A Santorum Surge?
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:51 pm
The latest polls now show him as the main beneficiary of the Gingrich collapse, moving into third, 6-8 points behind Romney and Paul (Perry and Gingrich are close behind with Bachmann trailing them in single digits)
As I've said before, I have frankly been surprised that this didn't happen sooner. It seemed to me that after Bachmann and then Perry went south that Santorum was the most logical candidate in the race for the social conservative (particularly the religious evangelicals) faction of the Iowa Caucus vote to gravitate to. (Which as I have pointed out, represents a disproportionately large percentage of GOP Iowa caucus participants.)
Santorum has certainly really lived the kind of life that these folks claim to believe is important to a far greater extent than either Cain, or God forbid Gingrich, yet for some reason they had their surges before Santorum did.
Part of that I'm sure has to do with money. Rick has worked his ass off in Iowa, doing it the traditional retail way, but up until last week he had spent a paltry $18,000 on media buys. However, in the past week, a Rick Santorum Super PAC has entered the field and dropped $222,000 into the race.
Also in the past week, Santorum has picked up several endorsements from Iowa Evangelical leaders (the most important thing about this is that these folks bring organizations to his efforts that are good at getting their people to the Caucuses; this logistical support played a major in Huckabee's upset win in Iowa ).
I believe that Santorum is probably also benefiting from all the negative advertising that has been aimed by the other candidates at each other. (Particularly Perry, Paul and Gingrich ) No one has been beating up on Santorum, (because his surge has come so late) and it's frequently the case that when you have candidates bitch slapping each other the one who isn't in the fight becomes more attractive to many voters. (This is what happened in the Democratic Caucuses in'04, when Gephardt and Dean were wailing the tar out of each other and John Kerry snuck up from behind.)
And finally, these improved poll numbers will have a positive affect of their own for Santorum; some voters who might have found him attractive as a candidate but were reluctant to support him because they didn't think he could win will probably now take another look at him.
Given the way that all of these factors are coming together at just the right time, it's not inconceivable that Santorum could actually surge to a second place finish, or even a narrow win in Iowa.
Santorum is far to my right on "social issues", (I've never made any secret of the fact that I'm really not much of a "social conservative"...I really couldn't care less what consenting adults choose to do in private, and while I'm certainly no fan of abortion, I believe that outlawing it would only make matters worse) but frankly I don't much care about a Presidential candidate's positions on these issues, and never vote based on them, because as a practical matter Presidents have almost no say about these things. (Congress, the state legislatures and the courts are where this stuff gets thrashed out)
The only time I would make an acceptation on this is if I got the impression a candidate was "obsessed" with these issues and on some sort of crusade about them. (Pat Robertson, for example)
I certainly don't get that impression about Santorum. I'm sure he makes the "values" points on the stump in Iowa, (though he's certainly been less obnoxious and over the top about it than scripture quoting "Reverend Perry" ) but in the debates and in interviews, he always stresses his foreign policy knowledge and positions, (which I largely agree with) and his emphasis on private sector based economic solutions. He's good on his feet and never loses his cool or good humor even with hostile interviewers, who he is not afraid to interact with, unlike some candidates. Hell a couple of nights ago he did an extensive interview with that left wing MSNBC clown, Crazy Ed Shultz...(I love that guy's program...it's the best original comedy on television)
I know that in the past, Santorum has said some things that some folks have found personally offensive, but he is hardly a gaffe machine. (like Perry Bachmann and Gingrich) For the most part, he seems to think before he speaks, and he exhibits a fairly broad knowledge and grasp of public policy issues.
My biggest problem with Santorum is electability. (Though I certainly think he's more electable than Gingrich; Santorum simply comes across as too affable, relaxed and easy-going a person for Team Obama to be able to credibly paint him as a mean, vicious, untrustworthy narcissist, which is the strategy we can definitely expect if Newt is the nominee)
But Santorum lost his last re-election bid in Pennsylvania by 18 points. (though it's also true that he did win statewide election for the Senate in Pennsylvania twice, and his loss came in 2006, which was a terrible year nationally...but never-the-less, 18 points is a serious spanking.) On the other hand, all the polling indicates that a Romney candidacy could put Pennsylvania in play.
