Plan B Forum

Posted: **Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:23 pm**

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/21/ ... -collapse/

Global PV module prices collapse

The predicted fall in global PV module prices appears to have already begun, with PVInsights and EnergyTrend reporting average prices in the $0.27-$0.37/W range. Well, that didn’t take long.

Only days after the Chinese government announced a substantial withdrawal of support for solar PV on May 31, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) responded with a report forecasting that global PV module prices would fall 34% this year, estimating that monocrystalline silicon modules would cost only $0.24 per watt by the end of the year.

The note also predicted “market panic” in the short term. Only a few weeks later both dynamics to appear to be at play, according to data by PVInsights and EnergyTrend.

As of Wednesday, PVInsights estimated average PV module prices had fallen to $0.278 per watt for standard multicrystalline modules, with multi-PERC modules coming in at an average of $0.337 per watt, and mono-PERC modules at $0.363 per watt.

A lot of technologies have taken a good run at monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon based panels and foundered on the rocks as prices kept falling. The thin-film printed panels are like the horse that never quite finishes in the money in the triple crown. They'll always get some backers anyway. They offer potentially much cheaper manufacturing processes at the cost of lower efficiency and never quite manage to get the right balance.

yrs,
rubato

PERC is a cell architecture which can be used for either poly or mono crystalline cells. Instead of only having electrical contacts on the front it has them on the front and the back to improve electron capture.

Posted: **Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:43 pm**

I had a really thoughtful follow up I was going to post, but then I decided that since I don't don't care about the future of mankind there was no reason to bother...

Posted: **Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:33 pm**

I'm kind of a forward thinker and I have an idea for generating power that is more organic than solar batteries. I don't want to give it away just yet, but here's a hint -

Posted: **Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:34 pm**

First off, I say to hell with all that PERC nonsense. LENR is the only way to go.

Because I care about the future of mankind I have invested all my resources into cold fusion.

A few more tweaks to the KEL-F plug and the thermistor connections and success will be mine -- I will have saved the world, and most of mankind.

You can thank me later.

Posted: **Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:41 am**

Your thanks are in the mail!

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:33 am**

Lord Jim wrote:I had a really thoughtful follow up I was going to post, but then I decided that since I don't don't care about the future of mankind there was no reason to bother...

Isn't it supposed to have double electrical contacts (front and back) rather than double negatives?

Posted: **Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:27 pm**

Double negatives are a no-no.

Posted: **Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:28 pm**

Small-scale photovoltaic will have a huge impact in rural Africa and Asia just from the ability to refrigerate heat-sensitive pharmaceuticals, preserve food and provide lighting at night. And cold beer, of course, everyone needs cold beer.

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:05 pm**

Joe Guy wrote:I'm kind of a forward thinker and I have an idea for generating power that is more organic than solar batteries. I don't want to give it away just yet, but here's a hint -

Version 2.0

Think of all the jobs this would create ....
.... and how much healthier people would be from all that exercise!!

-"BB"-

Posted: **Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:05 pm**

millions of roofs (and why aren t they called rooves?) are just sitting there without solar panels.

shame!

shame!

SHAME!!!!!

NO PANELS, NO HEAT!

NO PANELS, NO PEACE!

Posted: **Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:53 pm**

I'm not going to be responsible for climbing up onto my roof to install and maintain solar panels.
All I ask of my roof is that it sheds water, doesn't leak,

and doesn't collapse under the weight of the snow in the winter months.

-"BB"-

Posted: **Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:04 am**

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/25/ ... r-by-2020/

Global PV market to diversify, reach 200 GW a year by 2020

According to a new report from the PV Market Alliance (PVMA), the global solar PV market will only be marginally affected by the recent China policy decisions, and will grow to become an up to 200 GW market by 2022. Diversification will continue, with new segments accounting for up to 25% of the entire market by this time.
June 25, 2018 Becky Beetz

India, Europe, and “many emerging markets on all continents” are expected to see strong PV growth in 2018.

In its most recent Global PV Market Report, the PVMA has said that despite a possible decrease this year on the back of the Chinese Government’s recent, and abrupt, policy changes, the global solar PV market is not expected to be significantly affected.

Indeed, it forecasts that outside of China, the market will grow from 45 GW in 2017, to over 60 GW this year, while China will “at best” see market stagnation, or experience a “possible decrease”. ... "

In perspective, nuclear power plants typically produce 1-2 GW per reactor.

