How Weird Is This?
Re: How Weird Is This?
depends how you look at it there aare a few areas of dense population with alot of sparse population in between and even the densce population with fewer exceptions isn't all that dense.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.
Re: How Weird Is This?
Nowhere has such a dense population as the USA...Crackpot wrote:depends how you look at it there aare a few areas of dense population with alot of sparse population in between and even the densce population with fewer exceptions isn't all that dense.
"runs away and hides...."
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Re: How Weird Is This?
I took a look at the idea that population densities might explain differences in murder rates. It doesn't seem to add up.
(Nationmaster's list of murder rates includes only 62 countries, so I used wikipedia's lists of population densities and "intentional homicide" rates.)
For this purpose, there are thirty-three European nations with higher population densities than the U.S.'s.[1] Of those thirty-three, only four have higher intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s. Of the twenty-nine nations with lower intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s, twenty-five have rates less than one-half the U.S.'s, twenty-two less than one-third, thirteen less than one-fourth, and five less than one-fifth.[2]
Then I thought, well, the U.S.'s population density is 9.361 times Canada's (81.854 vs. 8.744 per square mile), and only three of the aforementioned thirty-three nations have population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s (766.249 per squarae mile).[3] So I decided to take a look at all countries with population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s. There are twenty-eight such countries on the population-densities list; unfortunately, only sixteen of them appear on the intentional-homicide-rates list.[4]
Of those sixteen countries, only two have higher intentional-homicide rates that the U.S.'s.Of the fourteen nations with lower intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s, ten have rates less than one-half the U.S.'s, eight less than one-third, six less than one-fourth, and five less than one-fifth.[5]
There is no correlation between population density and intentional-homicide rate in the set of thirty-three European countries with population densities greater than the U.S.'s. Nor is there any such correlation when the U.S. and Canada are added to that set. There is no correlation between population density and intentional-homicide rate in the set of sixteen countries with population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s. Nor is there any such correlation when the U.S. and Canada are added to that set.
In sum, population densities appear to have nothing to do with intentional-homicide rates. It was an interesting idea, though.
-------------------------
1. Montenegro (116.436), Belarus (121.704), Lithuania (132.048), Ireland (164.042), Bulgaria (176.930), Bosnia and Herzogovina (191.276), Ukraine (201.364), Croatia (203.532), Macedonia (212.993), Greece (221.913), Romania (233.218), Spain (235.886), Austria (258.603), Serbia (260.757), Slovenia (264.109), Hungary (278.776), Albania (287.846), Slovakia (286.507), France (294.893), Portugal (298.183), Moldova (273.011), Poland (316.113), Denmark (331.723), Czech Republic (344.054), Switzerland (486.944), Luxembourg (502.981), Italy (502.981), Liechtenstein (582.439), Germany (593.105), United Kingdom (659.608), Belgium (918.604), Netherlands (1,036.803), and Malta (3,412.333).
Actually, there are thirty-seven such countries, but I have had to omit four of them: Latvia because it is the only one whose intentional-homicide rate is listed as "including attempts," which makes it not comparable to the other data; Andorra, Monaco, and San Marino because they do not appear on the intentional-homicide-rates list at all.
2. Where U.S. rate is 100: Lithuania (163), Belarus (151), Ukraine (141), Albania (114), Moldova (96), Montenegro (83), Bulgaria (51), Romania (50), Macedonia (40), Slovakia (39), Bosnia and Herzegovina (37), Croatia (32), France (32), Belgium (30), Serbia (29), Hungary (28), Czech Republic (27), Poland (26), United Kingdom (26), Portugal (25), Spain (24), Ireland (22), Italy (21), Denmark (20), Greece (20), Malta (20), Slovenia (20), Switzerland (20), Netherlands (18), Germany (17), Luxembourg (17), Austria (15), and Lichtenstein (0).
3. Belgium (918.604), Netherlands (1036.803), and Malta (3412.333).
4. The missing twelve are Burundi, Comoros, Grenada, Haiti, Marshall Islands, Monaco, Nauru, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, San Marino, Taiwan, and Tuvalu.
5. Barbados (150), Sri Lanka (134), Mauritius (80), Philippines (76), India (56), Bangladesh (53), South Korea (44), Israel (37), Belgium, (30), Maldives (26), Malta (20), Bahrain (19), Netherlands (18), Lebanon (11), Japan (9), and Singapore (8).
(Nationmaster's list of murder rates includes only 62 countries, so I used wikipedia's lists of population densities and "intentional homicide" rates.)