As I've said before, I have frankly been surprised that this didn't happen sooner. It seemed to me that after Bachmann and then Perry went south that Santorum was the most logical candidate in the race for the social conservative (particularly the religious evangelicals) faction of the Iowa Caucus vote to gravitate to. (Which as I have pointed out, represents a disproportionately large percentage of GOP Iowa caucus participants.)
Santorum has certainly really lived the kind of life that these folks claim to believe is important to a far greater extent than either Cain, or God forbid Gingrich, yet for some reason they had their surges before Santorum did.
Part of that I'm sure has to do with money. Rick has worked his ass off in Iowa, doing it the traditional retail way, but up until last week he had spent a paltry $18,000 on media buys. However, in the past week, a Rick Santorum Super PAC has entered the field and dropped $222,000 into the race.
Also in the past week, Santorum has picked up several endorsements from Iowa Evangelical leaders (the most important thing about this is that these folks bring organizations to his efforts that are good at getting their people to the Caucuses; this logistical support played a major in Huckabee's upset win in Iowa ).
I believe that Santorum is probably also benefiting from all the negative advertising that has been aimed by the other candidates at each other. (Particularly Perry, Paul and Gingrich ) No one has been beating up on Santorum, (because his surge has come so late) and it's frequently the case that when you have candidates bitch slapping each other the one who isn't in the fight becomes more attractive to many voters. (This is what happened in the Democratic Caucuses in'04, when Gephardt and Dean were wailing the tar out of each other and John Kerry snuck up from behind.)
And finally, these improved poll numbers will have a positive affect of their own for Santorum; some voters who might have found him attractive as a candidate but were reluctant to support him because they didn't think he could win will probably now take another look at him.
Given the way that all of these factors are coming together at just the right time, it's not inconceivable that Santorum could actually surge to a second place finish, or even a narrow win in Iowa.
Santorum is far to my right on "social issues", (I've never made any secret of the fact that I'm really not much of a "social conservative"...I really couldn't care less what consenting adults choose to do in private, and while I'm certainly no fan of abortion, I believe that outlawing it would only make matters worse) but frankly I don't much care about a Presidential candidate's positions on these issues, and never vote based on them, because as a practical matter Presidents have almost no say about these things. (Congress, the state legislatures and the courts are where this stuff gets thrashed out)
The only time I would make an acceptation on this is if I got the impression a candidate was "obsessed" with these issues and on some sort of crusade about them. (Pat Robertson, for example)
I certainly don't get that impression about Santorum. I'm sure he makes the "values" points on the stump in Iowa, (though he's certainly been less obnoxious and over the top about it than scripture quoting "Reverend Perry" ) but in the debates and in interviews, he always stresses his foreign policy knowledge and positions, (which I largely agree with) and his emphasis on private sector based economic solutions. He's good on his feet and never loses his cool or good humor even with hostile interviewers, who he is not afraid to interact with, unlike some candidates. Hell a couple of nights ago he did an extensive interview with that left wing MSNBC clown, Crazy Ed Shultz...(I love that guy's program...it's the best original comedy on television)
I know that in the past, Santorum has said some things that some folks have found personally offensive, but he is hardly a gaffe machine. (like Perry Bachmann and Gingrich) For the most part, he seems to think before he speaks, and he exhibits a fairly broad knowledge and grasp of public policy issues.
My biggest problem with Santorum is electability. (Though I certainly think he's more electable than Gingrich; Santorum simply comes across as too affable, relaxed and easy-going a person for Team Obama to be able to credibly paint him as a mean, vicious, untrustworthy narcissist, which is the strategy we can definitely expect if Newt is the nominee)
But Santorum lost his last re-election bid in Pennsylvania by 18 points. (though it's also true that he did win statewide election for the Senate in Pennsylvania twice, and his loss came in 2006, which was a terrible year nationally...but never-the-less, 18 points is a serious spanking.) On the other hand, all the polling indicates that a Romney candidacy could put Pennsylvania in play.