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Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:14 pm
by dgs49
(1) Obviously, these are not really debates. They should be opportunities for the candidates to articulate their views, positions, and aspirations for the future, side by side with their opponents, to inform the voters. It's basically a very good idea, and the fact that they are viewed so widely is a great thing.

(2) The Achilles heel of the whole process is lying by the candidates. It is practically unavoidable, and it is ubiquitous. The candidates know that it is a good strategy, and they also know that their opponent will not have time to effectively dispute any lie with verifiable facts. And the opponent will probably look petty and foolish in the attempt, even if the lie was gross (as with Obama's claims about the terrorist attack in Libya).

(3) Most people who claim to be "undecided" at this point are either (a) lying, or (b) stupid, or (c) seriously uninformed. And the less informed you are, the more vulnerable you are to the lies told by the candidates. Thus, polls of "undecided voters" are meaningless.

(4) The MSM has been shameless with its attempts to color peoples' perception of who "won" these debates. In each case on the late night news and the morning after, the media was flooded with "experts" being quoted as saying that Obama "won" the previous night's debate. In the face of that flood of propaganda, it is amazing that Romney was ultimately conceded to have won debate #1.

(5) Rasmussen has been the only pollster (I've seen) who has been honest. They publish polling results a few days after, and those are the only ones with any validity.

(6) Despite the "common knowledge" that these debates don't affect votes, the first debate this year led to a significant jump in Romney's prospects. The others (including the VP debate), not so much. In fact, if Romney had NOT won debate #1, he would be history by now.

(7) The only significant result of the VP debate was the large number of women who apparently woke up to the fact that Biden is a lying asshole.

(8) Although my perceptions are certainly partisan, it has been amazing to me how Obama has been able to get away in presenting himself as an aspiring candidate, and not an incumbent. For someone who has been in office for almost four full years to get away with talking about what he intends to do in the future to solve the economic crisis is simply bizarre.

Maybe sometime in the future we can have a format that allows the candidates to speak for a while, allows some time for independent fact-checking, and allows cogent follow-up questions by people who are knowledgeable on the subject.

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:58 pm
by Long Run
dgs49 wrote: (3) Most people who claim to be "undecided" at this point are either (a) lying, or (b) stupid, or (c) seriously uninformed. And the less informed you are, the more vulnerable you are to the lies told by the candidates. Thus, polls of "undecided voters" are meaningless.
I doubt this is true. Rather, my view of the undecided voters at this point is that they are non-idealogical and have a view that: 1) Obama is fairly likeable, had a very tough situation to deal with, and didn't do a particularly good job at it, but there is plenty of blame on Congress as well; and 2) Romney is a so-so candidate and it is not clear he will do a better job than Obama. Many undecideds have moved into the Romney vote because his debate performances showed he is up to the job. However, for the remaining, they are having a hard time figuring out which way to go, because picking the least bad choice is always a difficult analysis.

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:31 pm
by Gob
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:51 pm
by Guinevere
It isn't just Romney, either. Not one of his supporters has an answer for the following questions: 1- how will do better at creating jobs for the US than he did in Massachusetts and 2- how will he reduce the deficit, rather than increase it (as he did in Massachusetts). Specifics, please.

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:01 am
by Gob

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:24 pm
by Big RR
Long Run wrote:
dgs49 wrote: (3) Most people who claim to be "undecided" at this point are either (a) lying, or (b) stupid, or (c) seriously uninformed. And the less informed you are, the more vulnerable you are to the lies told by the candidates. Thus, polls of "undecided voters" are meaningless.
I doubt this is true. Rather, my view of the undecided voters at this point is that they are non-idealogical and have a view that: 1) Obama is fairly likeable, had a very tough situation to deal with, and didn't do a particularly good job at it, but there is plenty of blame on Congress as well; and 2) Romney is a so-so candidate and it is not clear he will do a better job than Obama. Many undecideds have moved into the Romney vote because his debate performances showed he is up to the job. However, for the remaining, they are having a hard time figuring out which way to go, because picking the least bad choice is always a difficult analysis.
I tend to agree with the above; also, contained within the group of "undecideds" are people who are leaning toward "none of the above", at least as it applies to Obama and Romney, and are just looking to see if one of them winning would be so bad that they might have to gulp hard and vote for the other. My guess is that many of these would lean toward Obama (as he is the incumbent with a record that aleinated them in the first place), which is one of the reasons (although clearly not the only one) the Obama camaign is working so hard to demonize Romney.