For this purpose, there are thirty-three European nations with higher population densities than the U.S.'s.[1] Of those thirty-three, only four have higher intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s. Of the twenty-nine nations with lower intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s, twenty-five have rates less than one-half the U.S.'s, twenty-two less than one-third, thirteen less than one-fourth, and five less than one-fifth.[2]
Then I thought, well, the U.S.'s population density is 9.361 times Canada's (81.854 vs. 8.744 per square mile), and only three of the aforementioned thirty-three nations have population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s (766.249 per squarae mile).[3] So I decided to take a look at all countries with population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s. There are twenty-eight such countries on the population-densities list; unfortunately, only sixteen of them appear on the intentional-homicide-rates list.[4]
Of those sixteen countries, only two have higher intentional-homicide rates that the U.S.'s.Of the fourteen nations with lower intentional-homicide rates than the U.S.'s, ten have rates less than one-half the U.S.'s, eight less than one-third, six less than one-fourth, and five less than one-fifth.[5]
There is no correlation between population density and intentional-homicide rate in the set of thirty-three European countries with population densities greater than the U.S.'s. Nor is there any such correlation when the U.S. and Canada are added to that set. There is no correlation between population density and intentional-homicide rate in the set of sixteen countries with population densities at least 9.361 times the U.S.'s. Nor is there any such correlation when the U.S. and Canada are added to that set.
In sum, population densities appear to have nothing to do with intentional-homicide rates. It was an interesting idea, though.
-------------------------
1. Montenegro (116.436), Belarus (121.704), Lithuania (132.048), Ireland (164.042), Bulgaria (176.930), Bosnia and Herzogovina (191.276), Ukraine (201.364), Croatia (203.532), Macedonia (212.993), Greece (221.913), Romania (233.218), Spain (235.886), Austria (258.603), Serbia (260.757), Slovenia (264.109), Hungary (278.776), Albania (287.846), Slovakia (286.507), France (294.893), Portugal (298.183), Moldova (273.011), Poland (316.113), Denmark (331.723), Czech Republic (344.054), Switzerland (486.944), Luxembourg (502.981), Italy (502.981), Liechtenstein (582.439), Germany (593.105), United Kingdom (659.608), Belgium (918.604), Netherlands (1,036.803), and Malta (3,412.333).
Actually, there are thirty-seven such countries, but I have had to omit four of them: Latvia because it is the only one whose intentional-homicide rate is listed as "including attempts," which makes it not comparable to the other data; Andorra, Monaco, and San Marino because they do not appear on the intentional-homicide-rates list at all.
2. Where U.S. rate is 100: Lithuania (163), Belarus (151), Ukraine (141), Albania (114), Moldova (96), Montenegro (83), Bulgaria (51), Romania (50), Macedonia (40), Slovakia (39), Bosnia and Herzegovina (37), Croatia (32), France (32), Belgium (30), Serbia (29), Hungary (28), Czech Republic (27), Poland (26), United Kingdom (26), Portugal (25), Spain (24), Ireland (22), Italy (21), Denmark (20), Greece (20), Malta (20), Slovenia (20), Switzerland (20), Netherlands (18), Germany (17), Luxembourg (17), Austria (15), and Lichtenstein (0).
3. Belgium (918.604), Netherlands (1036.803), and Malta (3412.333).
4. The missing twelve are Burundi, Comoros, Grenada, Haiti, Marshall Islands, Monaco, Nauru, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, San Marino, Taiwan, and Tuvalu.
5. Barbados (150), Sri Lanka (134), Mauritius (80), Philippines (76), India (56), Bangladesh (53), South Korea (44), Israel (37), Belgium, (30), Maldives (26), Malta (20), Bahrain (19), Netherlands (18), Lebanon (11), Japan (9), and Singapore (8).
Reason is valuable only when it performs against the wordless physical background of the universe.
Re: How Weird Is This?
I think local density has more effect than total density Andrew. THat being said I still think that it is only a factor in a much larger equasion.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.
Re: How Weird Is This?
New York population density 408.7/sq mi murder rate 4.8 per capita
London population density 10,596/square mi 2.2 per capita
Sydney population density 5,330.2/sq mi 1.8 per capita
London population density 10,596/square mi 2.2 per capita
Sydney population density 5,330.2/sq mi 1.8 per capita
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Re: How Weird Is This?
