Coronavirus

[BoSoxGal]

How’s the panic in your neck of the woods?

Can’t find any hand sanitizer on the shelves here, and there is a definite shortage of disinfectant cleaning wipes. I haven’t even bothered looking for masks because I have some in stock from working with a smoker client, and I know they’re not necessary for healthy people unless you’re medical staff working directly with infected.

Here’s how to make your own hand sanitizer at home:

2/3 cup 99% rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol.
1/3 cup aloe vera gel.
8-10 drops essential oil, optional (such as lavender, vanilla, peppermint, grapefruit)

Mix and store in appropriate containers.


I am planning to go pick up several packages of toilet paper today, not because I’m scared of virus but because I’m worried panic shoppers will leave me with shit in hand. (This could be a great way to convert Americans from TP to bidet wash, come to think of it.)

So far we only have 2 confirmed cases in Massachusetts but apparently many folks are being monitored due to interactions with confirmed infected - and it’s only a matter of time. I’m not all that scared for myself as my immune system has improved recently and I already navigate the public realm with a germaphobic mentality - I am, however, concerned for my clients who are all elderly and/or seriously immune compromised. One is an 80-something diabetic man with respiratory issues who likes eating out most every night and brunch on Sundays - that’s my assignment with him, I accompany him to dinner every Friday night and brunch every other Sunday. As the contagion spreads here I’m not going to be feeling too good about continuing that, out of concern for risk to him and to me to potentially carry it to other vulnerable clients. I wouldn’t normally dine out much during flu season anyway, and certainly not during a pandemic of a new, thus far incurable illness with no vaccine. I worked in the food service industry enough years to know that even in the cleanest kitchens dirty hands are everywhere touching everything and people don’t call out when sick because they can’t afford to.

Anyone else planning modifications to regular life besides more frequent hand washing? (Please wash your hands, geezers.)

[Long Run]

Panic seems to have started to play itself out here, but all the same items sold out for the time being. I can tell you that having had to fly this week, plan seats are going empty, plenty of parking at the airport, and you'd think everyone in the restrooms was scrubbing to assist in surgery. Given the hit certain sectors of the economy are taking, especially around the ports, we could see a dramatic slow down in GDP.

[MajGenl.Meade]

[BoSoxGal]

Just quoting Andy’s post here to keep the conversation in one thread - mine of course, as it’s superior.

I did a search - before the Great Hiatus there were precisely three passing references to coronavirus.

Jim Bakker should be back in jail. Who knew? Maybe Tammy Faye was a moderating influence on the asshole. To me such actions (if you didn't go to the link: in summary Jim Bakker of sex scandal and air-conditioned doghouse fame has been selling - for $125 a pop - a concoction which cures coronavirus and, while it's in there, takes care of your AIDS as well) are akin to looting during an emergency: shoot on sight. I'm not a gun guy and I'm no fan of the death penalty, but I'm willing to make exceptions.

Presidential leadership is of course lacking but we knew that. It's my belief that he gave the job to Pence for two reasons. Firstly Pence will fuck up because, well, that's what he does. Which means that Trump can say - it's not my fault, I put the second most important guy on the planet in charge, I did all I could because obviously I am much to busy twatting to get bogged down in this sort of detail. Secondly, and this is how we know that the guy is a stable genius, after Pence fucks it all up he will have the perfect excuse to replace him with Nikki Haley as VP on the November ticket.

There are things anyone can do now even if Copad-19 hasn't hit your state now. Learn to do your grocery run once a week instead of pretty much once a day as I do. Tell your pastor to knock off the 'let's all shake hands' thing and just make eye contact with and smile at each other. Use those wipes they give you at the supermarket to clean the push bar on the cart. Exercise at home rather than at the gym. Give the game or the concert a miss. Don't bother with the birthday cake someone brought in and left in the lunchroom. Reducing the transmissability of this virus by a few percent will have an enormous effect on the overall spread. In epidemiology there is a factor called R zero (written as R with a subscript zero - I do't think I can do this here) which represents the average number of people infected by one individual with the virus. If R zero is <1, then the disease will not spread. So the goal is to reduce R zero by any means necessary - isolate the infected folk is the first step, but reduce all stranger interactions. Most of it is common sense.

[BoSoxGal]

Here’s some unsettling news:

As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP

[ex-khobar Andy]

BTW - that's interesting. When BSG copied-and-pasted my post, the links did not copy. I'm pretty sure they used to in the olden days.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Trump yesterday was telling us that you could go to work with coronavirus - and then of course he denied that he had said it.

In that context it's interesting that he had a planned visit to CDC which was called off when there was suspected to be a CDC employee who had contracted the virus.

You'll be pleased to hear that this was a false alarm, Trump can go to CDC and thankfully the world will be now be a safer place. [/s] for those who need it.

From the Guardian:

Stephanie Grisham came back during flight to say the CDC visit is back on. There will “probably be a tour” she said when asked what would be on the itinerary.

Explaining the on-off nature of the trip she: “What the president said is true.” [Based on his statements at the White House prior to his departure this morning.]

A CDC member of staff was suspected to have contracted coronavirus and they did not think they would get the test results in time before president’s trip so “out of an abundance of caution”, she said, it was postponed for the safety of everyone involved and to allow the CDC to prevent any further spread.

“Thankfully she’s negative, the person,” tested negative.