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:29 pm
by dgs49
In general response to the remarks above, the painful fact for Obama's supporters is that he has given them no rational reason to vote for him again. Unemployment is measurably worse than it was when he was elected, the deficit has exploded, he has done nothing different militarily (including w/r/t Gitmo) than John McCain or Bush43 would have done over the past four years, etc. His signature accomplishment, Obamacare, is a wash: It's presumed benefits will come at an extremely high cost, and the only question is whether the benefits (uninsured, eliminating lifetime caps, etc) will be a greater benefit than the mountainous costs. Again, he has given his supporters no reason to vote for him a second time, and his only hope is that he can paint R&R as worse than he would be in years 5-8 of his Administration.

As for jobs, Barry has made it clear (though he denies it constantly) that his only strategy for creating jobs is by promoting the hiring of government workers and supporting government spending initiatives (e.g., infrastructure) or government subsidies to dubious "clean energy" private sector initiatives. That' s it. He has no plan and apparently no interest in promoting job creation in the "real" private sector.

Romney's vision, if fully implemented, may involve deficits that are as bad as Obama's, however, the deficits won't be the result of gargantuan government spending, they will be the result of taking less out of the private economy in taxes, thus encouraging private spending, which will, as a side effect, promote job creation. Unfortunately, unlike a plan to hire a million teachers, policemen, regulators, inspectors, and fire fighters, you can't accurately predict how many jobs will be created, and in fact, American business has shown recently that even if it has money to spend, it might not hire millions of people - it might just hold on to the money. Romney hopes that with a business-friendly administration, American Business will have more confidence in the future and start hiring. No guarantees.

Neither of them has anything resembling a plan that will substantially reduce the deficit in the foreseeable future. Barry's whining about Romney's plan not reducing the deficit rings hollow to anyone who has been paying attention, as HIS plans guarantee that the deficit will remain at unsustainable levels. In fact, he has not presented anything resembling a "solution" to SS, Medicare, and Medicaid.

As pointed out by Goerge Will in a column a few days ago, there is a consensus among the American people that we want Big Government, and we DON'T want to pay for it. That's not a very good concensus for a politician to work with, is it?

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:55 pm
by Grim Reaper
I'm starting to think that dgs49 is posting from some alternate reality where what he says is actually true. Because there's no other explanation that could account for his constant stream of lies and misinformation.

For starters, Mr. Romney has promised to add trillions of spending for the Department of Defense. Money that the DoD doesn't even want right now. But apparently that's not "gargantuan government spending" because... well just because it's a Republican doing the spending.

Re: Random Thoughts on the Debates

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:30 am
by MajGenl.Meade
WHERE LEGALS DARE

To General W. S. Hancock
St Paul, Minnesota

PHILADELPHIA, November 6 1871
On the question of presidential ambitions, the issue is surrounded by so many difficulties, and blended so intimately with questions, not only of politics, but of party, that I have esteemed myself fortunate in being hitherto permitted to remain where I am.

Besides, certain ill-disposed persons have put it about that the Court would rule that my birth in Cadiz, Spain renders me not “native born” and hence disqualifies me, constitutionally, from seeking the highest office, as would be true had I been born on the isthmus of Panama, or in tribal lands in east Africa. Vice-presidency of the Fairmount Park Commission is sufficient preferment for myself.

As to your own position, I fear that your narrow defeat in 1868 which resulted in Seymour’s selection as democrat candidate against Grant, the galvanized republican, has shown that our people are not yet reconciled to one who believes in the principles of states' rights and limited government. Then, your public characterization of Sheridan’s interference in your Department last year as resulting in the “Baker massacre” has cemented his enmity. He is more concerned with rushing about Chicago saving his home and his friends from fire, than he is about the death of hundreds at the hands of an alcoholic. How true it is that the acorn falls not far from the tree.

Your mention of Canada in connection with the arrest of O’Neil in St Paul, and my own musings on Supreme Court involvement in presidential matters, bring to mind Vallandigham in 1863, whom I feel sure you recall. The justices were between the Scylla of the Constitution and the Charybdis of Mr. Lincoln. Chief Justice Chase sidestepped the question by making the un-surprising discovery that extra-legal tribunals were not listed amongst those over which the Supreme Court had any authority.

Democrats claimed this will permit a future administration to incarcerate citizens as well as non-citizens without protection of our Constitution. I cannot credit that any such emergency as the recent sectional conflict could arise that would require such draconian measures.

By the by, had you learned of the death of Vallandigham this past June? He was busily engaged in defending one accused of murder, and had formed the theory that the victim discharged his own gun by accident. He invited other attorneys to his hotel room, and illustrated his notion by seizing a convenient pistol, and entangling it in his clothing. The unfortunately loaded weapon performed admirably and Vallandigham shot himself to death. The client was acquitted. Grant has been heard to say that more lawyers should be encouraged to go thus far for justice.
Excerpted from "The (Secret) Life and Letters of General George Gordon Meade"

http://www.clevelandcivilwarroundtable. ... /meade.htm