Are you sure that all those data line up, Gob? I've found, for example, that often what is considered "New York" in a population-density table is not the same as what is considered "New York" in a homicide-rate table. Some tables use cities proper (i.e., as defined by the city limits), some tables use Metropolitan Statistical Areas, etc. Also, it is not clear whether, for example, how the US Census Bureau defines a Metropolitan Statistical Area is how Statistics Canada defines a Metropolitan Area. And so forth. I have yet to find a source or sources by which population densities and homicide rates for cities (MSAs, MAs, etc.) in the US and Canada can be reliably compared.
Reason is valuable only when it performs against the wordless physical background of the universe.
Re: How Weird Is This?
Sorry Andrew, I just scanned for whatever facts I could find. You are right that they may not be convergent, but I don't think they are going to be very far out.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
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oldr_n_wsr
- Posts: 10838
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Re: How Weird Is This?
Be especially careful when you search "New York" as it's both a city and a state. 
ETA
408/sqmile seems a little low for NY City.
ETA
408/sqmile seems a little low for NY City.
Re: How Weird Is This?
It's a Wiki article, but it might shed some light on NYC:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi ... _York_City
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi ... _York_City
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: How Weird Is This?
Thanks
From Wiki
From Wiki
The city's population density of 26,403 people per square mile (10,194/km²), makes it the densest of any American municipality with a population above 100,000.[9] Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile (25,846/km²), highest of any county in the United States.[10][11]
Re: How Weird Is This?
The local-population-density hypothesis doesn't hold up either. I haven't found reliably comparable figures for cities around the world, but even among U.S. cities, there is no correlation between population density and murder rate.
(I am going by Wikipedia's lists of cities by crime rate (ranked by murder and nonnegligent manslaughter and multiplied to rate per 100,000 people for ease of reading) and cities by population density. The former includes all cities with populations of 250,000 or more. The latter includes all cities with population densities of 10,000 per square mile or more. I have also included Washington DC, because its population density is given in the text accompanying the list.)
First, looking at the most densely populated cities -- the "[p]rincipal cities (those not a part of a larger city's metro area)" from the population-densities list, plus Washington DC -- to see whether their population densities correlate with their murder rates. They do not. Those cities, with their population densities are:
New York City: 26,402.9
San Francisco: 16, 634.4
Chicago: 12,750.3
Boston: 12,165.8
Philadelphia: 11,233.6
Miami: 10,160.9
Washington DC: 9,316.4
The murder rates for those cities are:
New York City: 6
San Francisco: 6
Chicago: 16
Boston: 8
Philadelphia: 20
Miami: 14
Washington DC: 24
New York's population density is 2.83 times Washington's, but Washington's murder rate is 4 times New York's. New York's population density is 1.59 times San Francisco's, but their murder rates are identical. Chicago's population density is almost identical to Boston's, but Chicago's murder rate is twice Boston's. San Francisco's population density is 1.64 times Miami's, but Miami's murder rate is 2.33 times San Francisco's. New York's population density is 2.35 times Philadelphia's, but Philadelphia's murder rate is 3.33 times New York's. Etc.
Second, coming at it the other way -- looking at the cities with the highest murder rates to see whether their murder rates correlate with their population densities. The local-population-density hypothesis completely falls apart.
To start with, there is the crucial absence of most of the cities with the highest murder rates from the population-densities list. None of the four cities with the highest murder rates -- New Orleans (52), Detroit (40), St. Louis (40), and Baltimore (37) -- appears on the population-densities list at all.
And there is a distinct pattern of such absences. Of the twelve cities (three tied at tenth) in the top ten of murder rates, only two -- Newark (29) and Philadelphia (20) -- appear on the population-densities list. Expanding the comparison to the twenty-five cities with the highest murder rates adds only two cities -- Chicago (16) and Miami (14) -- that appear on the population-densities list.
In fact, of the seventy-six cities on the murder-rates list, only nine appear on the population-densities list. The local-population-density hypothesis is crashing and burning.
(Bear in mind that the scopes of the lists are not determined by rank. That is, the population-densities list includes all cities with populations densities of 10,000 or more per square mile (plus Washington DC), regardless of how many such cities exist; and the murder-rates list includes all cities with populations of 250,000 or more, regardless of how many such cities exist.)
