Coronavirus

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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

Long Run wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:46 pm
Have to give credit to our governor for getting out front on this before it could get a foothold. We're at about 1200 cases in a state of 3.3 million, and under 30 deaths (all with underlying medical conditions). The stay at home order has widely been observed, and has obviously played the key part in limiting the spread (yes, there are plenty of examples of non-observance but they only highlight the general honoring of the order). Current forecast is cresting in a couple of weeks, so we likely will not hit 3,000 cases by then, and may enter summer with fewer than 5,000. Such results make the financial losses, devastating in many situations, easier to understand and accept.
This kind of real "good news", and the similar stories coming from the results in California, (the curve has been bent sufficiently in this state that Newsome has been able to lend 500 ventilators to New York) and other places where relatively early shelter-in-place and social distance orders were put in place, (and have been largely observed) and show a genunely hopeful path to follow, never make it into DTD' s phony "good news" reports...

The reason for this is simple; DTD doesn't really care about real "good news"; he just wants to tout a shamelessly fake narrative about how Trump is some sort of highly competent visionary (hence his relentless emphasis on Il Boobce's hydroxychloroquine obsession) and there's no way to credit Trump with the success of the approach that has been actually proven to save lives...

The credit for that belongs with state and local leaders who led the way on it, and the citizens of those states who have taken seriously...

In fact The Moron-In-Chief had to be dragged kicking and screaming to embrace the lockdown approach and he clearly has a strong impulse to end it way sooner than could be medically justified...(which would of course just bring on a nearly immediate second wave, placing even more blood on his hands)
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Econoline
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Econoline »

rubato wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:48 pm
ex-khobar Andy wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:57 pm
I don't think that Kushner is as smart as Goebbels. Goebbels was deliberately lying to advance some purpose. Kushner and his FIL both believe that they alone have the truth and that they are the sharpest minds on the planet.

Like the Enron boys and Elizabeth Holmes. Proving that stupid people are the least likely to know they are stupid.
"The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is you don’t know you’re a member of the Dunning-Kruger club."
— David Dunning
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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

Burning Petard
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Burning Petard »

Sounds like the Senator exercised good judgement to me. There was no need for 'inside' information to see this coming, even early January. Did he buy stock in any companies making toilet paper? I did not see that coming. Now, if only our POTUS would demonstrate the possible results of ignoring the mask-and-gloves and social distance advice.

snailgate.

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

Interesting tool:

https://ioeprogram.com/will-you-die-fro ... ronavirus/

From the above link is a link to this article:
COVID-19: on average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide
Actual number of infections may already have reached several tens of millions

The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests. Dr Christian Bommer and Professor Sebastian Vollmer from Göttingen University have used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases to test the quality of official case records. Their data shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and the true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.

In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

Sebastian Vollmer, Professor of Development Economics at the University of Göttingen, says, “These results mean that governments and policy-makers need to exercise extreme caution when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes. Such extreme differences in the amount and quality of testing carried out in different countries mean that official case records are largely uninformative and do not provide helpful information.” Christian Bommer adds: “Major improvements in the ability of countries to detect new infections and contain the virus are urgently needed.”
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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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Gob
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gob »

I wonder if Darren has weighed himself recently?
Being overweight is a major risk factor for people infected with the novel coronavirus, France's chief epidemiologist said on Wednesday.

Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the government on the epidemic, said up to 25 percent of French people are seriously at risk from the virus because of age, pre-existing conditions or obesity.

He added that Americans are particularly at risk because of rising levels of obesity in the US, with currently 42.4 percent of the adult population being severely overweight.

'This virus is terrible. It can hit young people, in particular obese young people. Those who are overweight really need to be careful,' Delfraissy told franceinfo radio.

'That is why we're worried about our friends in America, where the problem of obesity is well-known and where they will probably have the most problems because of obesity.'

Experts suggest that obesity may put the US at risk of of a pandemic similar to that seen in 1918 with the Spanish flu.

According to the CDC, 42.4 percent of the US adult population is obese and 18.5 percent of American children are.

Obesity is known as a risk factor for several chronic health conditions including type 2 diabetes, strokes, heart attack and even certain types of cancer.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... ogist.html
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Gob
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gob »

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“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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RayThom
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Coronavirus

Post by RayThom »

Gob wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:54 am
I wonder if Darren has weighed himself recently?
That's an excellent question.

IIRC, in the past Darren had mentioned that he was tipping the scales at almost 295 pounds on a 5'5" frame.

He has a lot to be worried about if he's still that obese.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Perhaps he could sit on the curve?
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

And let's be sure to paint the curve a bright safety yellow...*


*(That reminds me...while there's a lot of posting going on, it seems like it's been a while since Sue's been around...I hope everything is well with our resident Bolshie...)
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Sue U
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sue U »

Thanks for the thought, Jim; I've looked in a few times but haven't really had time to participate. We are now 4 weeks into stay-at-home mode since the schools were closed here and it has been a challenge, what with kids and spousal unit being confined to the house and me trying to maintain my law practice from the dining room table. The firm where I sublet office space has furloughed most of its employees and shut down the office, so I have no staff support. I am allowed to go in twice a week to pick up mail. My mom lives in a "senior living" complex across the street from my office but no visitors have been permitted for several weeks; they have a couple of COVID-19 cases in the skilled nursing facility there and everyone is freaked.

