Coronavirus

[Scooter]

This was a very healthy, lean 41 year old Broadway actor with no underlying health issues, and the virus destroyed his body.

This is one of the more infuriating parts of the narrative being peddled by the Trump death cult, that so long as someone infected can avoid death (whose probability they continually underplay), they will go on to a full recovery. Almost anyone who gets sick enough to need ICU care, and a substantial proportion of anyone else who gets seriously ill, is going to come away with irreparable damage that will cause lifelong impairments. This is a piece of the pandemic that does not get anywhere near enough coverage; every story about someone coming back from the edge of death is treated as a great victory, and short shrift is paid to the ongoing disabilities they will face.

[ex-khobar Andy]

ExKA drs and nurses take a lot more precautions and use far more PPE than your usual person on the street. Not to mention they are trained in proper sanitary measures.

Er, yes. I think I knew that already. And yet still they catch CoV. I assume that in the early days of the virus a lot of it was due to inadequate PPE and re-use/washing of masks etc. Nothing is 100% and everything we are doing - distancing, appropriate PPE, hand washing, etc. - is designed to reduce, not eliminate, risk. So to rephrase what I said above - I'd like to know where a doctor or nurse, working in an ICU, "with all the precautions they can take" fits into that risk table.

[ex-khobar Andy]

This was a very healthy, lean 41 year old Broadway actor with no underlying health issues, and the virus destroyed his body.

This is one of the more infuriating parts of the narrative being peddled by the Trump death cult, that so long as someone infected can avoid death (whose probability they continually underplay), they will go on to a full recovery. Almost anyone who gets sick enough to need ICU care, and a substantial proportion of anyone else who gets seriously ill, is going to come away with irreparable damage that will cause lifelong impairments. This is a piece of the pandemic that does not get anywhere near enough coverage; every story about someone coming back from the edge of death is treated as a great victory, and short shrift is paid to the ongoing disabilities they will face.

Yes. Tragic for anyone but especially in one so young and so fit.

Trump's "99% of coronavirus cases are harmless" statement was one of his most bizarre yet. (And that is saying something.). Steven Hahn (FDA Commissioner) yesterday on CNN refused to condemn it. The current estimate for the death rate from CoV is around 5% but we all know it appears to be going down as more asymptomatic cases are identified. It may be that the final mortality rate will be less than 1% and maybe even 0.5%. There have been follow up studies which show intensive lung damage and/or significant heart deterioration and brain damage so Trump is just being his usual fucking ignorant self. People like Hahn should realize that they are paid by the public to guard their health and every one of them has at some point signed a statement that they would report science accurately. I know I did as a government contractor both for the feds and at state level.

It will be a while before we get final numbers. But even if death rate dips below 1% - and based on current evidence I think it will - I think that there will be permanent damage with huge implications for the future cost of healthcare in at least 5% to 10% of the affected population. An an older guy with heart issues and the wrong blood group (A+ : not unlike my college grades) I worry that one of those mythically 'harmless' sufferers will pass it on to me.

[Crackpot]

My point is that number would give a false impression of how communicable the disease is because Drs and nurses know what they are doing and have additional equipment available to minimize risk.

And perhaps the biggest factor:

They take this shit seriously!

[RayThom]

Just for comparison's sake, I'd like to see the relative risk numbers for a doctor or nurse in an ICU which treats COVID patients; and being an employee with customer interactions in a typical supermarket. I'm sure that, with all the precautions they can take, they are still in the 7 to 9 range.

My daughter has been taking care of patients at the NJ hospital where she practices since COVID became a thing. She has yet to report any colleagues who have contracted, or have been quarantined, due to the virus.

As for me, I was discharged from the hospital in late March after my gastric cancer surgery, and received home care for the following six weeks. Two of my home care nurses tested positive for the virus and they were removed from my case and quarantined. I was subsequently checked daily for COVID yet never had a problem.

PS. My daughter has been visiting me regularly during the pandemic. When she arrives I ask if she's been exposed, she asks me the same and, after our cursory assurances, we then greet each other with an embrace and a kiss. We go shopping, or order take out lunches and dinners, walk the local parks, but only wear face masks when in public -- not when we're alone together.

Using this as my anecdotal evidence, I feel that those in the medical professions do, in fact, take extraordinary measures to keep themselves safe. I'd put their risk assessment at 4 or 5.

[BoSoxGal]

The Guardian has an updating piece on US healthcare workers who have been killed by covid19; last I checked a couple of weeks ago, the total was just shy of 700.


