2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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Gob
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Gob »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:53 pm
Back in 2016 when they had the post mortem about why all the polls were so wrong, there was the (to me, believable) theory that many people were just not willing to admit to a pollster that they would vote for Trump. I'm ready to bet that there are those, especially in Texas, who are not willing to admit to a pollster that they will not vote for Trump.
It's a well known phenomena over here...
The shy Tory factor is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the "Tories") was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls. The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has dramatically affected the overall result, but has also been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor
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Burning Petard
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Burning Petard »

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/who- ... nglepage=1

This poll analyzer takes the same errors in the polls as in 2016 and concludes Trump wins the electoral college again.

snailgate

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MajGenl.Meade
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Is it "Depress Everyone Sunday" then? :cry:
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

Biden is polling better than any challenger since 1936.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Econoline
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Econoline »

Burning Petard wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:23 am
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/who- ... nglepage=1

This poll analyzer takes the same errors in the polls as in 2016 and concludes Trump wins the electoral college again.

snailgate
That site seems rather pro-Trump...but what the hell. If Republicans want to be the unrealistically optimistic party this time around they're welcome to go ahead and do that. That analysis assumes that all the polling organizations will make the EXACT SAME mistakes this time that they made in 2016—in other words, it assumes that they (and the American people, for that matter) have learned NOTHING during the past 4 years. IMHO that's...well, an unwarranted assumption (to say the least).

To name just one of the obvious differences between 2016 and 2020: despite the Republicans' best efforts at voter suppression, turnout is likely to be MUCH higher this time around, especially in the battleground states that Trump won by a razor-thin margin last time; that alone could swing the election the other way.
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Burning Petard
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Burning Petard »

Econoline, from your fingers to G-d's eyes.

I pray you are right.

snailgate

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Burning Petard wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:23 am
This poll analyzer takes the same errors in the polls as in 2016 and concludes Trump wins the electoral college again.
Except that his conclusion actually says that:
At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 33% chance of winning the election.
which, while significantly higher than, say Fivethirtyeight.com, which gives Trump a 14% chance of winning, he is, at this point, calling it 2-to-1 for Biden.
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MajGenl.Meade
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

I suppose it depends on the question, or more specifically how you interpret the question. Just based on $$ I am better off than I was in 2016. Dow is up from around 20,000 when Trump was inaugurated to about 28,000 now: that's about a 10% year on year increase.

But I am smart enough to know that (a) that was mostly just an extension of the policies Obama put into place following the 2008 recession, and (b) the price we have paid for this continued runup - deficit spending, lower taxes for those who should be paying more, evisceration of public programs from ACA, through EPA, including IRS auditing and enforcement, to no participation in the Paris Accord and WHO - is way, way too much.

So am I personally better off? Probably in the narrow criterion of how much cash I have, yes I am. But using the larger measure of how those I interact with every day are doing and will do in the future, I am far far worse off.

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Bicycle Bill »

I suppose it depends on what you consider "better off". If you are or were able to set up a 401-K or some sort of retirement tied to a series of numbers based on selling pieces of paper in a building on Wall Street, then maybe you are better off — on paper.

And even then, you need to look back at what happened in 1929 when the over-inflated share prices collapsed and wiped out a helluvalot of 'paper millionaires', and remember that it can and most likely will happen again.

But if you weren't able to, or are of an age where you will not be able to pile 40 years worth of earnings into some such financial instrument, or if you're not a sixty-something boomer who has pretty much gotten everything they need by now — a paid-off house, no mortgage, credit cards that aren't maxxed out, and empty-nesters who aren't trying to raise a family — or a senior citizen who can live off the government dole (Social Security), then the picture looks pretty bleak right about now.
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MajGenl.Meade
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Whatever those people think "better off" means, for so many it translates, bleeds into, surely must inform that first result.

More people find Biden's "qualities" to be presidential (whatever that means). But many of those people switch horses to declare that Trump's policies are more important to them than his "qualities". They will accept the lying weasel because . . . judges, abortion, immigrants, liberal rioters destroying the USA, lamestream media and on and on

Exactly what I fear is behind some of the polling and as has been described by others in this thread.
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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None of these folks seem to be considering their souls in the determination.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

Big RR
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Big RR »

Additionally, when I consider how I am now compared to 4 years ago, I'd have to say much worse; sure, my 401K has grown and my work situation is about the same, but I have also seen over 200,000 of my fellow countrymen die, I can't walk outside without a face covering, I can't go to the movies or a show, my opera subscription has been continued to next season, there is rampant unemployment and people are facing the loss of medical insurance in a pandemic... So I'd have to say from a quality of life perspective, I am far worse off. I'm not blaming Trump totally for this, although he has done more than his share, but I can't see how I am better off or how anyone can say they are. Of course, if all you care about is money, I guess you could say you are better of, but life is more than money to most of us (at least I hope it is). These results don't make sense to me, and are extremely concerning, because I read it as an extreme try to give Trump the benefit of the doubt.

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

The only good news for Trump is one-point leads in Georgia and Ohio; otherwise, not a lot to hang his hat on in multiple polls in several states he would need to win.

Biden 340
Trump 198


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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

Big RR wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:43 pm
Additionally, when I consider how I am now compared to 4 years ago, I'd have to say much worse; sure, my 401K has grown and my work situation is about the same, but I have also seen over 200,000 of my fellow countrymen die, I can't walk outside without a face covering, I can't go to the movies or a show, my opera subscription has been continued to next season, there is rampant unemployment and people are facing the loss of medical insurance in a pandemic... So I'd have to say from a quality of life perspective, I am far worse off. I'm not blaming Trump totally for this, although he has done more than his share, but I can't see how I am better off or how anyone can say they are. Of course, if all you care about is money, I guess you could say you are better of, but life is more than money to most of us (at least I hope it is). These results don't make sense to me, and are extremely concerning, because I read it as an extreme try to give Trump the benefit of the doubt.
You are a mensch. Turns out lots of people aren’t.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

And Georgia flips back to Biden.

Biden 356
Trump 182


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump now leads Biden in Georgia by a point.

Biden 340
Trump 198


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Ohio flips to Biden by a point.

Biden 358
Trump 180


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Sue U
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Sue U »

Our statistician Marge Inoverra hates you.
GAH!

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Obviously some states are too close to call. But it is striking to me, in comparison with past elections, how little movement there seems to have been over several months, and how pretty well all of the states where the outcome may be in doubt are must wins for Trump.
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