Coronavirus

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

What channels do you watch? CNN and MSNBC remarked on that fact exhaustively for at least one whole day.

Edited to add: we’ve just had 50,000 deaths in less than a month and the Thanksgiving infections are still rising exponentially.

Winter is coming.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Econoline
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Econoline »

I don't have a TV, and I did encounter the information online (obviously) but it wasn't featured particularly prominently, and when I mentioned it to a couple of people I know they both seemed surprised.
People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

Well at least those two networks discussed it widely and I recall seeing mentions in at least a few online news articles. I was surprised by the hardly noticed/mentioned assertion because my experience was very different.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bicycle Bill »

BoSoxGal wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:56 pm
Well at least those two networks discussed it widely and I recall seeing mentions in at least a few online news articles. I was surprised by the hardly noticed/mentioned assertion because my experience was very different.
I'm of the opinion that people may have seen it but didn't accept it/disregarded it because they believe there were vastly more people killed in WWII than there actually were... (there were, of course, but they weren't all Americans)

In fact, if today you were to ask the average person who is old enough to have lived through 9/11 how many people died as a result of those attacks — 2996, BTW, which includes the crews and passengers on the four planes (including the hijackers) as well as the people who died on the ground in the WTC and the Pentagon — I'm guessing that more than half of those you questioned would give you a number of 5000 or more.

It's all in how a person is willing to perceive something.  I give you Trump and his minions vis-à-vis the recent election as a shining example.
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Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bicycle Bill »

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-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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Gob
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gob »

France's Emmanuel Macron has tested positive for Covid-19, forcing several European leaders to self-isolate after coming into contact with him.

The 42-year-old president was tested after developing symptoms and will now self-isolate for seven days, the Elysée Palace said in a statement.

He "is still in charge" of running the country and will work remotely.

EU chief Charles Michel and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez are among the leaders having to self-isolate.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55347406
His Mrs must be crapping herself....
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gob »

Based on your profile, there are between 18,074,125 and 20,728,685 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vacinne across the UK.

📅 Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 23/04/2021 and 11/05/2021.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/v ... 4aZyiIZPRY
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Crackpot
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Crackpot »

There aren’t even 23 months in a year! ;)
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine
(or:  One Chart is Worth a Hundred Thousand Words)


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Data from Deutsche Bank AG and the FDA, via John Authers' Bloomberg Opinion column.  I had heard that the vaccine was effective, but this is the first time I've seen the curve.  Amazing!

Addendum: a detailed breakdown of the Pfizer data —

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Note that for the age group over 75, the efficacy is at best uncertain, with an indeterminate 95% confidence interval that the results would be repeatable.  This arises because so few persons were enrolled in this age group (about 800 randomized to BNT and to placebo).  No coronavirus cases arose in the BNT group while 5 did in the placebo controls, but with that small a database it's not possible to prove efficacy.  There is a good discussion at the link above, including the comments there.

So bite me, anti-vaxxers!!
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Sue U
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sue U »

Crackpot wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:38 pm
There aren’t even 23 months in a year! ;)
Have you met 2020?
GAH!

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

:funee:
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Thanks BB - I had not seen that graph. One picture is worth 1000 words.

Given the number of participants in each group is approximately 20,000 the 0.02 incidence rate in the placebo population is about 400 in around 3 months. And although I have heard that there is evidence that one dose gives some level of protection, I'd say this is pretty clearcut. The second dose is typically 3 weeks after the first dose. (I don't know if the trial followed this exactly or used some window of time.) It looks to me as if the two lines started to diverge around day 10 from the initial dose and on day 20 - i.e., presumably before most of the participants got their second jab - there was already something like 40% protection.

That's all good news.

Per the Johns Hopkins site there are 17.2 million cases so far in the US. Given a US population of 330 million, that's an incidence rate of 0.052 in 9 months of the pandemic so far. That number comports very well with the 0.02 incidence in the placebo group in 3 months which works out at 0.06 in 9 months. The difference (0.008) may be insignificant (I haven't done the calculation) or may just reflect the fact that the placebo group were regularly tested and that in fact some small portion of the population are positive but asymptomatic and just don't know it.