Here’s a story about covid19 that you don’t want to read unless you’re prepared to be infuriated and to have your day most likely ruined. https://floridacovidvictims.com/2020/07 ... igh-davis/

[BoSoxGal]

RT, I’m a bit taken aback by your post. Many of the healthcare workers - doctors and nurses - I’ve seen interviewed are isolating from their families to prevent transmission of the virus. I’ve worked with numerous cancer patients undergoing chemo who don’t engage in hugging and kissing or handshaking even with family and friends because of how severely immunocompromised they are, especially while in active chemo treatment. I’m not looking to pick a fight, but just feel the need to express concern - and surprise that your daughter would feel comfortable potentially exposing you. There are some medical folks who don’t take the virus as seriously as others, but most who are seeing the devastation to hospitalized patients with covid19 take it very seriously. I hope at very least she isn’t coming to visit you straight from work or without showering to remove all potential virus on her person before embracing and kissing.

There’s a group of hundreds of scientists currently urging the W.H.O. to acknowledge that studies show this is actually an airborne virus which can linger in the airstream and infect people - which means it can travel onto hair and clothing, and back off again, which is why so many of the medical folks working in covid19 settings are either isolating from families or do a total strip down and shower before interacting with family. And of course even then, you don’t know if you have it and could be infecting others while asymptomatic, especially if you’re not getting tested daily with rapid result (which is apparently ~50% unreliable).

Like I said, not looking to pick a fight - but I did feel compelled to express concern. You essentially have zero immunity to infection at present. Even a regular summer cold could have serious consequences.

[Long Run]

There is a lot to quibble about that chart of risks. If going to a bar is an 8 out of 10, many of the activities on the list are way below 1 on the risk and closer to absolute zero than one (the chart appears mathematical scale, not exponential). There are hundreds of known cases of the virus being spread at bars. Last I checked, there were no known cases from a grocery store. The reason is clear: 99+% of spread is via air, so surface transmission is very rare; at the store, people move around, ventilation is generally pretty good, people are there for 5-15 minutes, don't talk much and have on masks; in contrast, at a bar, people sit close together and talk for lengthy time periods without masks. Just seems like "low risk" is a misnomer for activities that are virtually risk free if basic safety protocols are used. And, of course, there is no risk/benefit analysis -- going to the grocery store is essential, while going to a bar is completely discretionary and there are many far safer ways to socialize.

[BoSoxGal]

Are you only considering patrons of grocery stores in your assertion? This article is more than a month old - 6 weeks - and indicates at least 100 known grocery worker covid19 deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston ... -first/amp

[RayThom]

RT, I’m a bit taken aback by your post. Many of the healthcare workers - doctors and nurses - I’ve seen interviewed are isolating from their families to prevent transmission of the virus. I’ve worked with numerous cancer patients undergoing chemo who don’t engage in hugging and kissing or handshaking even with family and friends because of how severely immunocompromised they are, especially while in active chemo treatment...

There is much to be said for your words of caution, but it's not like my daughter and I are caviler about our weekly get-togethers. We know there are some elements of risk, but we also DO NOT attend "COVID parties" or get involved with any other types of large gatherings that increase the risk. It's almost always one-on-one.

We both have been in the presence of my brother and nephews over the last few months but it is when they are being helpful with some of the things I am still having problems with doing by myself. It's always a judgement call but one we're comfortable making.

My PCP and Oncologist both know my daughter's position at the hospital, and how me and her interact. Yes, they, too, have cautioned us on all the COVID dos-and-don't but because they know me so well they know they can only say so much.

If everybody else would take the same sensible approach to this pandemic there would be much less spreading of the disease. Callous disregard of the rules and regulations is the main problem. My family and I may skirt a few of these rules but we are surely not ignorant of them.

I'll keep you updated as changes arise.

[Long Run]

Are you only considering patrons of grocery stores in your assertion?

Yes, thanks for the clarification. My son works at a grocery store and they had a co-worker get the virus back in April. Like most work places, employees are at their grocery store, often not moving for an extended time and many of the positions regularly interact with other people, so they have a real risk of exposure and enough exposure/dosage to become infected.

[Long Run]

There is much to be said for your words of caution, but it's not like my daughter and I are caviler about our weekly get-togethers. We know there are some elements of risk, but we also DO NOT attend "COVID parties" or get involved with any other types of large gatherings that increase the risk.

For those who have lived "a good long time", there seem to be two camps. The first are those who are extremely concerned and greatly limiting their risk and normal activities. The second group are those who figure if this is what gets them, that's the way it goes -- they don't dance on the edge of a building but they keep doing a lot of their normal activities with minimal cautionary adaptations (e.g., masks indoors, wash hands, etc.).

[Joe Guy]

Didn't know where else to put this: Scenes we'd like to see

[Gob]

Karma can be a bitch!

The Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has announced live on television he has tested positive for coronavirus.

“It came back positive,” a mask-wearing Bolsonaro told a hand-picked group of reporters on Tuesday lunchtime outside his official residence.

“There’s no reason for fear. That’s life,” the president added. “Life goes on. I thank God for my life and the role I’ve been given to decide the future of this great nation that is called Brazil.”

Bolsonaro, 65, has repeatedly trivialized the pandemic and flouted social distancing, even as Brazil became the second-worst-hit country after the United States, with more than 65,000 deaths and 1.6m confirmed cases.

In March, as Covid-19 claimed its first victims in Brazil, the far-right populist used an address to the nation to brag that, if infected, he would quickly shake off the illness thanks to his “athlete’s background”.

Since then, Bolsonaro has continued to attend social events and political rallies, often wearing masks incorrectly, or not wearing them at all.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -president

[Scooter]

Given who it is, there are two possibilities. One, he actually has it, and we'll see how that plays out for him. Two, he doesn't actually have it, but is only saying he does so that he can say, "see, nothing serious about this at all, get back to your normal lives." Wouldn't put it past the con artist.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Yes, very likely, Scooter. It wouldn't surprise me if a certain Washington DC Floridian went down with it and magically recovered.

[Scooter]

Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity

Madrid (CNN)Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.

It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

There have been similar studies in China and the United States and "the key finding from these representative cohorts is that most of the population appears to have remained unexposed" to Covid-19, "even in areas with widespread virus circulation," said a Lancet commentary published along with Spain's findings.

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.

Doctors are uncertain whether having antibodies to the coronavirus means someone cannot be infected again. It's not clear how long or how well antibodies protect people from the virus.

Spain's peer-reviewed study began in April while the nation remained on a strict lockdown, and was conducted by leading government research and epidemiological agencies.

"The relatively low seroprevalence observed in the context of an intense epidemic in Spain might serve as a reference to other countries. At present,herd immunity is difficult to achieve without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems," the report reads.

The Spanish study's lead author, Marina Pollán, who is director of the National Center for Epidemiology, told CNN: "Some experts have computed that around 60% of seroprevalence might mean herd immunity. But we are very far from achieving that number."

Spain has been one of the countries in Europe hit hardest by the coronavirus, with more than 28,000 deaths and 250,000 cases.

The Lancet published results of the first phase of Spain's study, conducted from April 27 to May 11, which showed a nationwide antibody prevalence of 5%.

But the Madrid metropolitan area, the hardest-hit in the country by Covid-19, had more than 10% prevalence, and densely urban Barcelona had 7%, while many other coastal provinces had far lower rates.

Similarly, Geneva's prevalence was 10.8% in the Swiss study conducted from April to early May, the Lancet reported.

"With a large majority of the population being infection naïve, virus circulation can quickly return to early pandemic dimensions in a second wave once measures are lifted," the Lancet's commentary authors Eckerle and Meyer wrote of the findings.

Spain's second study phase results were released on June 4, showing a 5.2% national prevalence, just slightly higher than in the first phase. The results from the third and final phase were made public on Monday; they showed that national prevalence remained at 5.2%, Pollán said.

[Bicycle Bill]

-"BB"-

[MajGenl.Meade]

Haha - we have 80 bottles of wine stored up in the past couple of weeks

South Africa will immediately re-enforce a ban on the sale and distribution of alcohol to reduce the volume of trauma patients so hospitals have more beds open to treat COVID-19 patients, President Cyril Ramaphosa has said.

Confronted by surging hospitalisations because of the coronavirus outbreak, South Africa also reinstated a nighttime curfew to reduce traffic accidents and made it mandatory for all residents to wear face masks when in public.

Some of the squirrel's hoard:

[ex-khobar Andy]

Seriously, Meade, you might want to put some of that little stash on its side to keep the cork moist. I'm assuming that with 80 bottles you aren't planning to drink it all in a week. Cork (as opposed to rubber or plastic) is making a comeback as a stopper for wine bottles but it can dry out. As air gets into the wine through a drying cork, fungal action promotes the production of trichloroanisole which is the source of the 'earthy' smell of corked wines. Keeping the bottle on its side - label uppermost so you can see what you have - helps prevent corking especially when storage may be for months as opposed to weeks.

Screw tops are fine. I don't know what they use in the RSA wine industry (I see Glen Carlou and Chocolate Block there) but many European wines still use cork. When screw tops were first popular they became associated with cheaper wines which is unfortunate because it's probably the best way of making a hermetically consistent seal. Some people won't drink screw-top wines because they think it's a sign of an inferior wine. Give it here, I say. I'm not proud.

Cheers.