Plan B Forum

GAZA/JERUSALEM (Reuters) - International pressure for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip puts Egypt's new Islamist president in the spotlight on Tuesday after a sixth day of Palestinian rocket fire and Israeli air strikes that have killed over 100 people.

Israel's leaders weighed the benefits and risks of sending tanks and infantry into the densely populated coastal enclave two months before an Israeli election, and indicated they would prefer a diplomatic path backed by world powers, including U.S. President Barack Obama, the European Union and Russia.

Any such solution may pass through Egypt, Gaza's other neighbor and the biggest Arab nation, where the ousting of U.S. ally Hosni Mubarak and election of President Mohamed Mursi is part of a dramatic reshaping of the Middle East, wrought by the Arab Spring and now affecting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Mursi, whose Muslim Brotherhood was mentor to the founders of Hamas, took a call from Obama on Monday telling him the group must stop rocket fire into Israel - effectively endorsing Israel's stated aim in launching the offensive last week. Obama, as quoted by the White House, also said he regretted civilian deaths - which have been predominantly among the Palestinians.

"The two leaders discussed ways to de-escalate the situation in Gaza, and President Obama underscored the necessity of Hamas ending rocket fire into Israel," the White House said.

"President Obama then called Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and received an update on the situation in Gaza and Israel. In both calls, President Obama expressed regret for the loss of Israeli and Palestinian civilian lives."

Three Israeli civilians and 108 Palestinians have been killed. Gaza officials say over half of those killed in the enclave were civilians, 27 of them children.

http://news.yahoo.com/gaza-truce-pressu ... 48745.html

I would certainly say that Israel would be fully justified in launching a ground attack on Gaza if the government reaches the conclusion that this would be the only way to bring the rocket attacks against it's civilian population centers to an end.

While the casualties Israel has sustained to date have been relatively light, the disruption to the lives of it's population with daily repeated air raids shutting down economic life, disrupting schools, etc. (40% of Israel's population resides in Tel Aviv alone, and Jerusalem has also come under fire from Hamas' improved missiles.) is completely intolerable; no sovereign nation would permit this. The entire nation is essentially being terrorized. If Canada were lobbing missiles at Boston, we wouldn't put it up with it just because not that many people had yet been killed.

That having been said, I think the Israelis really need to think long and hard about a full scale incursion into Gaza; it would come at a very steep price.

The densely populated Gaza strip has long been one of the most forlorn hell holes on earth. It has almost no economy or infrastructure to speak of; it is essentially an over grown open air refugee camp. It's hapless residents have been victimized both by the indignities of occupation, (which ended eight years ago) and by first ineffective, and now gangster leadership ....

Since the Hamas thugs overthrew the Palestinian Authority they have done nothing but compound the misery of a people who are more their captives than their citizenry....They don't give one small damn for the well being of their people, in fact the more innocent civilians who are killed in this conflict, the better from their point of view. They are far more interested in scoring propaganda points then they are in the well being of the people of Gaza; they have proven this consistently ever since they seized power, and they are driving the point home in spades in this latest round of attacks.

And therein lies the problem for Israel. An incursion into the Gaza strip under the best of circumstances, conducted in the most professional way, would inevitably result in significant civilian casualties, just owing to the nature of the place, and these would not be "the best of circumstances". You can bet your boots that the Hamas terrorists would do everything humanly possible to maximize civilian casualties. These are people would think nothing of placing rocket batteries in orphanages.

So because the cost of this would be extremely high for Israel in terms of the effect that the images of burning children will inevitably have on much of world opinion, in my view, they really need to conclude that all other reasonable options for bringing an end to these terror missile attacks have been exhausted before they march in to this hornet's nest.

Of course if that threshold is met, then they have no choice but to act, regardless of world opinion, (much of which is automatically inclined to reflexively take an anti-Israeli position anyway, always and everywhere, regardless of the facts.)

I spoke to my best and oldest mate, Jamesy, yesterday. Him and his missus have two weeks holiday in Egypt booked, starting next Sunday.

Jim: Situation changing rapidly and you're more than half a day behind.

http://www.haaretz.com/

http://www.ynetnews.com/

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/gazacrisis/

Uh, actually no, I'm not "behind" at all....

I had CNN on doing an in depth live story about the situation while I was typing the OP after that I watched an interview with Israeli President Shimon Peres, and at the time I posted it, the article I quoted was only one hour old. My information could not possibly be more current.

