I say this with no great joy...
I think I've made pretty clear where I stand on the race politically; but when I've got my Political Analyst Hat on, (as opposed to my Party Hat
) I try to call balls and strikes as I see 'em...What has convinced me, in boring down into all the "battleground" state poll numbers that the odds are now at least 70-30 (as opposed to the 60-40 number I've stuck with for over a year ) that Obama will be re-elected, boil down to several key factors:
1. Romney is not going to win Ohio.
Despite all the time and treasure the Romney campaign and it's allies have expended in Ohio, he cannot seem to get the rebound amongst white working class voters that he's gotten in virtually every other region of the country that he has enjoyed since the first Debate...(even in states like California, where he has no prayer of winning, but where Obama's lead has been cut from the mid 20's to 14% in the latest Pew Poll)
There's only one logical reason for this; his position on the auto bailout...(he's had the same problem in Michigan, but Michigan is not mission critical for his path to 270)
2. After a while, "margin of error" starts to look like a ceiling....
It's true that Romney is within 3 points, (margin of error) in a number of RCP poll averages in a number of key battle ground states...
But the problem is, he has been on the losing end of those 2-3 point margins consistently for a number of months....(Where this has not been the case...like Florida, North Carolina, and probably Virginia, I expect Romney will win...but there are too many other "toss up" states...especially Ohio...where his final poll numbers will represent a ceiling he cannot over come)
3. Where is the candidate?
At this point in the election, (and for the past few days) you can tell alot about what a campaign really expects based on where they choose to put their most precious commodity...which at this point in the race is their candidate's time...(these are the decisions that a campaign makes based on it's last, best, internal polling)
Mitt Romney hasn't been running around Pennsylvania for the past few days because he figures he's got Ohio in the bag and he's trying to run up the score....(His final campaign appearance will be tomorrow in Pittsburgh)
He's doing it because his team realizes he's got systemic problems with white working class voters in Ohio, and they're trying to cobble together another path to 270 without Ohio....
(The problem with this strategy is that Romney has almost no ground game in Pennsylvania; certainly nothing that matches the Democratic machine in Philly and the surrounding suburbs)
4. The ground game.
In battle ground state after battle ground state, regardless of what the national or even state polls say, Team Obama has the Romney forces out manned and out gunned on the ground...
Choose your criteria....
Early voting, precinct organization, volunteers, local offices...
Romney's got a better ground organization than McCain did, but nothing like what Rove and Co. put together for GWB in '04....
But doing better than John McCain, doesn't win you the Presidency....
Conclusion:
Romney will do considerably better than John McCain did in "08...
Hell, he might even run up big enough numbers in some states to win the national popular vote...
But at the end of the day, Barack Obama will be re-elected with somewhere between 278 and 320 electoral votes....
)
