Who's smoking crack now, LJ, huh?
Well, Sue if you believe that Sarah Palin will be the GOP Presidential nominee, then I'm afraid
you are still the one suckin' on the pipe....
I remain convinced that Palin is not going to run for the nomination; (if she did she would lose and lose badly) that's nothing but a 'shroom dream of the left.
What Palin is doing now fits quite well with what I predicted; that she would go through a lot of motions to act like she was going run to improve the market and brand value of Palin Inc.
The brand took a bit of a hit recently when Trump hoved on to the scene and sucked up a lot of the media oxygen that was previously going to Sarah. Her latest moves are nothing but an attempt to restore some luster to her celebrity cache...
The bottom line is that at the end of the day the GOP nominee is almost certain at this point to be one of two people; Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty.
Romney has been criticized for running such a low profile campaign, but if I were advising him, I would tell him to do
exactly what he has been doing. At this juncture, it is precisely the best strategy for him.
Romney has been the huge beneficiary of the developments in the GOP race over the past couple of months. Three candidates who might have been able to mount a serious challenge against him; Barbour, Huckabee and Daniels, (I was particularly disheartened by Daniels decision not to run) have bowed out, and the others in the race...Gingrich, Bachmann and Santorum...have been busy making fools of themselves....
Like Napoleon said, "Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself." At this point in the game, Romney is playing his cards exactly right.
I've never been a big fan of Romney's ( he has the distinction of being the one major GOP contender during the '08 race that I
didn't seriously consider supporting) and I'm no expert on Pawlenty, (the one thing I can be certain of, of course, is that he
nowhere near as bad as some on this board have portrayed him)
All things being equal, I would much prefer Jeb Bush to either one of them, (but of course all things
aren't equal since Jeb would have a "George problem") However barring something truly bizarre, I fully expect to support my party's nominee.
If I had to bet at this point, I would bet on Obama being re-elected, albeit by a much smaller margin then the last time around, for a whole host of reasons.
BTW, this is
very unusual...It's very rare for an incumbent President who wins re-election to do so by a lesser margin than he was elected originally. I had thought that FDR might have been an example of this, but I checked, and he actually won by a greater margin in '36 than in '32. (Though his margins went down progressively in the next two elections) Aside from that I think you'd have to go back into the 1800s to find an example. (If indeed it's
ever happened)
But the' 08 election had a perfect storm convergence of factors that produced Obama's almost-landslide that will not be present in 2012. Add that to an economy that is likely to still be largely in the toilet; (I read a couple of days ago that the White House is anticipating an election time unemployment rate of 8.2%...and
they are likely to be taking the most optimistic projections they can) and no matter who the GOP nominee is the race is almost certain to be closer it was the last time.
On paper, the 2012 race is
very winnable for the GOP...Obama is vulnerable on numerous fronts....
But the problem is, that at least right now, I don't see either of my party's two most likely nominees being strong enough to push a close defeat into a close victory...
There simply is no Ronald Reagan available...
