Plan B Forum

Posted: **Sun Mar 13, 2011 5:27 pm**

As a newbie in the nuclear power industry I have been doing a lot of reading over the past 8 months about commercial nuclear power and related topics.

Obviously, the ongoing developments in the Japanese nuclear power industry are mind-boggling to the industry. Mother Nature looked at the traditional safeguards and just laughed and swept them aside.

While in one sense the "heart" of a nuclear power plant is the reactor, it is more accurate to say that the cooling pumps are the heart of the process, because they are what keeps everything under control and makes it possible to safely generate electricity from the tremendous heat generated by the nuclear chain reaction.

The cooling pumps are electrical pumps, and are powered by electricity from The Grid. The grid is considered reliable, but as a backup most plants have diesel generators to power the cooling pumps when the Grid goes down. In these cases in Japan, the Grid went down, then the diesel generators were taken out by the tsunami. Truly an, "Oh, shit!" moment.

When there is a problem with the grid or there is a "loss-of-coolant" incident, the fuel rods are automatically withdrawn from the reactor, which begins the process of stopping the chain reaction. For a period of time, however, the reactions continue to take place, and the reactor must be actively cooled for another 24-48 hours after the fuel rods have been withdrawn.

Apparently, with all of the main and backup pumps down, the water in the cooling system super-heated, thus generating a ton of radioactive steam, creating a cloud of explosive hydrogen, and you saw the rest.

Two things are key: The reactor itself is housed in a containment building made of reinforced concrete (12-18" thick), supplemented by stainless steel shielding of 4-5 inches thickness. The ONLY thing that can get out of the containment building is water and some chemicals, and GENERALLY, the radiation is at a high level, but measuring the actual exposure of anyone is problematic based on news reports. The permissible levels of exposure are a small fraction of what will actually cause harm to humans, and as with any kind of radiation (e.g., heat) as you get farther away from the source, the level of exposure decreases dramatically. Newspaper accounts like to say things like, X was exposed to 1000 times more that the maximum allowable dosage. It's difficult to put into context, since the legal limits are so conservative.

Second, there is no chance of a "nuclear explosion." The uranium and other fissible materials in a commercial nuclear power plant are about 1/20 the concentration of bomb-grade materials, and a nuclear explosion is not possible.

Historically, the exposure of The Public in events like this is analogous to what one would experience in a series of chest X-rays, and about as harmful. The evacuation of people around the Japanese reactors was more to deal with people's irrational fears than a reaction to the real dangers. Politics is politics. Most will recall that NOBODY who was exposed at TMI - employees, government inspectors, the public, etc) - ever experienced any radiation-related illnesses or injuries.

Any comparisons with Chernobyl are fatuous. The Japanese reactors are much better protected.

This is a much more serious event than was TMI, but I suspect that 10 years from now, the same will be true of this one. There are injuries from the hydrogen explosion (perhaps "explosions" very soon), and related to the earthquake and tsunami, but history will record that only a handful of people got excessive exposure, and none of them got sick.

A "meltdown" destroys the reactor, but will not cause the groundwater or soil to be contaminated, as the containment vessel is robust enough to keep it all contained. Most reporters are aware of this, but write their stories in such a way as to create the perception that it is a serious danger. It is not.

But it is an economic disaster. Several reactors will be destroyed and written off, at an overall cost that will run in the billions of dollars for Japan and its commercial nuclear power industry. Pumping seawater into the reactors in Japan was a desperate act, and signified that the owners have written off these reactors. The world's nuclear power industry will take a tremendous hit, not necessarily because of the vulnerability that is exposed, but by the exaggeration of the problem by the media and interest groups who are anti-nuke already.

Five years from now, nobody will remember that fewer nuclear plant workers and members of the public were killed as a result of all this than were killed in some small bakery in some little town on the coast of Japan.

Posted: **Sun Mar 13, 2011 5:58 pm**

It is important to keep straight whether you are talking about "radiation" or "radioactive materials". The harm and the danger is very different.

