Plan B Forum

A terrific TED Talk by lawyer and McArthur Genius Fellow Bryan Stevenson that I encourage you all to watch.

As described by TED:

In an engaging and personal talk — with cameo appearances from his grandmother and Rosa Parks — human rights lawyer Bryan Stevenson shares some hard truths about America's justice system, starting with a massive imbalance along racial lines: a third of the country's black male population has been incarcerated at some point in their lives. These issues, which are wrapped up in America's unexamined history, are rarely talked about with this level of candor, insight and persuasiveness.

https://www.ted.com/talks/bryan_stevens ... anguage=en

Wow. He covers a lot of things in just 20 minutes. Very inspiring.


yrs,
rubato

WOW...just WOW.



ETA: Thank you for sharing that, Guin.

Well worth the extra 2:23 over the allotted 20. Stevenson is a mesmerizing orator and the ideal spokesperson for California Proposition 62 -- and I wish him well. Unfortunately it appears that Prop 66 is gaining momentum and will be the winning choice of voters on November 8th.

Unfortunately it appears that Prop 66 is gaining momentum and will be the winning choice of voters on November 8th.

Ftfy...

California voters, among the most reliably liberal in the nation, have an opportunity to pass a repeal of the death penalty in November. Proposition 62 would commute the sentence of those on California’s Death Row to life without parole and require a higher percentage of inmate income to go to victim restitution. With opposition to the death penalty a big progressive goal, and with California’s execution process among the slowest and most frustrating in the nation, one would expect overwhelming support for Proposition 62.

Not so, according to a new poll from Survey USA. In fact, opposition to repeal leads by sixteen points, 36/52, and leads among almost all demographics. Majorities of both men (38/54) and women (33/50) oppose repeal. Voters under the age of 35 oppose it in plurality (40/45), but all other age groups oppose it by majorities and double-digit gaps. Black voters and Democrats support repeal, but not significantly enough to overcome overwhelming opposition among all other ethnic and partisan groups. Perhaps most tellingly, the only ideological demo to support repeal are those who identify as “very liberal” — and even then unimpressively at 52/32. Even the ultra-liberal Bay Area has a slight plurality opposed to repeal, 42/47.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/13/h ... alty-5236/



ETA:

If Prop 66 were the only thing on the ballot this year, I would show up to vote for it...

In the nearly 30 years I have lived in California, it will be the single most enthusiastic vote I have ever cast...



http://noprop62yesprop66.com/

Jim...I'd be interested in your take on Bryan Stevenson's entire TED talk, rather than on just Ray's comment on the one minute or so he spends on the death penalty. Have you watched it yet?

And I really, really don't want this thread to turn into just another thread about the death penalty--even more than on guns and gun control it seems like the opinions on the DP of everyone here are set in stone and will never be changed--but as long as Ray brought the subject up... What's your take on this short excerpt (copied from the transcript)? Is there some "acceptable" error rate that's okay? (And if so, why?)

• Death penalty in America is defined by error. For every nine people who have been executed, we've actually identified one innocent person who's been exonerated and released from death row. A kind of astonishing error rate -- one out of nine people innocent. I mean, it's fascinating. In aviation, we would never let people fly on airplanes if for every nine planes that took off one would crash. But somehow we can insulate ourselves from this problem. It's not our problem. It's not our burden. It's not our struggle.

But please do watch, listen to, or read the whole talk. Stevenson is a wonderful and inspiring speaker, and even if you disagree with him I'd be interested to find out why.

For starters, this claim is a gross exaggeration:

For every nine people who have been executed, we've actually identified one innocent person who's been exonerated and released from death row. A kind of astonishing error rate -- one out of nine people innocent.

Yeah, I guess it would be, if it were actually true:

Since 1973, 144 people on death row have been exonerated. As a percentage of all death sentences, that's just 1.6 percent.

http://www.newsweek.com/one-25-executed ... ims-248889

(That article also talks about a study that hypothesizes that the number of innocent people sentenced to die could be as high as 4%, but the quote in that video transcript excerpt claims that the number "exonerated and released from death row" is one in ten, a blatant falsehood. And even the hypothetical four percent number is far lower than that.)

Mr. Stevenson appears to have pulled that one in ten number completely out of his, uh...hat...

If this quote is a representative example of the regard for factual accuracy that I can expect from the entire video, if I decide to watch it I clearly will need to put aside a lot more time than 20 minutes...