It appears your information may be a bit out of date. The latest assessments I've seen (including Peres' views on the subject) are that the truce proposals at this point have only a slim chance of success.

Happy to bring you up to date.

Jim and Sue, get a duet going!!


You don't know what's going on
You've been away for far too long
You can't come back and think you are still mine
You're out of touch Jim my baby
My poor discarded baby
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time

Well, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
Sue's all left out
Out of there without a doubt
'Cause baby, baby, baby, you're out of time

The girl that wants to run away
Discovers that she’s out of day
It’s no good you’re thinking that you are still mine
You’re out of touch, my baby
My poor unfaithful baby
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time

Well, Jim, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, baby you're out of time
Yes, you are all left out
Out of there without a doubt
'Cause baby, baby, baby, you're out of time

You thought you were a clever Jim,
Giving up your social whirl
But you can't come back and be the first in line, oh no
You're obsolete my baby
My poor old-fashioned baby
I said baby, baby, baby you're out of time

Well, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
Yes, you are left out
Out of there without a doubt
'Cause baby, baby, baby, you're out of time

Sing the song....

Hahaha, Peres is as much behind as you, Jim. (P.S., he doesn't make any decisions, and is informed after the fact.) And you are looking at it through an American lens. Netanyahu doesn't give a shit about world opinion of Israel; the decision to invade Gaza will be based on whether he thinks it will play well in the January elections.

"Bring it on, baby!"



Past the point of no return, no going back now
Our passion play has now at last begun
Past all thought of right or wrong, one final question
How long should we two wait before we're one?

When will the blood begin to race
The sleeping bud burst into bloom?
When will the flames at last consume us?

Past the point of no return, the final threshold
The bridge is crossed, so stand and watch it burn
We've passed the point of no return



edit: Durn! Forgot the second image

Here's food for thought, from some know-nothing idiot* at Foreign Policy :

How Hamas Won the War

It doesn’t really matter if Israel wins the battle.

BY AARON DAVID MILLER |NOVEMBER 19, 2012

Cruel Middle East ironies abound. And here's a doozy for you.

Why is it that Hamas -- purveyor of terror, launcher of Iranian-supplied rockets, and source of "death to the Jews" tropes -- is getting more attention, traction, legitimacy and support than the "good" Palestinian, the reasonable and grandfatherly Mahmoud Abbas, who has foresworn violence in favor of negotiations? Since the crisis began, President Obama seems to have talked to every other Middle Eastern leader except Abbas.

The Israeli operation against Hamas may yet take a large bite out of the Palestinian Islamist organization in Gaza, but the "Hamas trumps Abbas" dynamic has been underway for some time now and is likely to continue. I'd offer four reasons why.

Continue at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... on_the_war

__________________
* Aaron David Miller (born March 25, 1949) is an American Middle East analyst, author, and negotiator. He is on the U.S. Advisory Council of Israel Policy Forum, is Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and has been an advisor to six Secretaries of State. Miller worked within the United States Department of State for twenty four years (1978–2003). Between 1988 and 2003, Miller served six secretaries of state as an advisor on Arab-Israeli negotiations, where he participated in American efforts to broker agreements between Israel, Jordan, Syria, and the Palestinians. He left the Department of State in January 2003 to serve as president of Seeds of Peace, an international youth organization, founded in 1993. In January 2006, he became a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. Miller published his fourth book, The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace, in 2008.

Aaaaaand......

the latest news from Yedioth Ahronoth ("The Latest News"):

German FM en route to Cairo; Morsi: Conflict to end Tuesday
Ceasefire negotiations go into high gear as Westerwelle called to Egypt. Egyptian president says 'Israeli aggression' against Gaza to end later on Tuesday

Itamar Eichner Published: 11.20.12, 16:04 / Israel News

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has left Israel en route to Cairo where he will hold meetings with the Egyptian mediators following meetings he held with Israeli officials.

It is estimated that Israel asked Westerwelle to intervene in order to introduce amendments to the ceasefire agreement draft.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi said on Tuesday that "Israeli aggression" against Gaza would end later in the day, the Egyptian state news agency MENA reported.

"President Mohamed Morsi announced that the farce of Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip will end on Tuesday," MENA said, quoting public remarks made by the country's head of state after the funeral of his sister.

"The efforts to conclude a truce between the Palestinian and Israeli sides will produce positive results in the next few hours," he was quoted as saying. Egypt has been trying to mediate a truce to end the conflict.