The nine cities which appear on both lists, with their population densities and murder rates are:
New York City: 26,402.9 // 6
San Francisco: 16, 634.4 // 6
Long Beach: 16,594.9 // 9
Chicago: 12,750.3 // 16
Santa Ana: 12,451.9 // 7
Boston: 12,165.8 // 8
Newark: 11,495.0 // 29
Philadelphia: 11,233.6 // 20
Miami: 10,160.9 // 14
Washington DC: 9,316.4 // 24
Again, the numbers are all over the map. Here, again, are the contrasts mentioned above:
New York's population density is 2.83 times Washington's, but Washington's murder rate is 4 times New York's. New York's population density is 1.59 times San Francisco's, but their murder rates are identical. Chicago's population density is almost identical to Boston's, but Chicago's murder rate is twice Boston's. San Francisco's population density is 1.64 times Miami's, but Miami's murder rate is 2.33 times San Francisco's. New York's population density is 2.35 times Philadelphia's, but Philadelphia's murder rate is 3.33 times New York's. Etc.
Adding in Long Beach, Newark, and Santa Ana does not lead us toward any meaningful correlation. New York's population density is 1.59 times Long Beach's, but Long Beach's murder rate is 1.5 times New York's. San Francisco's population density is almost identical to Long Beach's but Long Beach's murder rate is 1.5 times San Francisco's. Long Beach's population density is 1.30 times Chicago's, but Chicago's murder rate is almost double (1.78 times) Chicago's. Etc.
New York's population density is 2.30 times Newark's, but Newark's murder rate is 4.83 times New York's. San Francisco's population density is 1.45 times Newark's, and Long Beach's population density is 1.44 times Newark's; but Newark's murder rate is 4.83 times San Francisco's and 3.22 times Long Beach's. Etc.
Chicago's population density is almost identical to Santa Ana's, but Chicago's murder rate is 2.29 times Santa Ana's. Santa Ana's population density is close to (1.08 times) Newark's, but Newark's murder rate is 4.14 times Santa Ana's. On the other hand, Boston's population density is almost identical to Santa Ana's, and their murder rates are also very close. Etc.
The upshot is that there is no correlation between U.S. cities' population densities and murder rates. I see no reason to think that such a correlation exists among cities around the world.
It was an interesting idea though ....
(Edited to correct three murder-rate figures to the proper order of magnitude; no substantive change.)
(I am going by Wikipedia's lists of cities by crime rate (ranked by murder and nonnegligent manslaughter and multiplied to rate per 100,000 people for ease of reading) and cities by population density. The former includes all cities with populations of 250,000 or more. The latter includes all cities with population densities of 10,000 per square mile or more. I have also included Washington DC, because its population density is given in the text accompanying the list.)
First, looking at the most densely populated cities -- the "[p]rincipal cities (those not a part of a larger city's metro area)" from the population-densities list, plus Washington DC -- to see whether their population densities correlate with their murder rates. They do not. Those cities, with their population densities are:
New York City: 26,402.9
San Francisco: 16, 634.4
Chicago: 12,750.3
Boston: 12,165.8
Philadelphia: 11,233.6
Miami: 10,160.9
Washington DC: 9,316.4
The murder rates for those cities are:
New York City: 6
San Francisco: 6
Chicago: 16
Boston: 8
Philadelphia: 20
Miami: 14
Washington DC: 24
New York's population density is 2.83 times Washington's, but Washington's murder rate is 4 times New York's. New York's population density is 1.59 times San Francisco's, but their murder rates are identical. Chicago's population density is almost identical to Boston's, but Chicago's murder rate is twice Boston's. San Francisco's population density is 1.64 times Miami's, but Miami's murder rate is 2.33 times San Francisco's. New York's population density is 2.35 times Philadelphia's, but Philadelphia's murder rate is 3.33 times New York's. Etc.
Second, coming at it the other way -- looking at the cities with the highest murder rates to see whether their murder rates correlate with their population densities. The local-population-density hypothesis completely falls apart.
To start with, there is the crucial absence of most of the cities with the highest murder rates from the population-densities list. None of the four cities with the highest murder rates -- New Orleans (52), Detroit (40), St. Louis (40), and Baltimore (37) -- appears on the population-densities list at all.
And there is a distinct pattern of such absences. Of the twelve cities (three tied at tenth) in the top ten of murder rates, only two -- Newark (29) and Philadelphia (20) -- appear on the population-densities list. Expanding the comparison to the twenty-five cities with the highest murder rates adds only two cities -- Chicago (16) and Miami (14) -- that appear on the population-densities list.
In fact, of the seventy-six cities on the murder-rates list, only nine appear on the population-densities list. The local-population-density hypothesis is crashing and burning.
(Bear in mind that the scopes of the lists are not determined by rank. That is, the population-densities list includes all cities with populations densities of 10,000 or more per square mile (plus Washington DC), regardless of how many such cities exist; and the murder-rates list includes all cities with populations of 250,000 or more, regardless of how many such cities exist.)