My immediate community had our first COVID-19 death this week; he was the owner of several local grocery stores and my son's employer, a member of my mom's synagogue and an active member in our JDRF chapter (he was the honoree at the annual gala a couple of years ago). He got sick two weeks ago and died Tuesday. Ordinarily there would be a funeral tomorrow and you could expect the entire community to turn out, but obviously that's not gonna happen now.

Mitten drinnen it's Passover and for the first time in, well, ever I had to prepare a seder in my home, rather than make the traditional pilgrimage to one of my brothers' homes. We celebrated together by way of Zoom, which was not ideal but nevertheless kinda fun in a weird way.

This virus is no joke and I hope everyone is taking the mitigation efforts seriously. Hoping you all stay safe and healthy and wishing you the best for Easter and beyond.
GAH!

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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

Glad to see you checking in Sue...

Yeah, the situation can create a little excessive "family time"... 8-)

But as you say, the mitigation protocols are absolutely necessary and evidence abounds that they are saving lives, and that's what really counts...

The key now is for people to realize that this no time to let up...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Urk! Pres. Ramaphosa just extended our lockdown for two more weeks to April 30. Margaretta and I are in serious wine shortage and April 17th was going to be an important day - not now. They banned tobacco sales three weeks ago as well and some people (not us, thank you very much) are going nuts.

A day or two back, Generalissimo Bheki "The Hat" Cwele suggested the government should ban kissing. This caused an immediate reaction amongst comrades such as Minister of Transport, Fikile Mbalula who were looking forward to their daily arslikan of former President Zuma.
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

Burning Petard
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Burning Petard »

In the grocery store today, the produce section looked just about normal. But the canned fruit section was really cleaned out. The liquid detergent for hand-washing dishes was almost all gone, but lots of other cleaners and the aisle was blocked with three pallets of TP. And eggs are rationed. Can't figure that one out. Still very little chicken in the meat section, but lots of turkey, beef, pork. 'Bout half the customers I saw were wearing mask and gloves.

snailgate.

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

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We might be heading for supply chain issues in coming weeks:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... s-fall-ill

Sadly at the same time tens of thousands of pounds of produce normally distributed to schools, theme parks, convention centers, restaurants and other such shuttered businesses are going to rot in the fields. Some is being donated to food pantries but they can’t take it all.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lord Jim »

If the POS-I-C is really stupid and reckless enough to actually overrule his science advisers and make good on his threat to issue some version of an "order" at the end of April that says, "Okay folks, it's all over; everybody back to work, hit the restaurants, and oh yeah PLAY BALL!" The majority of Americans will be unaffected...(at least in the short term)

The states that have responsible governors, Democrats and Republicans (And yes, there are some responsible Republican governors; Mark Dewine of Ohio, Larry Hogan of Maryland and and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts come immediately to mind, I'm sure there are others) will simply ignore the "order". Il Boobce has absolutely no authority to over rule state stay-at-home and social distance orders.

And Trump also has asolutely no authority to compel private businesses to follow his "order".. (And believe me, if states like California and New York refuse to allow stadiums or arenas to be filled, no major league sports organizations or concert promoters are going to be jumping back in...)

But unfortunately there will be some who will actually listen to the moron. If you are unfortunate enough to live in a state run by a Trumpist idiot who cares more about pleasing The Dear Leader than he or she does about saving the lives of the people they swore an oath to protect, (or if you are stupid enough to even at this point, despite the overwhelming evidence that he knows fuck-all about what he's doing to follow what he says yourself) you (and many innocent people) are going to be SOL..

And this will, overtime, endanger the rest of us as those living in the responsibly run states will be endangered by those traveling from the ones run by Trumpist fools. (It might become necessary for states like California to impose mandatory 14 day quarantines on anyone coming in from those states)

To be honest I think there's good reason to hope (see, Darren, I can be hopeful!) that at the end of the day, Trump will not choose to do this. His own "best scenario" death toll models are based on keeping the full shutdown and social distancing policies going at least through the end of May, and I believe that at the end of the day (just as he did when he extended his guidelines till the end of April) he will grudgingly sign off on an extension at least till May 31st.

After that, bent curves and widespread testing permitting, maybe some polices can be safely and gradually relaxed in some situations, at least on a trial basis...

But of course with this mercurial buffoon, one can never be certain of anything...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Burning Petard »

I have family in Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas. The evidence about the POS-i-c (I really like that) is underwhelming If it comes from the Washington Post, NY Times, CNN, MSNBC ABC or other fake news sources, which now includes the Wall Street Journal. I think their health treatment resources will be flooded just about the same time their little tin god in DC declares victory in his war with the invisible.

snailgate

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