Itinerary is now to visit Nashville and then go to Atlanta.

CDC is one of the few places in the world with a Biosafety Level 4 facility. Maybe they could give Trump a tour and mislay the key.

[BoSoxGal]

BTW - that's interesting. When BSG copied-and-pasted my post, the links did not copy. I'm pretty sure they used to in the olden days.

Your thread wasn’t up when I posted this one - a true case of cross-posting!

Only thing I can think about the links is that I did a manual copy/paste instead of the quote function because I didn’t think about how to use the quote function from one thread to another.

Here we go:

I did a search - before the Great Hiatus there were precisely three passing references to coronavirus.

Jim Bakker should be back in jail. Who knew? Maybe Tammy Faye was a moderating influence on the asshole. To me such actions (if you didn't go to the link: in summary Jim Bakker of sex scandal and air-conditioned doghouse fame has been selling - for $125 a pop - a concoction which cures coronavirus and, while it's in there, takes care of your AIDS as well) are akin to looting during an emergency: shoot on sight. I'm not a gun guy and I'm no fan of the death penalty, but I'm willing to make exceptions.

Presidential leadership is of course lacking but we knew that. It's my belief that he gave the job to Pence for two reasons. Firstly Pence will fuck up because, well, that's what he does. Which means that Trump can say - it's not my fault, I put the second most important guy on the planet in charge, I did all I could because obviously I am much to busy twatting to get bogged down in this sort of detail. Secondly, and this is how we know that the guy is a stable genius, after Pence fucks it all up he will have the perfect excuse to replace him with Nikki Haley as VP on the November ticket.

There are things anyone can do now even if Copad-19 hasn't hit your state now. Learn to do your grocery run once a week instead of pretty much once a day as I do. Tell your pastor to knock off the 'let's all shake hands' thing and just make eye contact with and smile at each other. Use those wipes they give you at the supermarket to clean the push bar on the cart. Exercise at home rather than at the gym. Give the game or the concert a miss. Don't bother with the birthday cake someone brought in and left in the lunchroom. Reducing the transmissability of this virus by a few percent will have an enormous effect on the overall spread. In epidemiology there is a factor called R zero (written as R with a subscript zero - I do't think I can do this here) which represents the average number of people infected by one individual with the virus. If R zero is <1, then the disease will not spread. So the goal is to reduce R zero by any means necessary - isolate the infected folk is the first step, but reduce all stranger interactions. Most of it is common sense.

[Scooter]

[BoSoxGal]

[Econoline]

[Lord Jim]

It's been all over the national news so you're probably aware that we here in San Fran now have our own Tokyo-style Voyage Of The Damned cruise ship:



(This picture of the Golden Gate Bridge right next to the floating petri dish has been shown over and over...The SF Convention and Visitors Bureau must be thrilled... )

[Scooter]

Hopefully they learn from the Tokyo experience that keeping them on the ship is probably the worst solution; better to find some self-contained location on land (e.g. a military base) where everyone can be isolated for the requisite period to avoid having the virus spread like wildfire through the recycled air of a cruise ship.

[Guinevere]

We were in the process of booking an Alaska cruise this summer, as I am going to be in Seattle for a late July wedding, and it seemed like the right choice.

We decided today to tell the travel agent “nyet.” The pictures of that very voyage of the damned and the statement that there will be no stateside quarantine locked up the decision for me.

Jim, glad you’re up and kicking. Stay well!

[Long Run]

better to find some self-contained location on land

[rubato]

It is a little early to make predictions about a pandemic. The rate of new infections in Hubei has flattened or gone down in recent days. It remains to be seen which trend will obtain in the future.

Zhang Boli said almost all regions outside Hubei had managed to halt new infections by the end of last month, according to an interview with the official People's Daily.

He estimated other cities in Hubei will hit such a target by mid-March, based on data on how the outbreak has evolved, but did not give details.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... 082018_cna

It's hard to tell what the truth is with news from China since they lie and dissemble reflexively, like the GOP. But we will see in the coming weeks if the methods of discouraging transmission we are using are effective.

There was a story, not confirmed, that the virus jumped from pangolins to humans due to the black market for "Chinese Medicine". I try not to think they deserve it but so far fail. Who does not like pangolins?
They're as cute as an armadillo crossed with an anteater can be!

Economically, I think we are in for it. It's just a matter of how bad the beating is going to be. Certainly a global recession but as the pandemic continues it will be deeper and longer. If control methods start working in the next 1-2 months we might escape the worst of it. But at minimum we are in for a short and sharp recession which will drive states and the fed into deficits. It's gonna be a ride.

yrs,
rubato

[BoSoxGal]

Two reasons not to rely on date from China: first it’s a dictatorship that lies, and second, because it’s a dictatorship, they’ve been much more efficient at forcing citizens to quarantine than we will be here. There are already numerous reports of folks ordered to self quarantine who have broken quarantine to attend public gatherings, most infamously an individual employed at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. Western countries will struggle to control the spread as effectively as was done in China.

[rubato]

I couldn't resist a BABY Pangolin.

yrs,
rubato

[rubato]

"... Western countries will struggle to control the spread as effectively as was done in China.

You gotta hand it to them; the one child policy was tough, but it worked. Iran, on the other hand, it's spreading like a Cal. or Aus wildfire.

yrs,
rubato

[TPFKA@W]