A 'radiation leak' is analogous to the light from a lightbulb shining out your window. The photons will strike matter and either pass through it, be deflected, or be absorbed. An energetic photon like a gamma ray, an x-ray or ultraviolet light can break chemical bonds and cause diseases like cancer. But the photons dissipate very quickly when the leak is stopped and the danger goes away. If radioactive material is released then this is much more serious. That material can stay in the environment and remain dangerous for a very long time. Some radioactive material is especially dangerous when taken internally by eating, drinking or breathing. So the damage to the plants in Japan is a real concern for the future esp if there is further damage to the reactors.

We have heard people bloviate about how indestructable the outer containment buildings are and then one of them just shattered to pieces here.

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:58 pm**

Thanks for the information both.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2011 10:27 am**

There is no such thing as an "outer containment building." There is a containment building. And there are buildings. The other buildings are not, and are never called "containment" buildings.

In this case, none of the uranium or direct fission by-products have escaped the containment building, and even in the case of "meltdown," they will not.

But it is still a very bad situation, just not as bad as many news reporters want to make it seem. Explosions at a refinery or at an auto plant, or at any number of other industrial facilities would likely have resulted in much more serious direct health injury.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:40 am**

I stand corrected...

Sorry. Latest situation report:

Fukushima Daiichi

The hydrogen explosion on March 11 between the primary containment vessel and secondary containment building of the reactor did not damage the primary containment vessel or the reactor core. To control the pressure of the reactor core, Tokyo Electric Power Co. began to inject seawater and boric acid into the primary containment vessels of Unit 1 on March 12 and Unit 3 on March 13. There is likely some damage to the fuel rods contained in Units 1 and 3.

At both Units 1 and 3, seawater and boric acid is being injected into the reactor using fire pumps. On Unit 3, a pressure relief valve in the containment structure failed to open, but was restored by connecting an air pressure to the line driving valve operation.

The water level in the reactor vessel of Unit 2 is steady.

Personnel from TEPCO are closely monitoring the status of all three reactors.

The highest recorded radiation level at the Fukushima Daiichi site was 155.7 millirem at 1:52 p.m. EDT on March 13. Radiation levels were reduced to 4.4 millirem by the evening of March 13. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s radiation dose limit for the public is 100 millirem per year.

Japanese government officials acknowledged the potential for partial fuel meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi Units 1 and 3 reactors, but there is no danger for core explosion, as occurred at the nuclear power station at Chernobyl in 1986. Control rods have been successfully inserted at all of the reactors, thereby ending the chain reaction. The reactor cores at Fukushima Daiichi and Daini power stations are surrounded by steel and concrete containment vessels of 40 to 80 inches thick that are designed to contain radioactive materials.

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:27 am**

I think a large part of the problem is that these reactors are 40 years old operating, 50 years old design.

Nothing should be allowed to run 40+ years unchanged save your grandparents.

While US containment systems are generally regarded as much stronger, much more state of the art, we still have not comissioned any NEW plants since TMI. All we did was finish building the ones in the pipeline.

Might not be the worst idea to upgrade generating capacity with new models....

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:38 am**

Isn't the problem though, that the old ones need decommissioning before new ones are built?

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:16 am**

I leave the scheduling exercise up to others.....as long as they do it....

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:14 pm**

Keep in mind that the commercial nuclear power industry is the only major industry in the world that was not created out of the profit motive.

The first generation of technical experts and designers were government "scientists" and academicians, whose mission was to make this fantastic new technology available to mankind. They didn't care about the cost of safety measures because they believed that the cost of electricity in the future would be close to zero because of the efficiency of the process (they didn't anticipate the NRC being so neurotic about regulations).

That's why these facilities are so safe and so robust. Compare a nuclear power plant to a coke oven. The NPP is designed with safety as a primary concern, and a coke oven is designed to produce coke from coal, and the steel companies have been forced, kicking and screaming, to try to make them less environmentally hazardous.

While the newer plants are much, much safer, the old ones regularly are licensed for twice their projected useful lives because the basic design was so sound.

Moving to another subject (the irresponsible journalism of the past five days or so), despite what you might read,

(a) No reactors have "exploded,"
(b) No containment vessels have been breached in any way,
(c) While a "meltdown" is an economic disaster, and an environmental headache, it presents no major danger to the public at large (the "China Syndrome" is about as scientifically plausible as the existence of Godzilla), and
(d) The fact that politicians ask people to evacuate or keep their doors closed is more of a political decision than a safety necessity.

