2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

WashPo ran a story showing hours long lines in northern Virginia when early voting opened this week. Hopefully that is a sign of the level of commitment to voting we will see all across the country this season.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump has a one point lead in Georgia, but his boasting about flipping Minnesota is going nowhere.

Biden 334
Trump 204


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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

BoSoxGal wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:33 pm
WashPo ran a story showing hours long lines in northern Virginia when early voting opened this week. Hopefully that is a sign of the level of commitment to voting we will see all across the country this season.
How I wish that were true. Seeing a turnout of 60% for a presidential election makes me gag.

But as one of the reasons for early voting usually given is the hope of avoiding the long waits on Election day, these long lines for the early voters concern me. Is it a sign of more chaos to come? Will those impatient people - maybe their waking hours have to be spent working or minding the kids or whatever i.e., in productive activities which means that they are likely to be from the poorer sectors of society - decide they can't afford the time to vote early and thus won't vote at all?

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Bicycle Bill »

BoSoxGal wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:33 pm
WashPo ran a story showing hours long lines in northern Virginia when early voting opened this week. Hopefully that is a sign of the level of commitment to voting we will see all across the country this season.
Articles from 9/20 showed at least one location — Fairfax, VA — where Trump supporters were 'rallying', carrying signs, wearing pro-Trump clothing, and chanting "Four More Years" and other MAGA slogans.  While they were TECHNICALLY not breaking any laws (they were outside the 40-foot limit within which electioneering cannot be conducted at a polling place, as established by VA state law — a ridiculously small distance in my way of thinking, especially in this day and age of personal electronic amplification such as bullhorns and portable PA systems), others claimed that they were allegedly obstructing traffic into and out of Fairfax County Government Center being used for the early voting and clearly attempting to intimidate would-be early voters by forcing them to run this gantlet.
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Ann Selzer shows Iowa polling at a tie.

Biden 334
Trump 198
Ties 6


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Florida joins Iowa in the tie column.

Biden 305
Trump 198
Ties 35


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Two polls show Biden now leading in Ohio.

Biden 323
Trump 180
Ties 35


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Biden is ahead in Georgia, but tied in North Carolina? Something may be off.

Biden 324
Trump 164
Ties 50


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Biden pulls ahead by a point in Florida and North Carolina.

Biden 368
Trump 164
Ties 6


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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

Sitting at an intersection in East Bridgewater Massachusetts where folks are standing with Biden/Harris signs. LOTS of horns tapped by passing cars. Not bad for an area with heavy presence of Trump/Pence MAGA yard decor.

It’s a sort of poll. :P ;)
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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datsunaholic
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by datsunaholic »

One thing I've noticed about campaign signs this year is I am seeing a lot more of them vandalized than in the past.
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Long Run
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Long Run »

We're a month out from election day and there is a dearth of signage here. Our vote by mail packets should arrive in the next week. We had the fires/smoke that continue to linger. This is a one-sided state, so we won't see hide nor hair of either candidate. The nightly protests/riots draw away attention. And, of course, COVID limits interactions. Not sure of the reason, but this is easily the most listless presidential election I can remember here.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Burning Petard »

Gob your bewilderment that entire states could go to Trump reflects your ignorance of the arcane details of the USA presidential election system. Don't feel bad, Hillary's team got it wrong too.

The fundamentals go to the Electoral College system, which is controlled by the state legislators. The GOP has been diligently attacking the state legislature district lines (popularly called Gerrymandering) for 20 years while the Dems pointed proudly "Look at all the research polls were are winning."

Sort of like a MLB player that has a fantastic percentage of stolen bases, but can't hit his IQ and rarely gets on base. If the GOP wins by ONE vote, they get all that state's electors.

It is absolutely essential that the Dems win back majorities in state legislatures, which will control the next district maps.

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Joe Guy
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Joe Guy »

Burning Petard wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:28 pm
.....Sort of like a MLB player that has a fantastic percentage of stolen bases, but can't hit his IQ and rarely gets on base. If the GOP wins by ONE vote, they get all that state's electors.
You should have used a Cricket analogy. Gob knows less now than he did before.... :mrgreen:

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Burning Petard »

But I know even less about Cricket or football (American or the real football game) All I know about American football is that if a foot intentionally touches the ball, you have indicated you don't want it any more--oh yes, one other thing the football is not a ball.

snailgate

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Ohio is now an exact tie.

Biden 350
Trump 164
Ties 24


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Iowa has moved narrowly to Biden and Texas (!!) is now tied.

Biden 356
Trump 126
Ties 56


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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

It would make my heart zing if Texas went blue.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by Scooter »

Two polls in opposite directions plus the previous poll showing a tie combine to move Texas back slightly to Trump.

Biden 356
Trump 164
Ties 18


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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Back in 2016 when they had the post mortem about why all the polls were so wrong, there was the (to me, believable) theory that many people were just not willing to admit to a pollster that they would vote for Trump. I'm ready to bet that there are those, especially in Texas, who are not willing to admit to a pollster that they will not vote for Trump.

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