Coronavirus

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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Scooter »

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Trying to imagine Trump as an air traffic controller:

United 542, you have traffic somewhere in front of you, over there , a bunch of miles, actually a lot of miles, some people would say not many miles, but I like to think of it as a lot.

The traffic is at the same altitude as you are; I was the first to notice it, before anyone else noticed it and you should be showing me more respect for providing the separation services that I give you.

We have many contingencies, the best contingencies, many altitudes that we can assign you. But I’m only here as a backup, the pilot should have the same altitudes so we don’t have to use my stockpile of altitudes.

I know the other airplane is getting closer and we have to act quickly, but the previous controller at this sector, yesterday, left everything a mess. I could turn you or make your airplane go up or down, as we say, go up or down, because planes are designed to do that like those beautiful Wright brothers intended.

A lot of people are saying that I make the best traffic calls and provide fantastic separation and the safety.

And now I’ll turn this over to Mike Pence.

-- Scott Straub
"The dildo of consequence rarely comes lubed." -- Eileen Rose

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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

:lol:

Actually though, it's so close to reality, that it's kinda tough to laugh... :?
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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Scooter »

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"The dildo of consequence rarely comes lubed." -- Eileen Rose

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bicycle Bill »

A couple of days ago Governor Evers of Wisconsin extended his March 24th "safer in place" declaration, originally scheduled to expire April 24th, out to May 26th, so I'm resigning myself to the fact that springtime is shot ... and summer ain't looking too good either.  But I'm still working at home and I do get time off for vacation; unfortunately, the company has a "use it or lose it" policy so I've made list of possible places to go this year:

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Any suggestions, anyone?
(keep it clean!)
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-"BB"-
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RayThom
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Coronavirus

Post by RayThom »

La Toilette.

Bombes loin!
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Joe Guy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Joe Guy »

Bonkers.

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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Scooter »

I lived through the AIDS crisis: like then, citizens must take control

I was lucky. Only four people who I loved died. It was bewildering to be caught up in so much illness and death. Over 10,000 died in the UK alone before there was effective treatment. To begin with it was pneumonia that took them; in time they got better at managing that. We had so many questions: why is the government so slow to respond? Why aren’t there the resources in the healthcare system to manage this? Why are my loved ones expendable? Why am I?

In the early '80s, as AIDS took hold, we whispered these questions amongst ourselves. The similarities between the coronavirus pandemic and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, are obvious.

In those early years of AIDS, there were people who realised what was happening and sought in vain to warn key decision-makers. It is the same with COVID-19. Some experts very early on drew analogies between AIDS and hepatitis B: AIDS was following a similar pattern of spread. They were ignored by people with power. Had they been listened to vast numbers of lives could have been saved.

Fast forward to January 2020 and the editor of The Lancet, alert to what was happening across the globe in relation to the coronavirus, was quick to publish his concerns (following earlier scepticism). No one listened. Under the circumstances, how terrible to be proved right.

Ignorance about transmission is another shared feature of both pandemics. You can't get HIV without intimate contact with a person who already has it. You can get the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 simply by spending time close to an infected person, if you're unlucky. They require a different health prevention response. Condoms, protecting the blood supply and avoiding direct contact with blood keeps HIV under control. Quarantine is the only solution to preventing infection with the coronavirus. The most effective way to spread COVID-19 is for people to mingle. Yet in the early moments of the current pandemic, messaging from those in power suggested that COVID-19 was avoidable without quarantine. That washing your hands, in and of itself, could keep you safe.

It was the opposite in the age of AIDS. People believed they would catch HIV through casual interaction with others. The failure to make clear the routes of transmission for both viruses was, and is, a significant failure in public policy. Ignorance breeds fake news. Will we really catch COVID-19 from our washed lettuce, or from a letter sent through the post? Theoretical risk needs to be authoritatively discounted.

Both conditions are caused by a virus which does not discriminate, yet those most affected become expendable: gay men in relation to AIDS in the UK, and older people for the coronavirus. AIDS was only taken seriously when straight women and some straight men were also infected. It is the same with the coronavirus. We comment mostly when younger people die.

HIV and COVID-19 have consequences for mental health. Fear of AIDS became part and parcel of AIDS. Its harm still haunts. The mental health repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic will live with us for years to come, and well after the virus has been brought under control.

HIV and COVID-19 also share mourning. During the AIDS crisis, we became expert at grief. How will we mourn those who died from the coronavirus? When your loss is part of a global pandemic, how do you make sense of that sorrow?

AIDS taught us that the crisis is not more important than the individuals affected by it. We talked about ‘people with AIDS’ (PWAs), not ‘AIDS victims’. They were people living as well as dying with AIDS. We put human dignity first and we looked after each other.

As with the early years of AIDS, those affected by the coronavirus are presented as faceless and nameless victims. This denial of dignity is a problem. It suggests that a higher value can be attached to some lives than others. We could not countenance that during the AIDS crisis. Ventilators must not be rationed.

