Coronavirus

[Econoline]

(d) All of the above.

[Bicycle Bill]

God damn... Trump was right!!!



-"BB"-

[Gob]

Police reinforcements have been sent to maintain a coronavirus quarantine on a tower block in the German city of Göttingen after violence on Saturday.

Seven-hundred people were placed in quarantine, but about 200 who attempted to get out clashed with police.

Residents attacked police with fireworks, bottles and metal bars, officials said.

The quarantine was introduced on Thursday after two residents tested positive.

By Friday, 120 people were found to be infected. Most residents have been complying with the quarantine.

Eight police officers were injured in Saturday's violence and a suspect was detained, but released after questioning.

Anyone testing negative has to have a further test. If that is negative, they will be allowed to leave the 18-floor block, but under certain conditions, such as wearing a mask.

Local officials cited communication problems, with many of the residents not understanding the need for a second test.

Translators have been used and information in German and Romanian is now being texted to those who need it, German media report.

Göttingen officials say there is overcrowding among the block's poor residents: the flats are only 19 to 39 sq m (205 to 420 sq ft) in size and some families have four children.

Hotspots push up German R number

In another development, Germany's 'R' number has risen to 2.88 - the number of people who someone with Covid-19 could infect. A number below one is seen as necessary to contain the spread of the disease.

The Robert Koch Institute issued the data based on a four-day average. The seven-day average came up with a lower figure of 2.03.

The institute cited isolated outbreaks, such as the Tönnies meat processing plant in Gütersloh district, North Rhine-Westphalia, for the rise.

Germany is generally considered to have done a good job containing the virus, thanks to widespread testing. The latest confirmed figures show 189,949 people testing positive, and 8,889 deaths - significantly lower than similar sized European neighbours.

The localised outbreaks - such as the Göttingen apartments and Tönnies - are seen as controllable and have been attributed to poor living and working conditions.

The Gütersloh area has risen above 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days, an upper limit set by national and regional authorities as a measure to contain the virus.

[RayThom]

Strike Three... You're Out!

[Scooter]

[Scooter]

A less cluttered graph that makes the same point:

[Gob]

US government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted coronavirus – 10 times more than official counts, as cases are now rising in more than half of states and a new warning came of the risk of “apocalyptic” infection in major cities.

The new estimated numbers from the federal agency the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said on Thursday.

The news came as Texas, one of the most populous US states, has seen a surge in Covid-19 cases and the governor on Thursday announced that he would have to pause the next phases in what has been a rapid reopening of business. Cases are now rising in 27 US states, up from 22 earlier this week.

The CDC’s new estimate that for every diagnosis of coronavirus in the US it is likely that 10 more people are or have been infected is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.

The officials, speaking to a small group of reporters on Wednesday night, said the estimate was based on the number of known cases, currently nearing 2.4m in the US, multiplied by the average rate of antibodies seen from the serology tests, about an average of 10 to one.

“If you multiply the cases by that ratio, that’s where you get that 20 million figure,” said one official.

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of US deaths from the disease is lower than thought. More than 122,000 Americans have died from the disease since the pandemic erupted earlier this year.

The estimate comes as government officials note that many new cases are showing up in young people who do not exhibit symptoms and may not know they have it.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -count-cdc

[Scooter]

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of US deaths from the disease is lower than thought.

This statement keeps getting trotted out as if it means anything. Just because 90% of the infected are going undiagnosed does not magically mean that fewer people are dying. All it means is that 90% of the infected are going about their lives perhaps unwittingly infecting others, some of whom will die.

[MajGenl.Meade]

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of US deaths from the disease is lower than thought.

This statement keeps getting trotted out as if it means anything. Just because 90% of the infected are going undiagnosed does not magically mean that fewer people are dying. All it means is that 90% of the infected are going about their lives perhaps unwittingly infecting others, some of whom will die.

Not so, Twinkletoes. You change "percentage" to "fewer" as if those terms describe the same thing. The factoid is, the greater the number of people who have been infected and have recovered or are asymptomatic, the number of actual deaths becomes a smaller percentage of those who have been infected.

At least, that's true if the number infected and recovered exceeds the number of dead. Both stats will increase but it depends which increases the faster. Obviously if we have three dead for every two recoveries, the percentage of dead goes up. But that's not what's happening according to the estimate given here.

Your argument says that if one person died of Covid and we never ever found anyone else who had been infected (even though they had been), the morbidity for Covid must equal 100% - which is patently false.