The nine cities which appear on both lists, with their population densities and murder rates are:
New York City: 26,402.9 // 6
San Francisco: 16, 634.4 // 6
Long Beach: 16,594.9 // 9
Chicago: 12,750.3 // 16
Santa Ana: 12,451.9 // 7
Boston: 12,165.8 // 8
Newark: 11,495.0 // 29
Philadelphia: 11,233.6 // 20
Miami: 10,160.9 // 14
Washington DC: 9,316.4 // 24
Again, the numbers are all over the map. Here, again, are the contrasts mentioned above:
New York's population density is 2.83 times Washington's, but Washington's murder rate is 4 times New York's. New York's population density is 1.59 times San Francisco's, but their murder rates are identical. Chicago's population density is almost identical to Boston's, but Chicago's murder rate is twice Boston's. San Francisco's population density is 1.64 times Miami's, but Miami's murder rate is 2.33 times San Francisco's. New York's population density is 2.35 times Philadelphia's, but Philadelphia's murder rate is 3.33 times New York's. Etc.
Adding in Long Beach, Newark, and Santa Ana does not lead us toward any meaningful correlation. New York's population density is 1.59 times Long Beach's, but Long Beach's murder rate is 1.5 times New York's. San Francisco's population density is almost identical to Long Beach's but Long Beach's murder rate is 1.5 times San Francisco's. Long Beach's population density is 1.30 times Chicago's, but Chicago's murder rate is almost double (1.78 times) Chicago's. Etc.
New York's population density is 2.30 times Newark's, but Newark's murder rate is 4.83 times New York's. San Francisco's population density is 1.45 times Newark's, and Long Beach's population density is 1.44 times Newark's; but Newark's murder rate is 4.83 times San Francisco's and 3.22 times Long Beach's. Etc.
Chicago's population density is almost identical to Santa Ana's, but Chicago's murder rate is 2.29 times Santa Ana's. Santa Ana's population density is close to (1.08 times) Newark's, but Newark's murder rate is 4.14 times Santa Ana's. On the other hand, Boston's population density is almost identical to Santa Ana's, and their murder rates are also very close. Etc.
The upshot is that there is no correlation between U.S. cities' population densities and murder rates. I see no reason to think that such a correlation exists among cities around the world.
It was an interesting idea though ....
(Edited to correct three murder-rate figures to the proper order of magnitude; no substantive change.)
Last edited by Andrew D on Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason is valuable only when it performs against the wordless physical background of the universe.
Re: How Weird Is This?
We'll just have to put it down to Americans being murderous sods then, when they ain't suing each other that is.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
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Sue U
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Re: How Weird Is This?
Try correlating murder rates to poverty rates. I meant to do this some weeks ago but didn't have time to look around for the stats (sorry, still don't).
GAH!
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: How Weird Is This?
Might want to include poverty areas along with the poverty rates. There are some dirt poor areas of NY City and some billionaire areas. Might not compare to cities that are better off (or less off).Sue U wrote:Try correlating murder rates to poverty rates. I meant to do this some weeks ago but didn't have time to look around for the stats (sorry, still don't).
Re: How Weird Is This?
The correlation is quite strong. Here are the ten cities with the highest poverty rates among cities with populations of at least 250,000:Sue U wrote:Try correlating murder rates to poverty rates. I meant to do this some weeks ago but didn't have time to look around for the stats (sorry, still don't).
1. Detroit, MI 32.5%
2. Buffalo, NY 29.9%
3. Cincinnati, OH 27.8%
4. Cleveland, OH 27.0%
5. Miami, FL 26.9%
5. St. Louis, MO 26.8%
7. El Paso, TX 26.4%
8. Milwaukee, WI 26.2%
9. Philadelphia, PA 25.1%
10. Newark, NJ 24.2%
And here are the twenty-five cities with the highest murder rates among cities with populations of at least 250,000:
1. New Orleans (52)
2. Detroit (40)
2. St. Louis (40)
4. Baltimore (37)
5. Newark (29)
6. Oakland (26)
7. Washington DC (24)
8. Buffalo (22)
9. Kansas City MO (21)
10. Cleveland (20)
10. Memphis (20)
10. Philadelphia (20)
13. Tulsa (18)
14. Chicago (16)
14. Cincinatti (16)
16. Atlanta (14)
16. Miami (14)
18. Dallas (13)
18. Houston (13)
18. Nashville (13)
21. Indianapolis (12)
21. Jacksonville (12)
21. Milwaukee (12)
21. Oklahoma City (12)
21. Pittsburgh (12)
Of the ten cities with the highest poverty rates, six are among the twelve cities ranked in the top ten for murder rates (three cities being tied for tenth): Detroit (#1 poverty / #2 murder), Buffalo (#2 / #8), Cleveland (#4 / #10), St. Louis (#6 / #2), Philadelphia (#9 / #10), and Newark (#10 / #5). Three more are among the twenty-five cities with the highest murder rates: Cincinnati (#3 / #14), Miami (#5 / #16), and Milwaukee (#8 / #21).