I'll need at least two to three times again that much time for fact checking...

The excerpt you posted leads me to strongly suspect what I already kinda suspected...

That this presentation is long on impressive oratory and short on substantive veracity...

As for your question regarding what I would consider to be an "acceptable" error rate re the DP...

Years ago Andy H tried to pin me down to a number on that... (his clear intent was to get me to commit to a number and then somehow try to prove it was higher than that) I declined to fall into that trap then, and I decline to do so now...

I'll answer the question the same way I did at that time:

I am absolutely delighted that modern scientific methodology has resulted innocent people no longer facing the DP. In my opinion these advances strengthen the argument for the DP, rather than weakens it because they assure that the execution of innocent people will be far lower than it otherwise might have been. (I say "might" because of course there is no study proving that innocent people have in fact been executed in the US in modern times, there are only studies showing hypothetical models that suggest this to have been the case.)

I refuse to assign a percentage number to what I would consider to be an "acceptable" error rate in executions. I DO NOT want innocent people to be executed at all. (Any more than I want any innocent person to be killed by someone on the highway.)

The number should as absolutely low as can be reasonably made possible, while still seeing that justice exists for all concerned parties. Today that includes using the full suite of modern forensics, including of course DNA testing. For years I have advocated that DNA testing be mandatory and provided at state expense in any case where such testing could be dispositive in establishing guilt or innocence. (Not just DP cases; I don't want innocent people sitting in prison either.)

Can somebody tell me about the California Initiative and Referendum procedure--particularly the numbering?

Once upon a time I wrote customer literature about hazards and risks of using the products my employer made. Included was the infamous "CA Prop 65 Warning" At least it was infamous among safety professionals working with hazard communication. This was a special warning about cancer or reproductive or birth defects using materials "known to the State of California to cause. . . ."

Infamous, because most other parts of the world did not agree at all about many of the chemicals on the list. This led to inside jokes about the special hazards of crossing the California state line.

I note there is a Prop 65 on the ballot in California this year and it is about plastic bags. The list of propositions on the ballot is long, but it does not start at one. How are these things numbered and is there much confusion about different propositions passed in different years with the same number?

snailgate

Here ya go SG:

Proposition numbering

Originally, ballot propositions were given a number starting at one each year. This tended to be confusing as often famous initiatives such as Proposition 13 in 1978 might be confused with another initiative in a later year if there were more than twelve proposals on the ballot in any given year. Starting in 1982, the proposition numbers were not re-used but would continue to increment until at least a decade had passed from when a particular one had appeared on the ballot, eventually resulting in proposition numbers exceeding 200. Starting with the 1998 ballot, the count has been reset back to one. It is now reset every ten years.[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Californi ... roposition

It's a pretty good article on the whole procedure and the history.

Thank you Guin.

Lord Jim wrote:For starters, this claim is a gross exaggeration:

For every nine people who have been executed, we've actually identified one innocent person who's been exonerated and released from death row. A kind of astonishing error rate -- one out of nine people innocent.

Since 1973, 144 people on death row have been exonerated. As a percentage of all death sentences, that's just 1.6 percent.

Mr. Stevenson appears to have pulled that one in ten number completely out of his, uh...hat...

Total number of executions since capital punishment was reinstated in 1976 (including 2016): 1437

144 ÷ 1437 = (you do the math)

Econoline wrote:

Lord Jim wrote:For starters, this claim is a gross exaggeration:

For every nine people who have been executed, we've actually identified one innocent person who's been exonerated and released from death row. A kind of astonishing error rate -- one out of nine people innocent.

Since 1973, 144 people on death row have been exonerated. As a percentage of all death sentences, that's just 1.6 percent.

Mr. Stevenson appears to have pulled that one in ten number completely out of his, uh...hat...

Total number of executions since capital punishment was reinstated in 1976 (including 2016): 1437

144 ÷ 1437 = (you do the math)

well, ok. But I'd put the numbers the other way. 1437/144 = 9.98

I don't know what data set he used but this one has it that for every 10 executed there was an innocent person exonerated. Very close to what he said. Not surprising since this is his life work and he would be expected to be well informed.

But to me, if even 1.6% of people convicted and sentenced to die were innocent that would be profoundly shocking. A shameful failure of the judicial system.

yrs,
rubato

Econoline wrote:

Lord Jim wrote:For starters, this claim is a gross exaggeration:

For every nine people who have been executed, we've actually identified one innocent person who's been exonerated and released from death row. A kind of astonishing error rate -- one out of nine people innocent.