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:41 pm**

But they produce it morning noon, and night...sunny, overcast, rain, snow, summer, winter. The theoretical (nameplate) capacity is one thing...the real world is quite different.

Typically, a nuclear plant has a capacity factor of 85-90%. In perfect conditions (Phoenix, Santa Fe, etc), solar tops out around 25%.

Posted: **Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:32 pm**

China is the global leader in installing renewable power systems. They have 3x more solar hot water heating than all of the rest of the world put together. They install the most photovoltaic per year. And they have the largest installed wind power generation by far.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/17/ ... ew-policy/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/260 ... -capacity/

We are lagging far behind nationally with a couple of states being exceptions to the pokey adoption.

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:00 pm**

We are lagging far behind nationally

Yeah, well, not really...

In raw numbers, based on that chart China is out performing the US on this by about 33%....

A little over 90K MW versus a little over 60K MW ...

But raw numbers would be the complete wrong way to judge this when comparing one country (China) with a population that is more than four times greater than the other (The US)

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... tion+china

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... lation+usa

By the far more logical and rational standard of a per capita basis, the US free enterprise based system is vastly out performing the Chinese command economy model for wind power capacity...

Posted: **Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:49 pm**

Running 24-7 with reactors looks good compared with only-during-daylight. But those real world reactors actually are off line for an average of 2 months per year for maintenance--and that is when every thing is running like the engineers hope for. Personally, I am a skeptic about solar panels on my home roof. As it was said above, the main job of the roof is to keep the weather out of the house. Fixing leaks with all those panels up there looks like a bad job to me. On the other hand, vertical axis turbines could be as common as tv antennas in the 50's up there.

The basic problem with electricity is storage. Nothing as cheap or efficient as a coal bin or a 55 gallon drum is available. The best so far is massive bulk storage of falling water, like the Niagara river or Lake Mead.

snailgate.

Posted: **Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:40 am**

….the US free enterprise based system is vastly out performing the Chinese command economy model for wind power capacity...

With that gas bag in DC is it any wonder?

Posted: **Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:07 am**

I'd actually love to put solar panels on my roof. Half my roof faces South, and it's a metal roof so maintenance isn't really an issue vs composite or wood.

My Mom had solar panels installed about a year ago. The system she has generates more than she uses for 3/4 of the year. She had no power bill from spring all the way through mid/late fall, only finally having some grid power use in December. Not bad for a 3500 sqft house with WAY too many lights. But even with no power bill for 9 months of the year, it'll never pay for itself.

And that's why I don't have solar panels. I'd need it to better than break even. During the summer, when I would have the best power generation, I only have about a $60/month power bill. Doubles in the winter. Can't sell the power surplus back here; all you can do is run the usage bill to zero, but here you still have to pay the "minimum service charge" even with zero use.

Posted: **Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:18 am**

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/03/21/ ... w-in-2018/

Canadian Solar’s PV module shipments surpass 6.6 GW in 2018

Canadian Solar is, or course, a Chinese company.

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is one of the largest, and most misunderstood, companies in the solar industry. ... But it makes those products in China, and since it gets most of its funding for manufacturing in that nation it's more of a Chinese company than it is Canadian, despite it's corporate headquarters in Ontario.Apr 2, 2015

The Chinese are outperforming the US by more than 10x.

2011 global top 10 solar cell manufacturers by capacity

Company Capacity (MW) Country
Suntech …........ 2400 China
JA Solar …........ 2100 China
Trina Solar …..... 1900 China
Yingli …......... 1700 China
Motech Solar …..... 1500 Taiwan
Gintech …........ 1500 Taiwan
Canadian Solar …..... 1300 China
Neo Solar Power ….. 1300 Taiwan
Hanwha Solar One ….. 1100 Korea
JinkoSolar …..... 1100 China

yrs,
rubato

Posted: **Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:50 am**

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/03/19/ ... -saturday/

Go us!

Californian solar output met 59% of demand at one point on Saturday

On Saturday afternoon, utility-scale solar output on California’s grid peaked at 10,745 MW – its highest level since last summer. More importantly, California is wringing greater flexibility out of its imports, meaning more renewables with less curtailment. ... "

Those two figures only included solar connected to the transmission grid, leaving out behind-the-meter consumption. Based on previous estimates, rooftop and other smaller solar installations connected to the grid probably produced around 50% more energy, meaning total output may have been around 16 GW

yrs,
rubato

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Photovoltaic continues to get less expensive.

Photovoltaic continues to get less expensive.

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