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:20 pm**

b) is not known though they think it unliky at this point. (for a major one at least)
d) is very much a saty issue and not a political one the Govt would be much better served with proplr doing community cleanup.

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:35 pm**

dgs49 wrote:(b) No containment vessels have been breached in any way ....

Unless one has:

An explosion Tuesday at the Unit 2 reactor at a Fukushima power plant may have damaged the reactor's inner containment vessel, the most serious development yet in the ongoing crisis at the severely damaged facility.

But, hey, why wait for facts to emerge when drawing conclusions in their absence is so much more gratifying?

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:39 pm**

dgs49 wrote:The first generation of technical experts and designers were government "scientists" and academicians, whose mission was to make this fantastic new technology available to mankind. They didn't care about the cost of safety measures because they believed that the cost of electricity in the future would be close to zero because of the efficiency of the process (they didn't anticipate the NRC being so neurotic about regulations).

That's why these facilities are so safe and so robust. Compare a nuclear power plant to a coke oven. The NPP is designed with safety as a primary concern,

From those irresponsible lefty commie pinko anti-business radicals at Financial Times:

Patience wears thin at Tepco’s bungling
By David Pilling
Published: March 15 2011 17:43 | Last updated: March 15 2011 19:58

When the leader of a country asks the company fighting to prevent a nuclear catastrophe “what the hell is going on?”, you know he has departed from the script.

Naoto Kan on Tuesday lost his temper with Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of the explosion-prone Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. He could not understand why he had not been told for a whole hour about a third explosion at the plant in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

After hearing that Tepco was evacuating 740 “non-essential” staff from the complex – leaving only 50 technicians to fight the worst civil nuclear crisis in Japan’s history – it appeared to cross Mr Kan’s mind that Tepco might abandon the plant altogether. Conjuring the language of war, he is reported as saying: “Retreat is unthinkable.”

So far, the Japanese government has managed its rescue operation as well, perhaps even better, than could be expected. It has marshalled tens of thousands of Self Defence Force troops to the tsunami-pounded coastline and welcomed foreign rescue teams. This is a distinct improvement on 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake, when it was more reticent on both counts.

Alas, the same cannot be said for efforts to contain the crisis unfolding in the gaseous innards of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility. Certainly, one must be careful about criticising the response to an unprecedented event. But Tepco, particularly in its communications, has looked more like the Keystone Kops than is desirable in an organisation struggling to prevent a nuclear meltdown.

Tepco’s attempt to impart information has left the public mostly confused and incredulous. At press conferences, anxious-looking junior executives hang their heads like naughty schoolboys, and apologise for “causing inconvenience”, a stock Japanese phrase. In matters of substance, they appear to know little.

“The public relations of Tepco is very poor,” said Shijuro Ogata, a retired Bank of Japan official who has hardly ventured outside his house in a Tokyo suburb since Friday’s earthquake struck. “It is very clumsy and they don’t seem to be so knowledgeable.”

Michael Cucek, a political analyst living in Tokyo, was more damning still about the nuclear agency and Tepco. “They have no crisis management because they were never ready for a crisis,” he said. “The fear is Tepco is not telling the whole truth. They are not in the habit of telling everything they know.”
When it comes to keeping the public informed, the record of Japan’s nuclear industry is not inspiring.

In 1995, there was a cover-up of the extent of an accident at the Monju fast-breeder reactor. Four years later, three workers at the Tokaimura reactor suffered high doses of radiation when safety measures were circumvented. Then in 2002, Tepco was caught falsifying safety data. After a 2007 6.6-magnitude earthquake, Tepco admitted that another plant had not been designed to withstand such tremors. The industry, said Mr Cucek, has had “an attitude problem about safety”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d73a59a-4f2a ... z1Ghpb1v21

Also Reuters:

Japan's nuclear power operator has checkered past
SINGAPORE | Sat Mar 12, 2011 10:22am EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The company at the center of a nuclear reactor crisis following the biggest earthquake in Japan's recorded history has had a rocky past in an industry plagued by scandal.

The Japanese government said on Saturday that there had been radiation leakage at Tokyo Electric Power's (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi plant following an explosion there.

