2020 Presidential Polls and Projections
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:39 pm
Too early? Perhaps, but it should be interesting to see how the unfolding health crisis (and, hopefully, its resolution) influences the polling numbers.
I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2016 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.
The current projection:
Biden 348
Trump 190
The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.
A couple of points that jump out:
States where Biden leads by at least 5 points total 251 EVs. He only needs one or two more marginal states to put him over the top. Trump's corresponding total is 186. He would have to win almost every state in which Biden has a marginal lead in order to reach an EV majority.
Trump is being held to a five point lead in Texas, South Carolina and Utah, which Republicans have won by double digit margins in the last several elections. Having to tie down resources in those states (especially Texas) spells trouble for the Trump campaign.
I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.
I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2016 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.
The current projection:
Biden 348
Trump 190
The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.
A couple of points that jump out:
States where Biden leads by at least 5 points total 251 EVs. He only needs one or two more marginal states to put him over the top. Trump's corresponding total is 186. He would have to win almost every state in which Biden has a marginal lead in order to reach an EV majority.
Trump is being held to a five point lead in Texas, South Carolina and Utah, which Republicans have won by double digit margins in the last several elections. Having to tie down resources in those states (especially Texas) spells trouble for the Trump campaign.
I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.