Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com. With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.
Romney has already announced that he's skipping the Iowa straw poll, and in all likelihood will skip the caucuses as well....(Just as McCain did in '08)
As I've mentioned before, Iowa GOP voters are more conservative, (particularly on social issues) than Republican voters generally, and Iowa GOP caucus goers are even more conservative than that....
Historically the Iowa caucuses have not been a great predictor of the GOP nomination in years where the nomination is being genuinely contested....
Mike Huckabee won them in '08, and you may recall that in '88, George HW Bush finished third behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson.... ...
The big story from that poll is how poorly Pawlenty is doing; if he finishes badly in Iowa his campaign is history....
And of course all bets will be off on these numbers if Perry gets in the race.
So the answer is, that if you think these numbers mean that Michelle Bachmann will be the GOP nominee, you're the one who's still
Again I'm more than a little amused by the sheer weirdness of your electoral system, and would like to add that I think that if Palin skips the Arkansas straw poll, and Bachmann does well in the Vegas caucus, then Mitt Romney may get an upper third in the rerun of New Jersey lottery. That still depends on who is quickest off the mark in the Nevada 400 metres, and whether or not the ghost of Ike decides to participate in this years roller disco championship.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Gob wrote:Again I'm more than a little amused by the sheer weirdness of your electoral system, and would like to add that I think that if Palin skips the Arkansas straw poll, and Bachmann does well in the Vegas caucus, then Mitt Romney may get an upper third in the rerun of New Jersey lottery. That still depends on who is quickest off the mark in the Nevada 400 metres, and whether or not the ghost of Ike decides to participate in this years roller disco championship.
Spot-on analysis, Gob. I understand there's an opening for a pundit at Fox News; are you any good with blackboards, conspiracy theories and shilling for gold coin distributors?
C'mon, Jim, you know me, I'm an optimist! Besides, everyone knows New Hampshire is a gimme for Romney, so nobody's gonna think anything of a landslide win there; but after that it's Loony Toons time in SC with Jim "I Backed The Masturbation Witch Over Mike Castle" DeMint and the desert dipshits in Sharron-Angle-land. Bring the crazy!!!
Sue U wrote:
Spot-on analysis, Gob. I understand there's an opening for a pundit at Fox News; are you any good with blackboards, conspiracy theories and shilling for gold coin distributors?
I'm a man of many talents Sue!
Now then, if I am reading Jim's reply to the OP properly, and I stand to be corrected on this, the situation is this; there will be a number of dog and pony shows at various "key cities" around the US, to which the prospective Repubbie candidates may tout their wares. However, these are virtually meaningless as candidates can attend or not, as they please, and people who are not now candidates may decide to become candidates at some unspecified future dates.
Am I up to speed so far?
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Primer on the American Political System as it Applies to the Presidency:
Anyone who wants to can run for President. You don't have to be an office holder, a member of a political party, competent, educated, experienced, or pretty.
It costs a ton of money to run. So you have to either be rich yourself, have some rich supporters, be very personally popular, or get the backing of one of the major parties. Otherwise you are just wasting time and bandwidth.
People basically decide to run for president out of some combination of a huge ego and dissatisfaction with the status quo. "I think I can do better than (this clown/these clowns)."
Our current President is perceived to be doing a fairly horrible job. He ran on the elusive promises of "hope" and "change," but has continued many of his predecessors unpopular policies, and wasted a couple trillion dollars saving the jobs of govenment employees, feeding the traditional government teat-suckers, and dishing out favors to groups favored by the Democrat Party.
Democrat challengers are afraid to vocalize their interest right now, realizing how vulnerable Barry is, and not wanting their efforts to hurt the party in the long run. He could very go into the convention with no Democrat opponent.
But every Republican with more than two supporters believes that (a) s/he is personally wonderful, (b) s/he has tremendous political support, and (c) s/he can surely do a better job than the incumbent.
As a result, we have a lot of people who are currently running for President (to the extent that is possible at this early stage), and an even greater number who are considering a run. In addition, there are a couple who claim to have no interest in running, but have a fairly good number of people who want them to run and would support them if they did (e.g., Governors Perry and Christie).
It is going to take a long time for all these Republican candidates, potential candidates, and would-be candidates to be whittled down to three or four viable candidates who can fight it out for the nomination. The caucuses and primaries in the early states get more attention than they should, and their voters don't actually reflect the priorities of the national voting public, but it is possible for a candidate to make an early investment there, build momentum, and gain the upper hand in the overall race.
There are several Republicans in the field (as described above) who would make good Presidents - all would be better than Barry O - but my party has a tradition of nominating the guy who has paid his dues, so to speak, and if that trend continues it will be Mr. Romney.
The Presidency is definitely ours to win; we just have to avoid fucking it up like we did last time.
Anyone who wants to can run for President. You don't have to be an office holder, a member of a political party, competent, educated, experienced, or pretty.
Just a natural-born citizen (birthers?) and at least 35 years of age.
I might even throw my hat in
Your collective inability to acknowledge this obvious truth makes you all look like fools.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