The blast came as TEPCO was working desperately to reduce pressures in the core of a reactor at the 40-year-old plant, which lies 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

In 2002, the president of the country's largest power utility was forced to resign along with four other senior executives, taking responsibility for suspected falsification of nuclear plant safety records.

The company was suspected of 29 cases involving falsified repair records at nuclear reactors. It had to stop operations at five reactors, including the two damaged in the latest tremor, for safety inspections.

A few years later it ran into trouble again over accusations of falsifying data.

In late 2006, the government ordered TEPCO to check past data after it reported that it had found falsification of coolant water temperatures at its Fukushima Daiichi plant in 1985 and 1988, and that the tweaked data was used in mandatory inspections at the plant, which were completed in October 2005.

And in 2007, TEPCO reported that it had found more past data falsifications, though this time it did not have to close any of its plants.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/ ... B420110312

And as for the nuclear power industry's supposed universal commitment to safety above all else, even TEPCO says, "Not so much."
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/news/presen/p ... 25-p-e.pdf

Internal Factors Resulting in Misconduct:

Problems in Quality Assurance System
Problems in Observance of the Code of Ethics and Corporate Culture
Inadequacy of Safety Culture

Posted: **Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:31 pm**

Good examples of irresponsible reporting, eh.

Total injuries and fatalities related to radiation exposure to date.

Zero.

"may have damaged inner core.' Based on what, exactly? Totally speculative.

Posted: **Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:13 pm**

Total injuries and fatalities related to radiation exposure to date.

Of course you're ignoring that the situation can still get very ugly, very quickly.

"may have damaged inner core.' Based on what, exactly? Totally speculative.

Well, TEPCO evacuating nearly all of their workers and leaving just 50 behind might be a hint that things are going very badly for them.

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:29 am**

Okay, I've spent a little time trying to sort this out....

And laying aside all the media ratings driven hysteria, and reading and listening to experts in the field, here's what I believe I understand, (and try to explain in layman's language) :

None of the six nuclear power plants at the Fukushima complex were structurally damaged by the earthquake.

None of the six nuclear power plants at the Fukushima complex were structurally damaged by the tsunami.

What happened was that the earth quake knocked out the electrical grid, and the tsunami knocked out the power from the back up diesel generators, so there was no power source that could kick in to cool the system...

The good news is that on newer generation nuke plants, this is not a problem because they're set up to re-direct the heat generated from the rods to provide the electricity (that would normally have been sent to the grid) to provide a self contained cooling system to provide an effective shut down. Back up generators are not required.

The further good news, is that as bad as this looks, the amount of radiation that has actually been vented represents no meaningful health threat to the Japanese public, (let alone anyone else....I saw the California FEMA director being interviewed this morning, and the level of hysteria about this has apparently reached the point that there's been a run on potassium iodine pills in Sacramento...)

In all fairness, this has not been an entirely media driven hysteria; the absence of full disclosure, and (for lack of a better word...)"inscrutable" way that Tepco and the Japanese government have handled this with the public has contributed to the general unease...

Though it must be noted that one cannot help but have enormous respect for the way the Japanese people themselves have borne up with dignity and honor under the pressures of this trifecta sci-fi movie-like disaster....

No riots, no looting; whatever the explanation, it speaks very well for their society.

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:39 am**

Lord Jim wrote:
No riots, no looting; whatever the explanation, it speaks very well for their society.

Having spent time in Japan, I find them a shockingly polite and ordered society, boy did I feel out of place.

Having said that, the prospect of getting a looted 64 inch plasma TV doesn't quite match up to the thrill of glowing in the dark and having your eyeballs drop out.

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:45 am**

The Japanese are a remarkable society but the good and the bad balance out with appalling equality.

They are also among the most racist people on earth and committed atrocities far worse than the Nazis across Asia during their occupation. (most of which they have refused to acknowledge or atone for). They are deeply hated with justice, by even very young Chinese.

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:49 am**

Lord Jim wrote:.I saw the California FEMA director being interviewed this morning, and the level of hysteria about this has apparently reached the point that there's been a run on potassium iodine pills in Sacramento...)

Yes, but consumers are likely just confusing these with potassium chloride pills what with the Kings leaving Sacramento.