I think.
Allegedly.

[Crackpot]

Michigan doubled its new cases yesterday after staying flat fo quite some time. Here’s hoping it was an anomaly

[ex-khobar Andy]

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of US deaths from the disease is lower than thought.

It's a sloppy sentence - there's a reason it's called the Grauniad.

At face value, which is what I think Scooter is partially getting at, it's a nonsense sentence. The percentage of US deaths from the disease is whatever it is: 122,000 over the three months is probably about 17.5 % of the total deaths in the US during that time and that has not changed. In fact if there are more people with CoV than previously thought then it's possible that there are more deaths than presumed due to the virus and so the percentage is actually higher than thought.

I think what the author was trying to say is that if the virus is more prevalent than thought (and I have not read the research and the problem of a Bayesian bias to the data is real) and if there are no - or very few - CoV deaths which are wrongly misattributed to other causes, then yes, CoV is less lethal than previously thought. There is no doubt that improved treatment has played a major - and often unsung - role in the reduction of mortality.

I'm watching Mike Pence on CNN with his latest CoV task force update. He wants us to pray. I've no objection to prayer if it helps you but I don't want to hear it from the guy supposedly in charge.

[RayThom]

Pray the virus away?

The evangelicals love that decisive kind of talk.

[Long Run]

The increase in confirmed cases can mean an actual increase in cases, and/or it could mean that more cases are being confirmed due to better tracing and more widespread testing. This graph would suggest it is more the latter.



And this:

[Scooter]

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of US deaths from the disease is lower than thought.

It's a sloppy sentence - there's a reason it's called the Grauniad.

At face value, which is what I think Scooter is partially getting at, it's a nonsense sentence.

I probably didn't express myself very well either. What I should have said, is that knowing that about 90% of people are going undiagnosed doesn't really change the nature of the epidemic, nor does it alter the course of disease for anyone, certainly not for the better.

On a macro level, the experts have always known intuitively that there are probably about ten times as many people wandering around infected has have been diagnosed. That is pretty standard for respiratory infections, and if that is now being confirmed by antibody testing or by other means, it really doesn't tell us anything that wasn't already suspected. Nor does it do anything to lessen the impact on our health care systems, because the number of people who need care remains what it is, no matter how many undiagnosed, asymptomatic people there may be in the background.

On an individual level, it makes not one whit of difference to the clinical outcome of those who are infected, just because the denominator is being made ten times larger by the undiagnosed. Those who have had no cause to be diagnosed because they remain asymptomatic do not suddenly find themselves at risk of illness or death. And those who are ill cannot draw any comfort from a mortality rate that is "really" one tenth of what we thought it was, because for them the risk of death remains as high as it has always been for those who are symptomatic.

[Scooter]

The increase in confirmed cases can mean an actual increase in cases, and/or it could mean that more cases are being confirmed due to better tracing and more widespread testing. This graph would suggest it is more the latter.

Except that national trend in hospitalization and deaths is being tempered by the huge drops that have occurred in New York, New Jersey and other original hot spots, while hospital admissions and ICU usage are reaching critical levels in newly emerging hotspots in Texas, Arizona, Florida, etc.

[Long Run]

Fair point. Also, one other possible reason between the disparity between the growing number of verified cases in the U.S., but continuing decline in deaths and hospitalizations (other than increased testing) is that more and more younger people are being found with the virus; statistically this age group has a much lower percentage of negative health effects from the virus. Conversely, there have been improvements in protecting the most vulnerable populations, so a big drop in confirmed cases in this group will cause a significant drop in hospitalizations and deaths.

[Scooter]

And just to counter the notion that increased testing necessarily equates to an increase in cases detected, in Ontario we keep setting new records in tests conducted, and the number of new cases is the lowest it has been since late March.

[Scooter]

And spikes like this are clearly about way more than just increased testing.

[Bicycle Bill]

-"BB"-

[Big RR]

And just to counter the notion that increased testing necessarily equates to an increase in cases detected, in Ontario we keep setting new records in tests conducted, and the number of new cases is the lowest it has been since late March.

Of course, I would venture to speculate that Ontario's testing in the first quarter of this year was much more wdespread than in the US. The reason I think this "notion" may apply in the US is because we had very limited testing in the US during that time, and, hence, probably a good number of undiagnosed cases; the undiagnosed cases in Ontario were much less. Time will tell.