Since 1973, 144 people on death row have been exonerated. As a percentage of all death sentences, that's just 1.6 percent.

Mr. Stevenson appears to have pulled that one in ten number completely out of his, uh...hat...

Total number of executions since capital punishment was reinstated in 1976 (including 2016): 1437

144 ÷ 1437 = (you do the math)

Just who exactly is pulling numbers out of their, ah, what was it?

Words matter and you can bet Mr. Stevenson said exactly what he meant.

Okey dokey...

In that case, what Mr. Stevenson has done is select from two different sets of statistics and then combined those selections to achieve a high number for what he erroneously characterizes as a "error rate"...

Using the standard of the number of executions carried out, using his numbers, the "error" rate would be zero...

Since presumably those who were "exonerated and released from death row" were not executed, and he presents no numbers showing exonerated people who were executed...

On the other hand, if instead you compare like-to-like, (people sentenced to death overall versus people sentenced to death who were later exonerated) then you have the 1.6% number...

The formulation he uses to reach his one out of ten number is not a valid one for computing an "error rate"...

Cameron Todd Willingham

http://camerontoddwillingham.com/


One is a million too many when it comes to the death penalty.

Exoneration and execution are the definitive end points of the process of justice. Makes sense to use them for comparison.

Anyone convicted and sentenced might at some time in the future be exonerated if they are alive. Thus the 1.6% figure is not the actual ratio but the minimum percentage of false convictions and death sentences, to date.

BoSoxGal wrote:Cameron Todd Willingham

http://camerontoddwillingham.com/


One is a million too many when it comes to the death penalty.

Terrible story, a needless murder of an innocent man.

yrs,
rubato

Look On The Bright Side.....

By Nate Gartrell | ngartrell@bayareanewsgroup.com

September 18, 2016 at 12:50 pm



MARTINEZ — A capital murder case experienced a rare moment of levity Wednesday, arising from the dreariest of scenes.

Jurors in the trial for Darnell Washington — a jail escapee accused of murdering a retired Hercules teacher to steal her car — were forced to wait for two hours in the windowless hallways of the A.F. Bray courthouse Wednesday morning, as attorneys inside discussed a legal issue involving witness testimony.

In these situations, things can get awkward for jurors; they’re all strangers, having been plucked randomly out of society and given this immense responsibility. Though they’ve been together since the trial started, July 25, they’re forbidden from discussing the one thing they all have in common: the case.

But apparently these jurors have one other mutual interest: music.

As the waiting approached the two-hour mark, a juror pulled out a smart phone and began playing a recording of Johnny Nash’s #1 Billboard Hit, “I can see clearly now.”

One began singing along, then two, and within seconds a chorus of jurors had erupted in song. Of course, a courtroom bailiff picked that moment to poke his head through the door and tell them they’d been called back inside.

“I think we’re starting to lose it,” one juror joked on his way back in.

Let's see what deathpenaltyinfo.org says, in reference to the "more than 150" people on death row who were exonerated upon further investigation/application to courts and were note executed:

There is no way to tell how many of the more than 1,000 people executed since 1976 may also have been innocent. Courts do not generally entertain claims of innocence when the defendant is dead. Defense attorneys move on to other cases where clients' lives can still be saved. Some cases with strong evidence of innocence include:

It then lists 13 "possibly" innocent but executed persons.

There is no evidential (but much pure speculative exercise) value in comparing the number of cases in which guilty verdicts were overturned on appeal (or upon further investigation/confession by another) to the number of executions. To claim that because Person A was found innocent, then person X who was executed 10 years ago probably was innocent is obvious rubbish, even to statistical charlatans.

... who probably prays daily for his execution:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... n-why.html

In the early 1970s, he may as well have been wearing a target on his back.

In 1975 Johnson challenged his conviction partly on the basis of his allegedly coerced confession. He testified that he was beaten by the investigating officers and forced to sign a typed confession drafted by a police officer without being given an opportunity to read it. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania refused to suppress the confession and order a new trial, and Johnson receded back into the prison system where he was about to disappear for the next four decades.

In 1977, the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a series called the “Homicide Files” that exposed the high number of false confessions elicited by Philadelphia police in the years following Von Colln’s death.

yrs,
rubato