June 25, 2013

[Guinevere]

Appears to be the date for the third Senate election in Massachusetts in four years. Primary on April 30, 2013.

We're all exhausted from all of the campaigning, but early speculation is Brown v. a sitting U.S. Congressman. Whoever wins will have to run again in 2014, so they better get ready for some significant fundraising and 18 months of on and off campaigning.

I'm not a John Kerry fan, I think he's a crap U.S. Senator when it comes to actually dealing with his constituents, but I'm not happy he's leaving.

[Sue U]

How do you like Ed Markey?

ETA:

Who else is in the running?

[Guinevere]

I don't know much about Markey, but he is the first one to toss his hat into the ring and had lots of early support from the Dems. Steve Lynch (my current ( and new bc of redistricting) congressman) may be next. The Globe reported same on Friday but Lynch remains silent.

It's quite possible Barney Frank may get the temp appointment, which would be hysterical. I'd love to see him loose in the Senate, even for only 150 days.

[Sue U]

What about Deval Patrick? I thought he was a great speaker at the convention.

[Guinevere]

I don't think he is giving up the Governor's office to run for Senate. Eventually, but not quite yet. He seems committed to working on some of the significant problems facing the commonwealth. But never say never, he is a politician after all.

[Lord Jim]

Looks like Scott's got a good shot:

Poll: Scott Brown leads big over potential Dem challengers
By Jonathan Easley - 01/25/13 03:13 PM ET

Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) has a big lead over Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) in the special Senate election to fill Sen. John Kerry's seat (D-Mass.), according to a MassInc Polling Group survey released Friday.

Brown takes 53 percent support in the poll, over Markey at 31 percent. A match-up of Brown against a generic Democratic ballot is considerably closer, but Brown still leads, 44 to 36 percent.

A strong majority of Democrats, 71 percent, would like to see a primary battle to determine their candidate, and they might get just that. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) is planning a challenge for the Democratic nomination, the Boston Globe reported Friday.

His decision comes even as Markey has racked up numerous big-name endorsements from prominent Massachusetts and national Democrats, notably Kerry himself and the National Democratic Senatorial Committee.


Brown has a strong favorability rating with Massachusetts voters, at 55 percent positive, but his numbers in head-to-head match-ups against the Democrats are possibly inflated because voters are unfamiliar with the Democratic candidates.

Fifty-nine percent said they had no opinion on Markey, and 66 percent said they had no opinion on Lynch.

The MassInc Group poll of 435 registered voters was conducted between Jan. 16 and Jan. 19.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pol ... z2JJcmTaiK

[Guinevere]

I'm sure he had a similar, if not greater advantage against Senator Warren. Don't worry, it can and will be overcome. I know I and many other Dems will be working hard (despite the fatigue) to make sure Scott Brown is nothing more than a flattened speed bump.

[oldr_n_wsr]

flattened speed bump.

I'm gonna use that one day.

[Lord Jim]

I'm sure he had a similar, if not greater advantage against Senator Warren.

Yes, but in the race against Comrade Warren, you had the advantage of having a national election with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney at the top of the tickets....

You won't have that this time, (or in 2014 either) and Brown is starting out with a huge advantage in terms of organization, name ID and state-wide popularity over the possible Democratic challengers. This kind of election is won or lost mainly on organization.

Personally, I'm also hoping for a particularly nasty Demo primary fight....

[Guinevere]

I'm quite sure the Dems aren't going to fall into that particular pit. The chatter is about avoiding precisely that.

Yes, I know there is no national election, but I don't think it will matter this time -- lessons have been learned. As for organization, are you suggesting that Democrats in Massachusetts aren't or can't be organized? Martha lost because of herself, not because of the campaign's organization.

[Sue U]

Maybe we can lend you Cory Booker. He's angling for Frank Lautenberg's Senate seat right now (lamentably forgoing a gubernatorial campaign against His Corpulence). And despite Lautnerberg's age being measured in geologic time, he's been a good Senator.

[rubato]

Scott Brown?

They kicked him out after seeing him up close and in person. What has he done since then which might change their minds? Nothing.

yrs,
rubato

[Andrew D]

... Comrade Warren ....

That sort of silly dismissiveness is part of why the Republican party is becoming the party of white men while the Democratic party is becoming the party of everyone else.

[Lord Jim]

That sort of silly dismissiveness

LOL

That's truly amusing coming from one of the biggest practitioners of "silly dismissiveness" around here...

They kicked him out after seeing him up close and in person.

Yeah rube, that simplistic explanation must explain why he lost; that's why his favorability rating in the state is only 25%...

Oh wait...

[Andrew D]

That sort of silly dismissiveness

LOL

That's truly amusing coming from one of the biggest practitioners of "silly dismissiveness" around here...

Do you have something particular in mind? Or are you confusing me with your chosen bete noire?

[rubato]

Generally, once the electorate has made up their minds there has to be a visible reason for them to change it.

Brown was beaten badly by Warren, even as the incumbent. He has the further disadvantage of being a Republican who has the stink of their failed policies and deciet all over him running in a state with a higher level of education than Mississippi or Louisiana.

His only chance is an unusually weak opponent.

Sometimes it is simple.

yrs,
rubato

[Guinevere]

Brown has no shot now!

http://www.boston.com/politicalintellig ... readerComm

Scott Brown, who surprised the political world with his upset victory in the 2010 special election, announced Friday afternoon that he will not enter the special election to replace John F. Kerry.

“I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time,” Brown said in a statement. “And I know it’s not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me.”

Brown’s announcement was unusual. Rather than a formal press conference or statement, he initially released the news to the Boston Herald in a text message that said “U are the first to know.” His spokesman later confirmed the news to the Globe in a text that read “Not running.”

The full statement was released later.

(I think rather than run and lose again, he's going to keep his powder dry and run for Governor in 2014)

[Guinevere]

... Comrade Warren ....

That would be Senator Warren to you, buster.

[Sue U]

Brown has no shot now! [etc.]

Wow.

[Guinevere]

It is probably the smartest political move he could make. Although, he just completely pissed off the Republicans in Massachusetts. They just went through a bruising bitter fight for party chair. Brian's pick was selected yesterday, on the premise that he needed her to help with his run.