2024 Presidential polls and projections

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Scooter
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2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Too early? Perhaps, but as in 2020, I will be regularly posting updated polling and projections.

I like Electoral-vote.com. It averages out the most recent state-by-state polls (in states where no current polling has yet been done, it uses the 2020 results). It doesn't include partisan polling outfits, but it does include pollsters that use robocalling. The algorithm for combining polls is described here. Unlike some other sites, it doesn't lump every narrow lead into a "toss up" category that makes it difficult to identify trends. In past elections, except for 2016 and 2020, its final prediction has been dead on or very close to the actual result. The site also has a number of tools and data sets that are worth exploring.

The current projection:

Trump 282
Biden 256


Image

The darker shade represents a lead of at least 10 points, the lighter shade a lead of 5-9 points, the outlined states a lead of less than 5 points.

I will be providing updates from this site fairly regularly. Others should feel free to contribute other polls and projections that they find to be of interest.
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Burning Petard
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Burning Petard »

I guess it is fortunate that tomorrow is Tuesday, but not the first Tuesday in November. Way back in 1969 a had a graduate Poli Sci class on elections in the USofA. It was taken as well established that the voters who decided their votes at the last minute, were also the least informed voters and made their choice on very trivial facts. Democracy is scary.

snailgate

Big RR
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Big RR »

Indeed it is; but, unfortunately, it's the best we have

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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

After 2016 I don't put much stock in polling.

I'm counting on reason and sanity to prevail in November, but I have a very ambitious fitness regimen ongoing so that I will be prepared to hike across the border into Canada a year from now.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Big RR
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Big RR »

Sadly, if Trump gets in, Canada will be threatened by Russia on its southern and western borders. On the brighter side, we won't be threatened by Russia, we'll be a satellite state.

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Scooter
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

A new poll puts Michigan in Trump's column.

Trump 297
Biden 241


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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Scooter wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2024 2:53 pm
Latest polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are ties.

Trump 287
Biden 222
Tie 29


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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 316
Biden 222


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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 301
Biden 237


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[/quote]
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

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For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by BoSoxGal »

For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Scooter
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

One can only hope.

I think what has changed in recent elections is that a massive proportion of the electorate holds perceptions that are completely at odds with concrete reality. For example, points 5 and 6 on the economy. Most people believe that the economy is in the toilet, when it has been firing on all cylinders for years. Most people believe there is massive unemployment, when it is at the lowest level in decades. Most people believe that price inflation has hurt them badly, when wage growth has surpassed it. In such an environment, the actual state of the economy is irrelevant when false perceptions predominate.

And we could probably apply a similar lens to several of the other factors in that list.
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Scooter
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
When people are beginning to make comparisons to 1968, I'm thinking this criterion is now working against Biden as well.
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 316
Biden 222


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Econoline
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Econoline »

MajGenl.Meade wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2024 5:57 pm
Image
Popeye,disgustipated.jpg
People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
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Scooter
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 316
Biden 206
Tie 13


Image

There are 3 EVs missing in this tally, can't be arsed to figure out where they are.
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Scooter
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 316
Biden 209
Tie 13


Image

No change in the last several days, but the tally was corrected.
Last edited by Scooter on Fri May 10, 2024 2:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 306
Biden 219
Tie 13


Image

The Wisconsin poll that changed this map was posted yesterday, but the website wasn't updated until very late so I missed it.
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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 306
Biden 232


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"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

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Re: 2024 Presidential polls and projections

Post by Scooter »

Trump 306
Biden 228
Tie 4


Image
[/quote]
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

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