2020 Senate polls and projections

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Big RR
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Big RR »

Scooter wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:09 am
I think most analysts believe that taking the Senate will be unlikely for Democrats if Trump manages to hold onto the presidency.
I think that's the consensus, but I also think that the chance of the dems taking the senate is a bit higher than winning the presidency, and that we need to treat both races with equal concern. Sometimes, especially in a presidential election year, the legislative races get shifted to a back seat.

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Sue U wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:13 pm
Would like to see a new poll in KY following the McConnell-McGrath debate. And I suspect SC is not as pink as shown.
The only poll in the one-week window is by Morning Consult, whose model has a Republican lean, and has Graham ahead 48-42 All other recent polls have been much narrower.
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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Last I saw they were tied.

Much as I can’t wait to hear the words ‘former President’, I also long to see Mitch and Lindsey on K Street.
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Sue U
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Sue U »

BoSoxGal wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:07 pm
Much as I can’t wait to hear the words ‘former President’, I also long to see Mitch and Lindsey on K Street.
You mean, begging passers-by for spare change?
GAH!

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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Sue U wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:02 pm
BoSoxGal wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:07 pm
Much as I can’t wait to hear the words ‘former President’, I also long to see Mitch and Lindsey on K Street.
You mean, begging passers-by for spare change?
That would be ideal. :mrgreen:
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Crackpot
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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They’ve been saying that James has a better chance in the state (Michigan) than Trump and the senate race is tight. (God I hope not). While i’d Love to have Peters out on his ass (he is to much a much a insider politician) the country can’t afford another two years of Mitch Rule.

Right now the only Republican i’m Considering voting for is Candice Miller for public works commissioner. Even though she positioned herself as a Trump supporter during her second term in the US House it says a lot that she gave up a relatively safe seat in the house for a managerial county level seat. She has always seemed to be a person more interested in running an office well than partisan matters. The Secretary of State ran about as good is it ever had under her watch
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

And now Ossoff and Perdue are tied in Georgia.

Democratic 51
Republican 47
Ties 2


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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Go blue Montanans!
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Steve Bullock was ahead 2 points in a poll that came out today, but when averaged with earlier polls he is still trailing a bit.
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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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I will be surprised if he pulls it out, but pleasantly of course (just because Montana is very backward).

Steve Bullock is a great guy, he was my boss once as AG, did a great job there and has been a great governor in both good and terrible times. He would be an excellent Senator or in the alternative, a fabulous interior Secretary (or other cabinet position).
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Someone finally polled Alaska again, and it moves from a tie to barely Republican.

Democratic 51
Republican 48
Ties 1


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Georgia moves from a tie to Republican by a point.

Democratic 51
Republican 49


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Three new polls with one- or two-point leads in either direction combine to make Iowa a tie. A PPP poll has Barbara Bollier pulling into a tie with Roger Marshall. Did anyone think that Kansas would be in play after Republicans were smart enough to reject Kris Kobach in the primary?

Democratic 50
Republican 48
Ties 2


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Lots of polling with little change. Is Kansas really this close?

Democratic 50
Republican 49
Ties 1


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

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Iowa moves from a tie to Democratic.

Democratic 51
Republican 49


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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Looking at some other polling aggregators in the home stretch:

The Real Clear Politics Senate No Toss Ups map projects the same 51D-49R split.

270 To Win's Senate map shows 49D. 47R and 4 toss ups (Montana, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia).
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Another tie in Georgia.

Democratic 52
Republican 47
Ties 1


Image

Ok, that's completely weird. The other Georgia races should be showing as a dark red, not as a light blue. It displays correctly on the website, not sure what is happening here.

(eta - it turns out the map was correct and the tally was wrong - has now been corrected to reflect that Democrat Raphael Warnock is ahead of Republican Kelly Loeffler in the Georgia special senate election)
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Scooter
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Democrats now have one-point leads in the Montana and Georgia (regular) races.

Democratic 54
Republican 46


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BoSoxGal
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

Scooter wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:30 am
Democrats now have one-point leads in the Montana and Georgia (regular) races.

Democratic 54
Republican 46


Image
This would be so fantastic. *fingers crossed*
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Sue U
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Re: 2020 Senate polls and projections

Post by Sue U »

Would not rule out SC, KS or AK as Dem pick-ups. I think SC and AK are going to be too close to call until very late on election night or even days after.
GAH!

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