NPR reported this morning (in the 830-9AM time frame) that a truce could happen in the next few hours.

the latest news from Yedioth Ahronoth ("The Latest News"):

Yeah, I heard on the news about an hour ago today that a spokesman for the Israeli government was saying (unofficially ) that it was possible a truce could go into effect tonight (their time)

Sue, I had seen the announcement from Morsi that you posted, (since I've been keeping up very closely with this, as you know.) but thought I would wait to see if the there was a denial from the Israelis before saying anything about it. (frequently in these things one side will interpret the progress that has been made quite differently from the other.)

Israel maintains a continuous state of war against Gaza by economic means which leave the Gazans no option other than to strike back with violence. When they do, it is then a justification for Israel to hit back. Like nearly everyone, when I see Hamas send rockets into Israel I think its perfectly reasonable for Israel to strike back. But unlike a lot of people I also see the murderous policies of Israel in destroying the economy by arbitrarily closing trade with the outside world so that a Gaza t-shirt factory can never compete because they cannot guarantee when they will get raw materials or be able to deliver goods. Gaza can only be a self-sustaining community if they have trade with the outside world so they can buy goods from other countries.

If Israel really wanted peace they would stop making it impossible for the Gaza strip residents to develop an economy and thus have a way of improving their conditions of life. Since Israel makes it impossible for them to have a better future for them and their children to work towards and devote their energy to, they fight.


Israel holds the whip hand here and their actions make peaceful coexistence impossible so that war is the only option. Both have blood on their hands (Israel has killed about 10 times as many) but only Israel is in a position to change the arc of history. I think we should make all future aid contingent on them starting to make peace; or leave them to their fate.


" ...
: Mankind has become so
much one family that we cannot insure our own prosperity- except by insuring that of
everyone else. If you wish to be happy yourself, you must resign yourself to seeing others
also happy.
..." Bertrand Russell



yrs,
rubato

This just in:

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told US network CNN that a ceasefire deal with Gaza militants had not been finalised and that the "ball is still in play".

Earlier Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "If a long-term solution can be put in place by diplomatic means, Israel will be a willing partner."

CNN is further reporting that the Israelis are insisting on 24 hours without rocket attacks before they will sign on to a ceasefire....

This is definitely not a done deal, despite Morsi and Hamas claiming that it is...

rubato wrote:Israel maintains a continuous state of war against Gaza by economic means which leave the Gazans no option other than to strike back with violence. When they do, it is then a justification for Israel to hit back. Like nearly everyone, when I see Hamas send rockets into Israel I think its perfectly reasonable for Israel to strike back. But unlike a lot of people I also see the murderous policies of Israel in destroying the economy by arbitrarily closing trade with the outside world

So when Cuba or Iran chooses to strike back at the U.S. with violence for its economic blockades and sanctions murderously destroying their economies by arbitrarily closing trade with the outside world, that will be pefectly all right with you?

The (current) Gaza economic sanctions and blockade -- imposed by BOTH Israel and Egypt as well as the "Quartet" nations -- is the result of political and practical security problems resulting from the Hamas take-over of Gaza, the Palestinians' continued factional in-fighting, the impotence of the PA leadership and the dyfunction of the Hamas leadership. As noted in the Foreign Policy article I linked above, Hamas refuses to make peace and the PA is unable to make peace with Israel. The situation is tremendously more complex, nuanced and fraught with peril than the simplistic assertions that Israel is oppressing Gaza and is in complete control of whether "war is the only option."

Lord Jim wrote:This just in:

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told US network CNN that a ceasefire deal with Gaza militants had not been finalised and that the "ball is still in play".

Earlier Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "If a long-term solution can be put in place by diplomatic means, Israel will be a willing partner."

CNN is further reporting that the Israelis are insisting on 24 hours without rocket attacks before they will sign on to a ceasefire....

This is definitely not a done deal, despite Morsi and Hamas claiming that it is...

Uh, yeah, Hamas is now saying it willl start its cease-fire at midnght, so if it can enforce that and Israel doesn't escalate, then a formal truce will go into effect.

The situation is tremendously more complex, nuanced and fraught with peril than the simplistic assertions that Israel is oppressing Gaza and is in complete control of whether "war is the only option."

Well, there's something we can both certainly agree on....

One of the many, many, things complicating this is that Hamas itself is faction ridden, and lacks internal organizational discipline; which makes agreements reached with supposed leadership actually being enforced, problematic.

