Plan B Forum

If you have two explanations available to account for a given action or event...

Which theory is more likely to be true:

Theory I: Involves an elaborate conspiracy with a lot of people acting with extraordinary competence and ability...(frequently for, "reasons unknown"...)

Theory II: Involves sheer human stupidity and/or incompetence, on the part a relatively small number of people...

I don't know about you, but I'm going to go with Door Number Two every single time...

I may not be right every time, but I'm sure as hell not gonna broke betting that way...

II is shown to be more likely by historical precedent.

Theory II could be called lowest common denominator or application of Ockham's razor

Theory I usually only happens in well made movies or television series...

Theory II is what generally happens in reality...

-"BB"-

This thread is Hohmphobic.

I go with Occam's Razor.

Anyhow, conspiracy theories make for good fiction. It's a waste of time for most reality.

datsunaholic wrote:I go with Occam's Razor.

Anyhow, conspiracy theories make for good fiction. It's a waste of time for most reality.

Whenever I hear someone start to spout off about how something is a plot and "the government/CIA/military/FBI/etc. is doing this..." I immediately begin sidling away and putting space between myself and said wacko, just in case whatever he's got might be contagious.  The last plot that was successfully pulled off by *ANY* government was probably the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.  D-Day?  Hell, no!  Everybody in Europe knew we were coming; there was no hiding a million men and their materiel and sneaking them onto the French coast under the cover of darkness.  The best we could do was a lot of subterfuge and misdirection so that the Wehrmacht didn't know exactly where or when.

In the words of Tom Wolfe —

"The problem with fiction, it has to be plausible.  That's not true with non-fiction."

So conspiracy theories make for *BAD* fiction, because so many conspiracy theories stretch the plausibility factor beyond all possible limits.

-"BB"-

Any specific event(s) that brought this OP about?

My racist upbringing was all about the conspiracy. The Queen of England secretly runs everything, apparently backed by the Illuminati, free Masons, Zionists, Rhodes Scholars and a few other groups. (Spell check insisted I capitalize Illuminati, if that isn't proof....)

Meanwhile I have a coworker who buys into all of this. The interesting part is that he is Black. It's a new experience for me to meet a person of color who indulges in this. He spews all the same crap minus the racist parts.

What you never heard of "The Real"?

No Greater Fool wrote:Any specific event(s) that brought this OP about?

An accumulation of recent things really...I seem to have run into a lot of conspiracy theories lately...

The culminating one was at a neighborhood party recently, where I ran into an honest-to-God 9/11 "Truther".

I don't have occasion to actually meet one in the flesh very often...none of my RL friends buy that loony tune bullshit...Kelly had to pull me away from the poor guy...(I'm told that occasionally my sarcasm may tip over the line into rudeness, but frankly I don't see it... )

The interesting part is that he is Black. It's a new experience for me to meet a person of color who indulges in this.

That doesn't really surprise me. Also, there are conspiracy theories that exist primarily in the African American community...I posted about a couple recently; the phony "the CIA is importing crack to destroy Black communities" and the equally baseless "The Bush Administration had the levees in New Orleans deliberately blown up to flood out Black neighborhoods"

I haven't seen any recent polling, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a very significant percentage of Black people to this very day continue to believe that OJ Simpson was the innocent victim of a racist conspiracy by the LAPD to frame him.

Crackpot wrote:What you never heard of "The Real"?

Nope.

Most conspiracy theories can be explained by incompetence and laziness ,some of the worst fiasco are not even viewed as conspiracies .Government has became to large and secretive for people to take to task ,we have to live with what they do and most of them can drive by in their chaffuered limos .For instance ,how can a largely wealthy bunch of "public servants " vote themselves pay raises ,usually exceeding COLA ,while talking about cutting SS benefits ?

kmccune wrote:Most conspiracy theories can be explained by incompetence and laziness ,some of the worst fiasco are not even viewed as conspiracies .Government has became to large and secretive for people to take to task ,we have to live with what they do and most of them can drive by in their chaffuered limos .For instance ,how can a largely wealthy bunch of "public servants " vote themselves pay raises ,usually exceeding COLA ,while talking about cutting SS benefits ?

Because their employers — we the taxpayers — aren't really paying attention.  Most of us just don't give a shit.  As long as gas is under $2.00 a gallon, we can gamble to our heart's content on fantasy leagues and the March Madness bracket, and we can still get our daily celebrity fix on the internet nobody is really watching to see what is going on in Washington.

We really need to get out our torches, pitchforks, and Phrygian caps and march on Washington just like the French citizenry did back in 1789 when they stormed the Bastille and touched off the French Revolution and the Reign of Terror.

I'm not saying that we need to erect a guillotine someplace on the National Mall, but the people who occupy the seats of power in the halls of government should occasionally be reminded that they are there at *OUR* discretion.

-"BB"-

That doesn't really surprise me. Also, there are conspiracy theories that exist primarily in the African American community...I posted about a couple recently; the phony "the CIA is importing crack to destroy Black communities"

Jim--I see you point, but then I would think your test would also dismiss the theory that the US Public Health Service was deliberately not treating black people who had syphilis, giving them no drugs when they cam in for treatment, to see what happens. Face it, all it takes is for one conspiracy (the more outlandish the better) to be shown to be true, for the rest to be believed (or at least wondered about).

Indeed, as history has shown, people are capable of doing almost anything, and often can keep it quiet as well.

Again, I don't dismiss your test as worthless--we can't be like Don Quixote claiming every windmill is a giant, but our skepticism has to allow that they might be giants, because once in a while they are.

As for your point about Simpson, is it beyond credibility that a few sought to frame him by planting evidence (even if he was guilty)? Face it, we saw the same with nonprofessionals in the Klaus von Bulow case, and given the tendency for the blue line to cover up for brother police officers, it honestly would not have surprised me at the time if the two detectives planted some evidence to seal his conviction. I'm not saying it happened, but it's not impossible either.

There was a recent report on NPR about current public health treatment for aids and it was noted that some hospitals respond to a patient with pneumonia with a test for HIV/aids, as that is now one of the first illness's to hit with a weakened immune system--but not for Afro-American patients. For them they just treat the pneumonia. 'Separate and un-equal' based on race is still around.

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