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And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 8:16 am
by The Hen
..... tommorrow in my local election.
Predictions from Government people behind the scenes are for a closely run election with a possibility of a change in Government and an Indepedent holding the balance of power.
The bookmakers, have called it a foregone conclusion and paid out on a Labor win. I know that a week ago the Labor crunchers had called the election as well.
Hundreds of gamblers have made an early score on tomorrow's ACT election with an online bookmaker halting bets on the poll and paying out $20,000 to punters who backed Labor.
Online bookies Sportsbet.com.au closed its market on the poll this morning after odds on a victory by Chief Minister Katy Gallagher plunged to $1.04, the same as those available on Black Caviar in the mare's most recent races.
The agency's public relations manager Shaun Anderson told the Canberra Times today that about 300 punters would share in $20,000 of winnings after the decision was made to close the market this morning with 95 per cent of gamblers backing Ms Gallagher to retain power.
"We've decided to pay out already, that's how confident we are," Mr Anderson said
The Liberals' price had blown out from $2.30 on Monday to a $3.50 long shot yesterday.
"At the start of the week, they (Labor) were $1.50, then they moved to $1.04, so at this stage we've closed the market," Mr Anderson said.
"The main reason its been closed is because of the volume of bets for Labor, it just looks like a certainty."
"We might re-open it, but it's a sure thing at the moment."
Read more:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-new ... z29jTR8e7s
Am I too conservative? Is this a particularly stupid thing to do to your business?
How can number-crunchers do what they do to come up with such a definitive result against the gut feeling of every official I have talked too?
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:39 am
by oldr_n_wsr
How can number-crunchers do what they do to come up with such a definitive result against the gut feeling of every official I have talked too?
Because they are paid to come up with the numbers/results. To officials, there are no ramifications (aka money) if they are wrong.
How do the odds makers do it for football? The spread is almost always correct.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:10 pm
by rubato
How do you tell that the spread is 'correct'?
yrs,
rubato
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:58 pm
by Sue U
The Hen wrote:How can number-crunchers do what they do to come up with such a definitive result against the gut feeling of every official I have talked too?
See also:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate Silver, the internet's pretend girlfriend, has a remarkable record for accuracy and uses a rather complex model developed from what he learned from baseball (and that's not cricket.)
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:35 pm
by The Hen
Oops.
They were probably wrong, but it is going to take about a week to sort it all out.
TRIUMPHANT Liberal leader Zed Seselja says ACT voters have rejected a Labor-Greens alliance in Saturday's election.
But he's stopped short of claiming victory, with the opposition falling one seat short of majority government in the 17-seat legislative assembly.
It will take days of negotiation with the Greens before a new minority government can be formed in the territory.
The Liberals, on the back of their biggest-ever primary vote, are on track to take eight seats to Labor's seven giving them their highest representation in the 23-year history of self-government.
With more than 70 per cent of the vote counted at 10.50pm (AEST), Labor had 39.1 per cent of the overall vote (up 1.7pc on 2008), to the Liberals 38 per cent (up 6.4pc) and the Greens 11 per cent (down 4.6pc)
A surprise Labor casualty could be Attorney-General Simon Corbell who might lose his seat to fellow Labor candidate Meegan Fitzharris.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:39 pm
by Scooter
Will this have any impact on you personally Hen, or is your job protected from changing political winds?
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:41 pm
by Lord Jim
Looks like that speech of Gilard's had about zero impact on her party's political fortunes, at least in this race....
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:48 pm
by Scooter
I'm sure that, as in the U.S., races at the state/territory level often have a completely different dynamic from whatever happens at the national level.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:41 pm
by The Hen
I am fine Scoot, thanks for asking.
I am a Public Servant and I will support any elected Member that becomes Minister. My Director General is on contract though. A change in Government will see a change in many Directors General.
However the wheels of Government must keep turning regardless of whose turn it is to be Stig.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:55 pm
by Lord Jim
However the wheels of Government must keep turning regardless of whose turn it is to be Stig.
"Quite so!"
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:03 pm
by Gob
Lord Jim wrote:Looks like that speech of Gilard's had about zero impact on her party's political fortunes, at least in this race....
`In every state and territory, Labour has lots power in recent elections.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:08 pm
by Lord Jim
That jibes with the recent polling I was able to find....
Her advantage over Abbott in personal popularity over does not seem to translate into much in terms of political impact for her party.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:18 pm
by The Hen
Which is why when the bets were paid out early I was surprised.
Not one person I had spoken to, other than a Labor number-cruncher had expressed confidence in any result other than a minority government, the colour of which could be any mixture parties.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:40 am
by The Hen
Arse.
My Minister, the ACT Attorney-General, lost his seat.
Bummer for him and his staffers. He didn't deserve to go out this way.
They are still counting to work out which party is able to govern. Presently it is looking like 8 seats to Labor, 8 seats to Liberals, and a solitary Green to make the numbers up to 17. It should be a fiery next four years.
Re: And they're off and racing ....
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:19 am
by Gob
Ironic that the party which lost most percentage of votes, and was roundly rejected by the electorate, will have the power to influence government, and to choose who to crown.