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:53 am**

Hats off to the Fukushima 50. Whatever you need to do to maintain stability, I hope you achieve it.

Posted: **Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:53 am**

http://www.news.com.au/helicopters-cann ... 6023210579

THE US is set to fly an unmanned drone over the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant to help assess its damaged reactors.

The drone, equipped with infrared sensors, will be able to take photographs of the plant in an attempt to give experts a better understanding of what is happening inside the reactors, around which high levels of radiation have been detected, Kyodo said.

News of the drone operation comes as International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Yukiya Amano confirmed reactors No 1, No 2 and No 3 had partially melted down.

He warned that the situation was "very serious" and said that Japanese authorities had also reported concerns about the spent nuclear fuel pools of reactors No 3 and No 4.

Amid reports that there is no water left in at least one of the pools, the focus has shifted to how to cool the possibly overheating nuclear fuel rods at the No 3 and No 3 reactors.

Just hours ago, a Japanese military helicopter has dumped water from a huge bucket onto the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant.

And Tokyo police plan to use a water cannon truck later today in a bid to contain the disaster at the No 1 nuclear power station.

The building housing the No 4 reactor suffered what appeared to be a hydrogen explosion early Tuesday following the devastating earthquake and tsunami last week. A fire also broke out there yesterday.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission warned today that the lack of water was resulting in "extremely high" radiation levels.

"In addition to the three reactors that were operating at the time of the incident, a fourth reactor is also right now under concern. This reactor was shut down at the time of the earthquake," NRC chairman Gregory Jaczko said.

"What we believe at this time is there has been a hydrogen explosion in this unit due to an uncovering of the fuel in the spent fuel pool," he said, noting the explosion happened several days ago but its effects were cause for concern.

"We believe that secondary containment has been destroyed and there is no water in the spent fuel pool and we believe that radiation levels are extremely high which which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."

Meanwhile a nearly completed new power line could restore electric cooling systems in Japan's tsunami-crippled nuclear plant, its operator said today, raising hopes of easing the crisis that has threatened a meltdown.

Tokyo Electric Power Co spokesman Naoki Tsunoda said the new power line to Fukushima Dai-ichi is almost complete. Officials plan to try it "as soon as possible", but he could not say when.

Japan is also facing a mass exodus of expats by their home countries.

Mr Jaczko said that if the United States were facing a similar situation, it would order a much larger evacuation zone than Japan has at 20km.

The US has called on Americans within 80km of the Japan nuclear plant area to leave.

Australians in Japan have also been told to consider leaving the earthquake and tsunami stricken country, due to continuing aftershocks.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has updated its travel advice, citing disruptions to transport, communications, power, buildings and roads.

"Australians in Tokyo and affected prefectures, who do not have a need to be there, should consider departure," the updated DFAT travel advice says.

Australians have been asked to organise their own travel arrangements, with availability on commercial flights departing Japan.

A team of consular officials is based at Narita Airport, near Tokyo, to assist with travel arrangements.

The Fukushima accident has generated a "radioactive plume" which is likely to expand in coming days but does not present any health threat to Tokyo, the head of a French nuclear safety agency said yesterday.

He added, though, that there could eventually be a "strongly contaminated zone" extending up to 60km around the stricken plant.

The cloud's extent "is relatively concentrated on a zone of several dozen kilometres around the site, depending on the fluctuation of the winds, which are generally blowing towards the Pacific Ocean but not always," said Jacques Repussard, from the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN).

"In the coming days, this plume will eventually reach a zone of several hundred kilometres, but our calculations show that, for example in Tokyo, exposure will not have any impact on health in any way," he told a parliamentary committee.

The Fukushima No 1 plant, hit by a quake and tsunami on March 11, lies 250km north-east of the Japanese capital.

"There will be ionising radiation, there will be radioactive particles, but doses will be at levels that are far, far below those that, for instance, would need iodine tablets to be taken," Mr Repussard said.

Potassium iodine tablets are used in nuclear emergencies to protect the thyroid against radioactive iodine, which can cause cancer.

Japan has set up a 20km exclusion zone around the plant and warned people living up to 10km beyond this to stay indoors. More than 200,000 people have already been evacuated.

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