2024 Presidential polls and projections
2024 Presidential polls and projections
Too early? Perhaps, but as in 2020, I will be regularly posting updated polling and projections.
I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2020 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016 and 2020, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.
The current projection:
Trump 282
Biden 256
The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.
I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.
I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2020 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016 and 2020, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.
The current projection:
Trump 282
Biden 256
The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.
I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
I guess it is fortunate that tomorrow is Tuesday, but not the first Tuesday in November. Way back in 1969 a had a graduate Poli Sci class on elections in the USofA. It was taken as well established that the voters who decided their votes at the last minute, were also the least informed voters and made their choice on very trivial facts. Democracy is scary.
snailgate
snailgate
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Indeed it is; but, unfortunately, it's the best we have
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
After 2016 I don't put much stock in polling.
I'm counting on reason and sanity to prevail in November, but I have a very ambitious fitness regimen ongoing so that I will be prepared to hike across the border into Canada a year from now.
I'm counting on reason and sanity to prevail in November, but I have a very ambitious fitness regimen ongoing so that I will be prepared to hike across the border into Canada a year from now.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan
~ Carl Sagan
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Sadly, if Trump gets in, Canada will be threatened by Russia on its southern and western borders. On the brighter side, we won't be threatened by Russia, we'll be a satellite state.
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
A new poll puts Michigan in Trump's column.
Trump 297
Biden 241
Trump 297
Biden 241
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 316
Biden 222
Biden 222
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 301
Biden 237
[/quote]
Biden 237
[/quote]
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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- MajGenl.Meade
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan
~ Carl Sagan
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
One can only hope.
I think what has changed in recent elections is that a massive proportion of the electorate holds perceptions that are completely at odds with concrete reality. For example, points 5 and 6 on the economy. Most people believe that the economy is in the toilet, when it has been firing on all cylinders for years. Most people believe there is massive unemployment, when it is at the lowest level in decades. Most people believe that price inflation has hurt them badly, when wage growth has surpassed it. In such an environment, the actual state of the economy is irrelevant when false perceptions predominate.
And we could probably apply a similar lens to several of the other factors in that list.
I think what has changed in recent elections is that a massive proportion of the electorate holds perceptions that are completely at odds with concrete reality. For example, points 5 and 6 on the economy. Most people believe that the economy is in the toilet, when it has been firing on all cylinders for years. Most people believe there is massive unemployment, when it is at the lowest level in decades. Most people believe that price inflation has hurt them badly, when wage growth has surpassed it. In such an environment, the actual state of the economy is irrelevant when false perceptions predominate.
And we could probably apply a similar lens to several of the other factors in that list.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
When people are beginning to make comparisons to 1968, I'm thinking this criterion is now working against Biden as well.8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 316
Biden 222
Biden 222
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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- Econoline
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
— God @The Tweet of God
— God @The Tweet of God
Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 316
Biden 206
Tie 13
There are 3 EVs missing in this tally, can't be arsed to figure out where they are.
Biden 206
Tie 13
There are 3 EVs missing in this tally, can't be arsed to figure out where they are.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 316
Biden 209
Tie 13
No change in the last several days, but the tally was corrected.
Biden 209
Tie 13
No change in the last several days, but the tally was corrected.
Last edited by Scooter on Fri May 10, 2024 2:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections
Trump 306
Biden 219
Tie 13
The Wisconsin poll that changed this map was posted yesterday, but the website wasn't updated until very late so I missed it.
Biden 219
Tie 13
The Wisconsin poll that changed this map was posted yesterday, but the website wasn't updated until very late so I missed it.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
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