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Do the debates matter?
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:11 pm
by Gob
well, do they?
US President Barack Obama, meet your Republican opponent Mitt Romney. Live. In the flesh.
It is quite a moment.
This ill-tempered US election campaign has largely been about both sides drawing a hideous caricature of their opponent producing endless adverts, stuffed with half-truths and quotations taken out of context.
This is the first chance America has had to look into the eyes of the two men who would be president and to hear what they say to each other, face to face.
The experts I have been talking to say that, yes, in a close election the debates can matter.
What matters most is not the closely drawn intellectual argument about rival policy platforms, but the body language and the pithy one-liner that sums up an opponent's faults.
The tone was set by the very first presidential TV debate: John Kennedy vs Richard Nixon in 1960. One commentator at the time said JFK looked like "a bronzed warrior" whereas Tricky Dicky appeared sick, unshaven and sweaty.
Ronald Reagan's put-down of Jimmy Carter in 1979, "There you go again", encapsulated the feelings of many that the incumbent was a bit wordy and long-winded, and allowed Reagan to appear sharp and unthreatening.
Above all, the candidates must avoid blundering, making some stray error of fact or tone that makes them appear ineligible for high office. Avoiding the pitfalls is priority number one.
I am told President Obama sees debates as a "jump-ball" - a moment when a team can grab control of a game from a difficult position.
So he would probably settle, to change sporting metaphors, for a no-score draw.
His conference speech was judged "workmanlike" (by me, among others) and he would probably settle for a similar verdict on this debate.
Mr Romney, on the other hand, is behind in most opinion polls - badly so in the vital swing states - and needs a win. But the debates serve another purpose.
One of my most interesting recent interviews was with a professor of political communication, Kathleen Jamieson, who made the point that while debates only occasionally change minds, they do leave voters much better informed.
She sees that as valuable in itself, an exploration of how candidates would govern - a kind of manifesto in a country that does not go in for manifestos, a promissory note for the next four years, during which one of the two will be in the White House.
I will be tweeting as the debate happens, technology willing, and blogging when it is over.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 10:55 pm
by liberty
It will determine who I vote for and it won’t necessarily be the winner. What matters to me is not how well they say it but what they say. Liberals are usually better for social programs and conservative are better guardians of freedom, but what matter now is the economy; someone has got to turn things around. However, I see no advantage in a prosperous society that allows the helpless to suffer and die.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:19 am
by Crackpot
couple thoughts.
Romneys hair isn't flawless (a little too long a little sloppy). an attempt to humanize him?
THese guys are boring.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:40 am
by Gob
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:45 am
by Gob
Obama looks like shite and is rambling...
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:54 am
by Crackpot
they both don't look good.
GOB. NO!!!
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:00 am
by RayThom
At least not these three debates. I read earlier today that almost 93% of the electorate has had their mind made up for well over a month and, barring a major faux pas over the course of these debates, are not likely to change. It went on to say that maybe 25% of the electorate will be watching the debate tonight. Ironically, the large majority of this 25% are those who, in fact, have their minds made up, and very few of the "undecided" 7% will be among this audience. So, it turns out that our great president, Barack Hussein Obama, and the creator of Obama-Care, and his opponent, Romney, are mostly preaching to their perspective choir. Hallelujah, brother Barack.
I'm watching the "debate" as I type. Both men appear to be remaining fairly cool but Romney is starting to get a tad hyper and beginning to stutter. Depending on what side of the aisle you're on I'm guessing the media and pundits will claim it a draw.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:46 am
by Sue U
I thought Romney did a fine job. Obama seemed a bit off his game. But neither one stumbled and both presented their views of the issues capably. I doubt it changed anyone's mind
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:36 am
by Gob
From what I saw, and heard on the drive into work, Romney romped this one.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:28 am
by Lord Jim
Romney came to play, Obama really didn't...
Even hard core Democratic partisans that I watched after the debate like James Carville and Ed Schultz admitted that Romney clearly won the debate...
It was without question the finest performance I have ever seen Romney give, speech or debate, and one of the poorest I've ever seen Obama deliver....
It wasn't that Obama had any gaffes, he was just completely flat, while Romney, (without becoming petulant, as he can on occasion) was high energy and completely prepared...
I don't expect this will be decisive, but the polls will now tighten again....
Obama could have put Romney away tonight, with even a tie, but he didn't do it...Obama seemed like a man who just didn't want be there...(He reminded me almost of George HW Bush in the '92 debate where he kept looking at his watch...)
Instead of putting him away, he let him back in the game....
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:30 am
by Gob
Obama looked tired and confused, he stumbled, his replies lacked cut.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:40 am
by Joe Guy
I believe an unbiased viewer would give the "win" to Romney based only on style, not substance.
I doubt any minds were changed.
Obama's weakness was in not taking advantage of opportunities to use Romney's own words against him.
The thing is - most Obama supporters could fill in the blanks so they would only be upset that Obama didn't say what they were thinking he should have said.
Politics are so predictable.
And therefore often boring.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:57 am
by Gob
Joe Guy wrote:I believe an unbiased viewer would give the "win" to Romney based only on style, not substance.
Substance? In political debate? For the presidency? I admire your optimism!

Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:44 am
by oldr_n_wsr
Without a teleprompter or remembered speech, Obama is out of his element. He is a great speaker, but off the cuff and ad-lib, he is not very good.
I am one of the undecideds and, although my vote means next to nothing here in NY which will go to Obama, I do enjoy a good debate and I thought last nights was one of the better I have seen.
People may claim that Romney's points on the questions lacked detail, both of them lacked detail. You have 2 minutes to state your case, how can you give "details" on something as complex as any of the subjects that were brought up in 2 minutes.

Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:08 pm
by Big RR
Personally I would call this debate a draw; neither candidate shined and, while Romney may have scored a few more points during the 90 minutes, he also tended to stray from topic and ramble. Obama seemed completely unable to generate any enthusiasm or to deliver a coherent message. It's sad to think that this is the best the two predominant parties could muster.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:55 pm
by oldr_n_wsr
Crackpot wrote:they both don't look good.
I was very young at the time, but I have heard comments/reports that way back when Nixon debated Kennedy, that those who heard the debate on radio considered Nixon the winner, meanwhile those who "saw" the debate on TV overwhelmingly said Jack was the winner.
Appearance, no matter how superficial, does matter. (at least to some).
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:19 pm
by Big RR
Interesting; I recall a story about Robert Kennedy when he ran for the senate in NY in the 60s (64?); he was running against an older republican incumbent (Keating) and he insisted on debating only on radio to avoid appearing like the young kid beating up on the elder statesman on TV. Not sure if it is true, but it makes sense.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:57 pm
by Crackpot
oldr_n_wsr wrote:People may claim that Romney's points on the questions lacked detail, both of them lacked detail. You have 2 minutes to state your case, how can you give "details" on something as complex as any of the subjects that were brought up in 2 minutes.

The issue with Romney is everything lacks detail. His platform is made up of talking points not much else. He talks about tax cuts and cutting the deficit but has no plan how to do it. He talks about over tuning all this legislation but says he'll keep the popular parts ignoring that in most cased the popular parts can only exist because of the unpopular parts.
The man might impress me if he once gave a straight answer on these issues.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:55 pm
by Long Run
I caught a fair bit of this on radio as I was driving around, and it sure seems like all the talking heads are right on this one -- Romney did a very good job stating his case, he spoke clearly, had plenty of real life examples and facts ready, and his points were direct. Obama had a lot of hemming and hawing, "uh-ing", wandering off topic, and didn't seem to want to make any points (jeez, for example -- on Social Security, why does he say there isn't much difference between him and Romney when the stronger point is that you can trust a D on SS, while the Rs want to try all kinds of wild ideas all the way up to privatizing it). In style and substance this was a wipeout as a debate.
As to the original point, this debate mattered. They often don't if the two debaters perform reasonably well. However, in this contest, Romney's gaffs have been the top stories in the last weeks, so to have him come out and be in on top of his game is reassuring to many voters who would like to choose someone other than Obama. Romney definitely seemed like he could be president last night. Plus, doing well fires up his base and makes it more likely there will be a stronger R turnout. Obama's bumbling will do the exact opposite with his base. I doubt the polls will reflect much of this change; the polls will be able to measure a swing in independents, but as long as the pollsters have their expected voter modeling in place, they will not show the change in turnout momentum.
Re: Do the debates matter?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:14 pm
by oldr_n_wsr
Crackpot wrote:oldr_n_wsr wrote:People may claim that Romney's points on the questions lacked detail, both of them lacked detail. You have 2 minutes to state your case, how can you give "details" on something as complex as any of the subjects that were brought up in 2 minutes.

The issue with Romney is everything lacks detail. His platform is made up of talking points not much else. He talks about tax cuts and cutting the deficit but has no plan how to do it. He talks about over tuning all this legislation but says he'll keep the popular parts ignoring that in most cased the popular parts can only exist because of the unpopular parts.
The man might impress me if he once gave a straight answer on these issues.
And what detail did Obama give? What straight answer did Obama give? Everytime I heard Obama give an answer, he started out with some inane story about him/his wife/his friend/someone he met.
And in two minutes one (either one) is supposed to give details??? I can't explain the workings of a uP in two minutes ( and I have been designing with them for 25 years)let alone a budget of trillions of dollars or a health care proposition for a country of hundreds of millions of people.
And Obama has been nothing but a talking point. "I killed osama but but kept GM alive." Meanwhile more and more are un/under employed. More and more are on foodstamps and disability. Without his teleprompter, he looked like a fish out of water. To me, he actually looked like he thought he was "above" the debate process that as a president felt he shouldn't have had to be "brought down" to that level.