The biggest lesson from AIDS is that it taught us to speak out. We stopped whispering in the shadows. There can be no deference to government or people with power during a pandemic. PWAs took control. They resolved that crisis. It was those most affected who ensured that governments, drug companies and healthcare providers stepped up. It was PWAs who demanded the treatment regimes that would go on to solve the crisis.

My four beloved friends did not die in vain. They helped pioneer a new future for healthcare where those most affected became key partners in its delivery. In this pandemic we need to follow their example. We cannot be passive. We need to multiply our toolkits to ensure we outlive COVID-19. If there are licensed ventilators to be had within the EU, we must compel our government, through the courts if necessary, to join all schemes that protect the right to life. We must demand access, again through the courts if need be, to experimental treatments.

And we must hold our government to account – legally if required – if it turns out that more of us died due to decisions they made or chose not to make.
"The dildo of consequence rarely comes lubed." -- Eileen Rose

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

I had one friend that I know of, who died of AIDS. 'Friend' is a stretch - I was, I suppose, his boss's boss. I didn't know Tony was gay - nor was there any reason I should have known. A happy, reliable, competent worker. Until one day he didn't come in. After three or four days it became clear this wasn't your normal cold or whatever and he told us that he had AIDS. Although this was early in the AIDS-time - I'd guess 1986* or so - there was no widespread fear that he'd spread it around the office because as scientists we were all reasonably well informed. My recollection is hazy, but I don't think it was a month between seeing him for the last time and Tony's funeral. I heard that his name was on the quilt but I haven't been able to find it.

(*Must have been 87 because I know that I'd very recently read 'And the Band Played On' which came out in 1987 - I just looked it up.)

In those far-off days people were still reluctant to come out as gay. I still think, but don't know, that Tony's parents did not know that he was gay. I talked to his mother at his funeral but it's not a question you can ask.

I have a problem with this part of the piece Scooter quoted:
And we must hold our government to account – legally if required – if it turns out that more of us died due to decisions they made or chose not to make.
Trump of course is a lousy example, but governments and health professionals all over the world have been making mistakes. I think here the parallel with AIDS is tenuous at best. AIDS-related decisions were mainly due to "it's them not us" thinking which of course should be and has been condemned. It's been obvious since the beginning that COV does not discriminate (OK it's worse for the elderly and evidence is mounting that its disproportionate effect on black Americans is due to more that just their relative poverty and overcrowded living conditions) but for the most part the victims are not THEM but US. I've been reading that maybe ventilators have been overused and that in fact they can exacerbate COVID rather than ameliorate it. I don't know the truth here but I trust doctors to read and understand that sort of evidence and change their procedures accordingly. I think most medical and political mistakes (again excepting Trump) have been made with the best of hopes and intentions. Doctors in particular are learning on the job.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Darren »

I'll have to ask Doc about the HIV part.

As far as the current issue with medical staff in some respects it seems to be the luck of the draw. Locally one person died on a ventilator another in a different hospital survived with the plasma treatment because the hospital was in a coop situation with the Mayo Clinic.

For a layman I've been astounded by the differences cross country and around the world. The recent discussions of microemboli are examples of a side effect of the red blood cell destruction and the inflammation as collateral damage in the battle between the virus and the body.

Why would doctors think to look for blood clots dealing with an amped up cold virus? The hint is the unusual rashes some people get.

Add in the stress of dealing with an overload of patients plus the unknown contagion aspects and they may yearn for their days as sleep deprived interns.
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

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First, the article is not speaking to decisions of medical management, but to decisions made in the political realm. Even there, I don't believe (Trump being the major exception) that decision making is being driven by the sort of indifference, and sometimes outright malice, that drove public policy in the early AIDS era. Nevertheless, there is necessarily a political calculus being applied to decision making in the current context, and yes, I do believe that governments need to be held to account if it is found that whatever risk/benefit tradeoffs being made are found to have boosted the death count.

A disturbing trend in Ontario is a good example. To this point in time, over 60% of COVID-19 deaths have occurred among residents of long-term care homes for the elderly. While it should have been expected that residents of LTC facilities would be particularly vulnerable, there are two clearly calculated decisions taken by the provincial government that almost certainly exacerbated the situation. The first, which predated COVID-19, was to shift resources away from surprise, comprehensive inspections that, up to two years ago, had captured almost 90% of identified violations of infection control standards, towards complaint-based inspections (i.e. tending to the squeaky wheel) which by design are less thorough and are anticipated by the home's management. The result was a precipitous drop in the number of infection control violations identified. The second, once COVID-19 outbreaks were identified in LTC facilities, was the failure to prohibit staff working in facilities with COVID-19 cases from continuing to also work in other LTC homes, which would have impacted staffing coverage in many LTC homes.