Given this fact, it seems perfectly reasonable to me for the Israelis to insists on a period where the rocket attacks cease, prior to agreeing to a ceasefire. Presumably, if they can manage to go 24 hours without launching rocket attacks, they will have resolved these internal problems sufficiently to be able to actually observe a truce; at least for a while.

Not made any easier by Israel's assassination last week of Ahmed Jabari, Hamas's top military commander.

Sue U wrote: "...
So when Cuba or Iran chooses to strike back at the U.S. with violence for its economic blockades and sanctions murderously destroying their economies by arbitrarily closing trade with the outside world, that will be pefectly all right with you?

The (current) Gaza economic sanctions and blockade -- imposed by BOTH Israel and Egypt as well as the "Quartet" nations -- is the result of political and practical security problems resulting from the Hamas take-over of Gaza, the Palestinians' continued factional in-fighting, the impotence of the PA leadership and the dyfunction of the Hamas leadership. As noted in the Foreign Policy article I linked above, Hamas refuses to make peace and the PA is unable to make peace with Israel. The situation is tremendously more complex, nuanced and fraught with peril than the simplistic assertions that Israel is oppressing Gaza and is in complete control of whether "war is the only option."

We have no blockade of Cuba at all. Cuba trades freely with the rest of the world, just not us. But I agree that our restrictions on direct trade with Cuba are not defensible.

And we do not have a blockade against trade with Iran. Iran can, and does, sell oil to whomever will buy it.

But the latter example is somewhat apt. we recognize that by getting our allies to agree not buy Iranian oil we are using directly coercive methods which can inflict suffering. But applying short-term economic pressure is very different than applying these methods for generations and indefinitely into the future. If we had been doing the same thing to Iran for generations as Israel has to the Palestinians then they would be justified in calling it an act of war too; anyone would.

Israeli control over Gaza trade predates the Hamas takeover, you are making an excuse. Both of us know why Egypt signed on. Israel's treatment of the West Bank is not very different; they have deliberately tried to destroy their economy with the settlements and fences and then blame the Palestinians for the misery which Israel creates.

The complex part of the problem is that Israel cannot form a government without bringing in minority parties to form a coalition. Many minority parties are 'hard liners' and want to maintain the status quo; continuous warfare against a weak enemy. No one can become PM without appeasing them. We can best help Israel by providing an external contingency which an Israeli leader can then use to counter their arguments. Or by telling them that if they wish to fight to the death rather than do what they obviously must to make peace, remove the settlements and allow unrestricted trade; we will let them do so on their own. There is a large constituency in Israel who genuinely want peace and would welcome this approach.

I had hoped that the removal of the settlements in Gaza was a first step in the right direction. So far it has not been.

Looking ahead I do not know if Israel will always have such a huge advantage over the Palestinian people militarily, economically, and in powerful allies. As someone who wants them both to enjoy a peaceful and prosperous future I hope they use their current relative advantages to unwind rather than continue the violence. Responding to every murder of an Israeli by killing 20 Palestinians* is emotionally satisfying but a poor route to the future.



yrs,
rubato

The most recent ratio is 3 Israelis and 128 Palestinians.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/2 ... 65872.html

(Our first -- and only -- Nuclear Winter brought to you by the letters "I" and "P".)

The eastern world, it is exploding
Violence flarin', bullets loadin'
You're old enough to kill, but not for votin'
You don't believe in war, but what's that gun you're totin'
And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin'

But you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don't believe
We're on the eve
of destruction.

Don't you understand what I'm tryin' to say
Can't you feel the fears I'm feelin' today?
If the button is pushed, there's no runnin' away
There'll be no one to save, with the world in a grave
[Take a look around ya boy, it's bound to scare ya boy]

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don't believe
We're on the eve
of destruction.

Yeah, my blood's so mad feels like coagulatin'
I'm sitting here just contemplatin'
I can't twist the truth, it knows no regulation.
Handful of senators don't pass legislation
And marches alone can't bring integration
When human respect is disintegratin'
This whole crazy world is just too frustratin'

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don't believe
We're on the eve
of destruction.

Think of all the hate there is in Red China
Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama
You may leave here for 4 days in space
But when you return, it's the same old place
The poundin' of the drums, the pride and disgrace
You can bury your dead, but don't leave a trace
Hate your next-door neighbor, but don't forget to say grace
And, tell me over and over and over and over again, my friend
You don't believe
We're on the eve
Of destruction
Mm, no no, you don't believe
We're on the eve
of destruction.