Two Debates Coming Up This Weekend...
Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:30 pm
One tonight on ABC (6PM PST) and tomorrow morning, NBC and MSNBC (jointly sponsored with Facebook; it starts at 6AM out here, so I may opt for the replay, though I seem to get up really early even on the weekends)
With so many candidates for the first time having a good reason to go after Romney, it should be entertaining....
Here's what I think we can expect, and some suggestions I would make:
Romney: If I'm Romney, sitting on a nearly 30 point lead in New Hampshire, I really don't want to get in a pissing match with any of my rivals. If they make charges that have to be answered, I'll answer them, with good humor and try to stay trained on Obama. What I most want to do is look Presidential, and avoid looking petty or thin skinned.
It's going to be a challenge for him, because he's going to take incoming like hasn't had it up to now, and he does have a proclivity for getting testy and petulant when under sustained attack. He needs to fight that impulse.
Paul: I think Paul can be expected to fire off like a rotating garden sprinkler on high speed, lashing out at Romney, Gingrich and Santorum, (he probably won't bother with Perry, unless Perry baits him) with most of his fire aimed at Romney....
Gingrich: No surprise what's going to happen here. Newt's got nothing to lose (which will probably make his performance the most entertaining of the group) and he's made very clear his whole raison darte at this point is to take down Romney. There may be a little part of him that thinks he might still be able to come back, but basically he's Ahab and Romney is Moby Dick.....
Perry: Tough to know for sure what his approach will be. His first objective of course, as it has to be with every debate, is to manage to get through to the end of it without looking like a complete chuckle head. Assuming he meets that bar, since he is essentially skipping New Hampshire to make a last stand in South Carolina, a strong argument can be made that he shouldn't join the Romney bashing, but instead focus primarily on Santorum who has vaulted into the mid 20's in the latest polls in South Carolina. It certainly makes more sense for Perry to focus on trying to pry support away from Santorum rather than Romney.
(BTW, Perry's decision to stay in the race is yet another Godsend for Romney. He should send his campaign a big fat check. Say what you want about Mitt if you look at what's happened in this course of this campaign, he is one lucky sonofabitch... )
Huntsman: It's do or die time for John, (barring a miracle, it's gonna be die) so he will obviously be going all out against Romney. (Though I don't expect Huntsman's "all out" will be any where nearly as entertaining as Gingrich's "all out")
Santorum: Rick has got the toughest job, and the most difficult needle to thread. First of all he has to avoid getting baited into becoming testy and shrill, which like Romney, he also has a proclivity for. He needs to stay on the smiling, good humored, self-confident track. This will be the first time that large numbers of people will be evaluating him as a possible President, and he needs to come across as someone who looks and acts like a person they can see in that role. He has the intellect and the breadth of public policy knowledge to do that and he comes across quite well when avoids the sneering snarky routine....He needs to have the discipline to do this, no matter what brick bracs come his way.
He also needs to be able to avoid giving long answers to questions, particularly on the social issues, that I'm sure the questioners will repeatedly toss at him. Santorum, unlike most politicians, actually tries to give detailed responsive answers to the questions he is asked; while this is a laudable character trait, it's self-destructive at this level of the political game, where things you say will be taken out of context and presented in 30 second or less sound bites by folks who do not bear you any good will. The longer you take answering hostile questions, the more words you are producing to be taken out of context.
He can expect the moderators to try and get him to do what some college kids were able to get him to do earlier this week. He needs to resist this impulse with every fiber of his being. When asked about social issue questions, he should keep his answers general and brief, say that these are things that he believes as part of his faith, and then immediately start talking about he's going to bring good paying manufacturing jobs back to the US.
He needs to try and keep his presentation, not just in these debates, but in general, as close to the kind of message and persona he projected in his speech after the Iowa Caucus, which was probably the best and most connecting address given by any GOP candidate in the field since this campaign began.
With so many candidates for the first time having a good reason to go after Romney, it should be entertaining....
Here's what I think we can expect, and some suggestions I would make:
Romney: If I'm Romney, sitting on a nearly 30 point lead in New Hampshire, I really don't want to get in a pissing match with any of my rivals. If they make charges that have to be answered, I'll answer them, with good humor and try to stay trained on Obama. What I most want to do is look Presidential, and avoid looking petty or thin skinned.
It's going to be a challenge for him, because he's going to take incoming like hasn't had it up to now, and he does have a proclivity for getting testy and petulant when under sustained attack. He needs to fight that impulse.
Paul: I think Paul can be expected to fire off like a rotating garden sprinkler on high speed, lashing out at Romney, Gingrich and Santorum, (he probably won't bother with Perry, unless Perry baits him) with most of his fire aimed at Romney....
Gingrich: No surprise what's going to happen here. Newt's got nothing to lose (which will probably make his performance the most entertaining of the group) and he's made very clear his whole raison darte at this point is to take down Romney. There may be a little part of him that thinks he might still be able to come back, but basically he's Ahab and Romney is Moby Dick.....
Perry: Tough to know for sure what his approach will be. His first objective of course, as it has to be with every debate, is to manage to get through to the end of it without looking like a complete chuckle head. Assuming he meets that bar, since he is essentially skipping New Hampshire to make a last stand in South Carolina, a strong argument can be made that he shouldn't join the Romney bashing, but instead focus primarily on Santorum who has vaulted into the mid 20's in the latest polls in South Carolina. It certainly makes more sense for Perry to focus on trying to pry support away from Santorum rather than Romney.
(BTW, Perry's decision to stay in the race is yet another Godsend for Romney. He should send his campaign a big fat check. Say what you want about Mitt if you look at what's happened in this course of this campaign, he is one lucky sonofabitch... )
Huntsman: It's do or die time for John, (barring a miracle, it's gonna be die) so he will obviously be going all out against Romney. (Though I don't expect Huntsman's "all out" will be any where nearly as entertaining as Gingrich's "all out")
Santorum: Rick has got the toughest job, and the most difficult needle to thread. First of all he has to avoid getting baited into becoming testy and shrill, which like Romney, he also has a proclivity for. He needs to stay on the smiling, good humored, self-confident track. This will be the first time that large numbers of people will be evaluating him as a possible President, and he needs to come across as someone who looks and acts like a person they can see in that role. He has the intellect and the breadth of public policy knowledge to do that and he comes across quite well when avoids the sneering snarky routine....He needs to have the discipline to do this, no matter what brick bracs come his way.
He also needs to be able to avoid giving long answers to questions, particularly on the social issues, that I'm sure the questioners will repeatedly toss at him. Santorum, unlike most politicians, actually tries to give detailed responsive answers to the questions he is asked; while this is a laudable character trait, it's self-destructive at this level of the political game, where things you say will be taken out of context and presented in 30 second or less sound bites by folks who do not bear you any good will. The longer you take answering hostile questions, the more words you are producing to be taken out of context.
He can expect the moderators to try and get him to do what some college kids were able to get him to do earlier this week. He needs to resist this impulse with every fiber of his being. When asked about social issue questions, he should keep his answers general and brief, say that these are things that he believes as part of his faith, and then immediately start talking about he's going to bring good paying manufacturing jobs back to the US.
He needs to try and keep his presentation, not just in these debates, but in general, as close to the kind of message and persona he projected in his speech after the Iowa Caucus, which was probably the best and most connecting address given by any GOP candidate in the field since this campaign began.