Both of these decisions almost certainly contributed the runaway COVID-19 outbreaks in several LTC homes, with the resultant excess mortality. It should absolutely be a matter for critical analysis and for holding those responsible to account.
"The dildo of consequence rarely comes lubed." -- Eileen Rose

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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

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“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Re: Coronavirus

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We should stay on lockdown a while longer until Big Carbon is fully dead. Then a Green New Deal with millions of jobs in the green energy sector and planting trees and rebuilding infrastructure. Coronavirus could help us save our environment, if we’re wise enough to take the opportunity.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/business ... index.html
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Re: Coronavirus

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NIH/UVA study finds no benefit, higher death rates in covid19 patients administered hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/h ... index.html
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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RayThom
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Coronavirus

Post by RayThom »

Who are you going to trust -- the fake NIH, or our Grifter-in-Chief?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Econoline »

The more we study it, the more we don't know about Sars-CoV-2. I suspect the surprises—and the mutations—will keep coming for years.
Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds
  • The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
  • New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States
A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur. They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s study provided the first hard evidence that mutation could affect how severely the virus caused disease or damage in its host.

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper. A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

But the weaker mutation did not mean a lower risk for everybody, according to Li’s study. In Zhejiang, two patients in their 30s and 50s who contracted the weaker strain became severely ill. Although both survived in the end, the elder patient needed treatment in an intensive care unit.

This finding could shed light on differences in regional mortality. The pandemic’s infection and death rates vary from one country to another, and many explanations have been proposed.

Genetic scientists had noticed that the dominant strains in different geographic regions were inherently different. Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof. The issue was further complicated because survival rates depended on many factors, such as age, underlying health conditions or even blood type.

In hospitals, Covid-19 has been treated as one disease and patients have received the same treatment regardless of the strain they have. Li and her colleagues suggested that defining mutations in a region might determine actions to fight the virus. “Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations … into account to avoid potential pitfalls,” they said.

Li was the first scientist to propose the Wuhan lockdown, according to state media reports. The government followed her advice and in late January, the city of more than 11 million residents was shut down overnight.

The sample size in this most recent study was remarkably small. Other studies tracking the virus mutation usually involved hundreds, or even thousands, of strains.

Li’s team detected more than 30 mutations. Among them 19 mutations – or about 60 per cent – were new. They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells. Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity.

To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest.

It was an unexpected result from fewer than a dozen patients, “indicating that the true diversity of the viral strains is still largely underappreciated,” Li wrote in the paper.

The mutations were genes different from the earliest strain isolated in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected in late December last year.

The coronavirus changes at an average speed of about one mutation per month. By Monday, more than 10,000 strains had been sequenced by scientists around the globe, containing more than 4,300 mutations, according to the China National Centre for Bioinformation.

Most of these samples, though, were sequenced by a standard approach that could generate a result quickly. The genes were read just once, for instance, and there was room for mistakes.

Li’s team used a more sophisticated method known as ultra-deep sequencing. Each building block of the virus genome was read more than 100 times, allowing the researchers to see changes that could have been overlooked by the conventional approach.

The researchers also found three consecutive changes – known as tri-nucleotide mutations – in a 60-year-old patient, which was a rare event. Usually the genes mutated at one site at a time. This patient spent more than 50 days in hospital, much longer than other Covid-19 patients, and even his faeces were infectious with living viral strains. “Investigating the functional impact of this tri-nucleotide mutation would be highly interesting,” Li and colleagues said in the paper.

Professor Zhang Xuegong, head of the bioinformatics division at the National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology at Tsinghua University, said ultra-deep sequencing could be an effective strategy to track the virus’ mutation. “It can produce some useful information,” he said.

But this approach could be much more time consuming and costly. It was unlikely to be applied to all samples.

“Our understanding of the virus remains quite shallow,” Zhang said. Questions such as where the virus came from, why it could kill some healthy young people while generating no detectable symptoms in many others still left scientists scratching their heads.

“If there is a discovery that overturns the prevailing perception, don’t be surprised.”
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RayThom
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Coronavirus

Post by RayThom »

From our Grifter-in-Chief's most trusted FUX News network:

COVID-19 treatment hydroxychloroquine showed NO BENEFIT, MORE DEATHS in VA virus study
https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-1 ... irus-study
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

Maybe now all the lupus and rheumatoid arthritis sufferers can get their meds again?
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Re: Coronavirus

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For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

It's tough to know where we're ultimately going to wind up in terms of total Covid-19 deaths because it depends on so many factors that are currently unknown...(Will an effective treatment be found that can reduce the death rate? How soon? How soon will we have a vaccine? Will the majority of the country continue to follow effective social distancing and other life-saving measures?, etc.)

But one thing is pretty obvious...

With the overall death toll now passing the 45,000 mark, and the 1500- 2800 daily total of new deaths, (yesterday was another record setter) we are going to blow past the most "optimistic" estimate of 60,000 in fairly short order... :cry:
Last edited by Lord Jim on Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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