The only exception is El Paso, which has the seventh-highest poverty rate but is one of five cities tied for the second-lowest murder rate (2). (The others are Chandler AZ, Henderson NV, Honolulu HI, and Lincoln NE. The only city with the lowest murder rate (1) is Plano TX.)
The correlation is also quite strong at the State level. Here are the nine States with the highest poverty rates:
1. Mississippi 21%
(2. Washington DC 17% -- not included in the murder-rate table below)
2. Louisiana 17%
2. New Mexico 17%
5. Arkansas 17%
5. West Virginia 17%
5. Kentucky 17%
8. Oklahoma 15%
8. Texas 15%
8. Alabama 15%
And here are the twenty-five States with the highest murder rates:
1. Louisiana 11.8
2. New Mexico 8.7
3. Maryland 7.7
4. Tennessee 7.3
5. Alabama 6.9
6. Mississippi 6.4
6. Missouri 6.4
8. South Carolina 6.3
8. Michigan 6.3
10. Oklahoma 6.2
10. Arkansas 6.2
12. Illinois 6.0
13. Nevada 5.9
14. Georgia 5.8
15. Florida 5.5
16. Arizona 5.4
16. Texas 5.4
18. North Carolina 5.3
18. California 5.3
20. Pennsylvania 5.2
21. Indiana 4.8
22. Delaware 4.6
22. West Virginia 4.6
24. Ohio 4.5
25. Virginia 4.4
Of the nine States with the highest poverty rates, six are among the States ranked in the top ten for murder rates: Mississippi (#1 poverty / #6 murder), Louisiana (#2 / #1), New Mexico (#2 / #2), Arkansas (#5 / #10), Oklahoma (#8 / #10), and Alabama (#8 / #5). Two more are among the twenty-five States with the highest murder rates: West Virginia (#5 / #22) and Texas (#8 / #16). The only exception is Kentucky, which narrowly missed the top twenty-five States for murder rates; it is ranked fifth (17%) for poverty and twenty-seventh (4.1) for murder.
So:
--> 60% of the cities ranked in the top ten (the top 13%) for poverty are also ranked in the top ten (the top 13%) for murder;
--> 90% of the cities ranked in the top ten (the top 13%) for poverty are also ranked in the top twenty-five (the top 33%) for murder;
--> 67% of the States ranked in the top nine (the top 18%) for poverty are also ranked in the top eleven (the top 22%) for murder; and
--> 89% of the States ranked in the top nine (the top 18%) for poverty are also ranked in the top twenty-five (the top 50%) for murder.
It appears that we have a winner. The national-population-density hypothesis did not hold up. The municipal-population-density hypothesis also did not hold up. But the poverty-rate hypothesis is, at least thus far, holding up quite nicely.
Reason is valuable only when it performs against the wordless physical background of the universe.
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: How Weird Is This?
I'll bet the overall crime rate (not including murder) would follow a similar coorelation.
Re: How Weird Is This?
Andrew -- even though DC isn't included in the data about state murder rates, Maryland and VA surround DC and certainly the violence spills out into those states, especially in particular areas. So I would add another two data points supporting the theory.
“I ask no favor for my sex. All I ask of our brethren is that they take their feet off our necks.” ~ Ruth Bader Ginsburg, paraphrasing Sarah Moore Grimké
Re: How Weird Is This?
Can someone (who knows about the US) cross reference the murder rate = poverty rate with gun onwership rates?
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Re: How Weird Is This?
I have neither the time nor the computing power to do that...but I will point out that the city with the strictest gun laws (DC) is one of the worst. And per Andrew's data, at least 4 of the 6 cities with the LOWEST murder rates are in states with fairly liberal gun laws (Arizona, Nevada, Texas). I'm not familiar with Nebraska or Hawaii's gun laws.
Treat Gaza like Carthage.