2024 Presidential polls and projections

[Scooter]

Too early? Perhaps, but as in 2020, I will be regularly posting updated polling and projections.

I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2020 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016 and 2020, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.

The current projection:

Trump 282
Biden 256



The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.

I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.

[Burning Petard]

I guess it is fortunate that tomorrow is Tuesday, but not the first Tuesday in November. Way back in 1969 a had a graduate Poli Sci class on elections in the USofA. It was taken as well established that the voters who decided their votes at the last minute, were also the least informed voters and made their choice on very trivial facts. Democracy is scary.

snailgate

[Big RR]

Indeed it is; but, unfortunately, it's the best we have

[BoSoxGal]

After 2016 I don't put much stock in polling.

I'm counting on reason and sanity to prevail in November, but I have a very ambitious fitness regimen ongoing so that I will be prepared to hike across the border into Canada a year from now.

[Big RR]

Sadly, if Trump gets in, Canada will be threatened by Russia on its southern and western borders. On the brighter side, we won't be threatened by Russia, we'll be a satellite state.

[Scooter]

A new poll puts Michigan in Trump's column.

Trump 297
Biden 241

[Scooter]

Latest polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are ties.

Trump 287
Biden 222
Tie 29

[Scooter]

Trump 316
Biden 222

[Scooter]

Trump 301
Biden 237


[/quote]

[MajGenl.Meade]

[BoSoxGal]

A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose

[Scooter]

One can only hope.

I think what has changed in recent elections is that a massive proportion of the electorate holds perceptions that are completely at odds with concrete reality. For example, points 5 and 6 on the economy. Most people believe that the economy is in the toilet, when it has been firing on all cylinders for years. Most people believe there is massive unemployment, when it is at the lowest level in decades. Most people believe that price inflation has hurt them badly, when wage growth has surpassed it. In such an environment, the actual state of the economy is irrelevant when false perceptions predominate.

And we could probably apply a similar lens to several of the other factors in that list.

[Scooter]

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

When people are beginning to make comparisons to 1968, I'm thinking this criterion is now working against Biden as well.

[Scooter]

Trump 316
Biden 222

[Econoline]