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Econoline
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Econoline »

"Statistics tip" (from xkcd, of course):

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People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
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Darren
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Darren »

FWIW: the COVID vaccine relies on mRNA to "adjust" the body's immune defense. In autoimmune diseases the B & T cells attack the body instead of a bacterium or virus.

If you have a family history of autoimmune diseases like MS, RA, Lupus, Sjrogens, etc. the vaccine may alter your life and not in a good way.

Be leery of the vaccine if you've been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues.

What happens later will be you paying the piper.
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

SHUT THE FUCK UP WITH THAT ANTI VACCINE GARBAGE!!
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

BSG put it more succinctly than I could, Darren.

First learn to spell before you post bullshit. It's Sjogren's syndrome.

Secondly "if you've been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues" covers, at a rough guess, 99.999999% of us. There may be a couple of bubble boys around who have not been exposed to environmental toxins.

I'm speculating that more than a few of those people in the vaccine group have been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues.

Darren
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Darren »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:44 pm
BSG put it more succinctly than I could, Darren.

First learn to spell before you post bullshit. It's Sjogren's syndrome.

Secondly "if you've been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues" covers, at a rough guess, 99.999999% of us. There may be a couple of bubble boys around who have not been exposed to environmental toxins.

I'm speculating that more than a few of those people in the vaccine group have been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues.
The biologics used in treating autoimmune diseases damper the out of control B & T cells.

The mRNA in the COVID vaccine has the opposite effect.

For fun look up the anaerobic bacteria Akkermansia muciniphila and its effect on the goblet cells that line the small and large intestine. What does that have to do with the vaccine?

Nothing except for the possibility of a similar consequence when the immune system goes haywire.

FWIW antibiotics aren't friendly to Akkermansia muciniphila meaning a lack of the bacteria sets you up for an autoimmune disease. Now add a vaccine designed to "activate" the immune system.

Of course lots of correlations aren't sure fire proof. It does make me wonder about the effect of the gut biome on health.

Keep in mind the COVID vaccine is the first of its kind for large scale human use.

AFAIK only a rabies vaccine with mRNA was scheduled to begin trials which haven't happened.
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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Gob
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gob »

News snippets
"We cannot continue with Christmas as planned," Boris Johnson says.

People should not travel into a tier four area, though support bubbles remain unaffected as do the exemptions for separated parents and their children.

For those in tiers one, two and three, rules allowing up to three households to meet will now be limited to Christmas Day only.

Christmas bubbles for those in tiers one to three will not be able include anyone in tier four.

In tier four, people should not mix with anyone outside their own household, apart from support bubbles.

London, the South East and East of England will enter a new tier four level of restrictions from tomorrow morning, the prime minister says.

These will be broadly equivalent to national restrictions which were introduced in England in November, Boris Johnson says.

Residents in those areas must stay at home, with limited exemptions. Non-essential retails and indoors gyms must close.

People should work from home when they can, and should not enter or leave tier four areas. Communal worship may continue.

The restrictions will last for two weeks and will be reviewed on 30 December.

Summary:

Relaxation of Christmas Covid rules scrapped for much of south-east England

The PM leads a Covid update amid a rise in Covid-19 cases in south-east England

Boris Johnson announces tier four restrictions for London and the South East

PM says spread in cases 'being driven by the new variant of the virus'

Hospitals in Kent are postponing non-urgent procedures as cases in the county rise beyond figures seen in the spring

Northern Ireland and Wales have both announced post-Christmas lockdowns

The Scottish government has said "all options" remain on the table ahead of a review on Tuesday

Nicola Sturgeon to hold press conference at 1730 GMT

A second vaccine is being rolled out in the US after regulators approved a jab developed by Moderna

Italy has ordered a nationwide lockdown over much of the Christmas and New Year period
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BoSoxGal »

Winter is Coming
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Scooter
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Scooter »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:44 pm
Secondly "if you've been exposed to environmental toxins or have a history of antibiotic usage and/or have gastrointestinal issues" covers, at a rough guess, 99.999999% of us.
Yeah, it's almost as if Darren doesn't want to see anyone get vaccinated, because if what he derided as a "mediademic" a few months ago were now to continue unabated, he could find some way to blame the incoming administration for not doing enough to combat it.
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