Plan B Forum

It's probably no coincidence that newly-minted Chinese leader Xi Jinping chose Moscow, where he arrived Friday for a three-day visit, to be his first foreign destination.

Over the coming weekend Mr. Xi will huddle in the Kremlin with President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, and other Russian officials to discuss the usual list of items on the two countries' burgeoning bilateral trade agenda: Russian gas, oil, arms, and engineering goods in exchange for Chinese consumer products. Official sources say they expect about 30 agreements to be signed, mainly in the field of energy.

But underlying that is a growing sense that the two countries are being driven together by shifting geopolitical winds, which are alienating each from the West while intensifying the need for more reliable partnerships. As Xi arrived in Moscow Friday, Mr. Putin stressed that ties between Russia and China have never been stronger, and they are set to grow warmer still.

"Our relations are characterized by a high degree of mutual trust, respect for each other's interests, support in vital issues. They are a true partnership and are genuinely comprehensive," Putin told the official ITAR-Tass agency.

"The fact that the new Chinese leader makes his first foreign trip to our country confirms the special nature of strategic partnership between Russia and China," he added.

In China's case, all the recent talk in the US of a "pivot to Asia" has Beijing worried that it may be in danger of being isolated by US pressure. China's standoff with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, with the attendant danger of drawing in Japan's main ally, the US, could be focusing Chinese minds on the desirability of strengthening relations with Russia.

Indeed, some Russian experts suggest that Xi will likely find a delicate moment to remind Putin that Moscow, too, sometimes gets exasperated with "Japanese bellicosity" in the matter of Russia's longstanding territorial dispute with Japan over the far eastern Kuril Islands which were seized by Soviet forces in the waning days of World War II.

"The US is shifting its priorities from Europe to Asia. That suggests some sort of competition in this arena is inevitable," says Alexander Konovalov, president of the independent Institute of Strategic Assessments in Moscow.

"Everyone is trying to find the strongest partners for this new situation, and Russia is one of the most desirable partners to have [for China]…. And this fits with the needs of Putin, who needs some dramatic successes in foreign policy at this point. He may well seek to forge a stronger partnership with China," he adds.