequency of coronavirus briefings or to stop taking questions, after seeing his numbers slip for several weeks, officials said.

Trump resisted the pleas, saying people “love” the briefings and think he is “fighting for them,” a person with knowledge of the Wednesday conversation said. Trump has long been distrustful of polling data presented to him when the numbers are negative, aides say.

The two polls given to Trump — one from the Republican National Committee and another from the Trump campaign — both showed Trump trailing Biden in swing states, officials said. His political team has grown more concerned in recent weeks, as the briefings became more combative while the economy cratered and coronavirus deaths continued to rise.

On Thursday, Trump set off a new uproar with his suggestion that injecting bleach or other disinfectants could help kill the novel virus — prompting a scramble by the administration to contain the damage.

The president held no briefings over the weekend and has taken fewer questions this week, with no appearances in the briefing room. Aides say they are hoping to soon have the president travel outside Washington, meet with governors in the Oval Office and participate in events that are focused on the economy.

RNC and Trump campaign officials did not respond to requests for comment Wednesday on the polling.

Aides described Trump as in a particularly foul mood last week because of the polling data and news coverage of his administration’s response to the pandemic, according to two of the people familiar with the discussions. In one call, he berated Parscale over the polling data, the two people said.

At one point in that call, Trump said he might sue Parscale, though one of the people with knowledge of the comments said he made the remark in jest. News of Trump’s eruption at Parscale was first reported Wednesday by CNN.

Trump told Parscale that he did not believe the polling that had been presented to him, even though it came from the campaign and the RNC.

“I’m not losing to Joe Biden,” Trump said at one point, both of these people said, adding that the president used profanities throughout the call.

After the call, Parscale described it to others as a Trump venting session, these people said.

Trump ranted to other aides for several days about a story in the New York Times that described him as spending much of his day watching television and calling people on the phone.

He was also angry about coronavirus testing — telling advisers that he was unfairly getting crushed in the media over shortages in the United States. Trump this week announced a set of testing guidelines that continued to leave the onus on states to develop their own plans.

“He was just in a terrible mood with everyone late last week,” a fourth official said.

Parscale came to the Oval Office on Tuesday for a long meeting with Trump in which the hatchet was buried, one of the people said. He brought polling numbers that were more positive for Trump, and the president seemed in a far better mood, people with knowledge of the meeting said.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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A statistical tie in Texas may be an outlier, but again, it spells trouble for the Trump cult if they have to expend resources on a state that has been reliably Republican for 40 years.

Biden 390
Trump 148


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Three polls in a row with Texas in contention. No wonder Trump is suing his campaign staff.

Biden 352
Trump 148
Ties 38


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Guinevere »

I usually follow RCP. Their map today is much closer, although today’s national poll is Biden +6.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Bicycle Bill »

From the article:
In a meeting two days before the call, political advisers briefed Trump on data sourced internally and from the Republican National Committee.  The figures showed the president losing ground against Biden in key battleground states.

Advisers had warned Trump to change his tone at daily coronavirus briefings, citing data that showed the negative coverage was fueling a decline in approval ratings.  The president allegedly balked at the guidance, insisting viewers “love” them and think he’s “fighting for them”.  Trump instead pointed to restricted travel and an inability to host campaign rallies as the source of the slump.
Mr. So-called President, sir, may I please be permitted to point out that travel is restricted for EVERYONE, not just Trump supporters (in fact, they are generally the ones that are flouting the travel restrictions!), and that Biden has not been able to host any campaign rallies either?  And he is still whittling away at your leads in the battle-ground states like Texas and Georgia.

November's coming, and for your sake I hope you'll have Mayflower or Allied Van Lines on speed-dial.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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New polls move Texas and Ohio back into Trump's column, barely. Both still appear to be in play.

Biden 334
Trump 204


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

North Carolina is now a tie, but Florida has moved more solidly blue.

Biden 319
Trump 204
Tie 15


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Burning Petard »

What does 'tie' mean for Electoral College Voting? Does that mean an even split in electoral votes because the state does not have 'winner take all"?



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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It means that the polls being used to determine the projection are showing a tie at the time the projection is being made.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Could Georgia go Democratic this year? It will be a costly media market for Republicans to defend it if it remains competitive.

Biden 335
Trump 188
Ties 15


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

North Carolina is once again showing as (barely) Democratic. But more importantly, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all polling for Biden outside of the margin of error. Even if no other state flips away from Trump, peeling away the three states he won by razor thin victories in 2016 would be the whole ball game:

Biden 350
Trump 188


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Guinevere »

Again, RCP has a more conservative take on the map with MI, MN, WI, PA,OH, NH, ME all being toss-ups (although ME is likely the split between the two districts there):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol ... e_map.html
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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I said at the outset that this is a model that doesn't do tossups unless the polling shows an exact tie. If you look at the RCP map without tossups, it is very close to this one, the only differences are that RCP show Ohio for Biden and Georgia for Trump.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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New polls show Ohio flipping (barely) to Biden, and North Carolina flipping back (barely) to Trump. Trump remains behind in Arizona and Wisconsin, and is barely hanging on to Texas. And oh my, what is happening in Utah? Looks like a lot of good Mormon folk are having trouble with the fake Christian president.

Biden 353
Trump 185


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

North Carolina is looking to be ground zero all around this year.

Biden 368
Trump 170


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Gob »

You know, if there were a dozen or so people thinking of voting Trump for a second time, I'd think nothing of it. But the idea that there are WHOLE FUCKING STATES thinking of casting a ballot in that direction, makes me wonder what it would take for the US to regain its sanity./
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

That's enough polls and projections. ed
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

Gob wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm
You know, if there were a dozen or so people thinking of voting Trump for a second time, I'd think nothing of it. But the idea that there are WHOLE FUCKING STATES thinking of casting a ballot in that direction, makes me wonder what it would take for the US to regain its sanity./
Hopefully after the 2016 election you understand the basics of the American electoral college system, and recognize that there is no state within the USA wherein ALL voters voted for Trump.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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