Iran is screwed.

[Scooter]

And in Italy they are stacking the bodies of the dead in churches because they are having trouble finding space and manpower to bury them, your point?

[Scooter]

It's fun watching Darren go along the same unhinged trajectory as wes did, as the (in)actions of his messiah become more and more indefensible.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Interesting (but of no real significance) of "closed" cases, in Iran only 15% resulted in deaths. In the USA, of closed cases, over 50% ended in death.

It's of no real significance because of the USA currently infected, some 7000+ are minor and only 12 are of concern. Clearly, once the current load are "closed" in the USA, the 50% shrinks rapidly

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Darren]

And in Italy they are stacking the bodies of the dead in churches because they are having trouble finding space and manpower to bury them, your point?

My point is anything that hampers Iran's financing of terrorism and adds impetus to the Green Revolution in that country is a good thing. Anything that helps us get our troops out of Dodge, the Middle East, is a good thing.

Limiting Iran's ability to supply money to provide a monthly income to families of martyrs is a good thing. Crimping the ability of Iran to supply rockets to Hamas is a good thing.

The $700 billion military budget needs to be cut severely. That money would be better spent on infrastructure restoration here.

[Sue U]

My point is anything that hampers Iran's financing of terrorism and adds impetus to the Green Revolution in that country is a good thing.

Iran's "financing of terrorism" is not even spit in the ocean compared to the terrorism financed by the Saudis and other Arab states, and it is directed almost exclusively at Israel rather than "the West" at large. And the "Green Revolution" (not actually even close to a revolution) has been dead for years; Ahmadinejad is long gone and the last round of protests a couple of years ago were certainly not aimed at toppling the government. You know what really united the Iranian people? The U.S. assassination of Qassem Soleimani.

Anything that helps us get our troops out of Dodge, the Middle East, is a good thing.

Not going to disagree with you there, but neither coronavirus nor collapsing oil prices will do that.

Limiting Iran's ability to supply money to provide a monthly income to families of martyrs is a good thing. Crimping the ability of Iran to supply rockets to Hamas is a good thing.

It's not clear that Iran has actually ever paid any "martyr's" family anything, and if I were being purely cynical, I'd say that if Iran can get Sunnis to kill themselves and Israelis at the same time, they're certainly getting a twofer. Iran's supply of rockets to Gaza probably isn't going to Hamas but to Palestinian Islamic Jihad. But even if it were, Iranian support of Hamas (a Sunni organization) is fickle at best, and in any event is targeted toward the Palestinian conflict with Israel and not to random acts of terror abroad.

The $700 billion military budget needs to be cut severely. That money would be better spent on infrastructure restoration here.

Not going to disagree with you on this, either, but Iran is not actually the cause of increases in US military spending.

[Econoline]

My prediction: sooner or later, Iran will ally with Russia against Saudi Arabia & the U.S.

I cannot think of any way that that will be *GOOD* for the U.S.

[Darren]

My prediction: sooner or later, Iran will ally with Russia against Saudi Arabia & the U.S.

I cannot think of any way that that will be *GOOD* for the U.S.

I doubt that. The reason being Russia has long prized its sole Mediterranean port facilities in Tartus, Syria. Syria has been a client state of Russia going way back. Iran's meddling in Syria threatened al-Assad and his control of Syria. If he was ousted there was no guarantee Russia would still have access to that port.

Warships need special permission to enter ports unless it's covered by a treaty. A captain can't pull into one on a whim. The destroyer I was on was granted permission to dock in Rijeka, Yugoslavia (now Croatia) which was a very unusual happening. That was the first time since WWII that a US warship did that.

Russia has no love for Iran. If they did they wouldn't be beggaring them now. The oil price war is a chance to stop Iran's foreign adventures.

[Sue U]

The reason being Russia has long prized its sole Mediterranean port facilities in Tartus, Syria. Syria has been a client state of Russia going way back. Iran's meddling in Syria threatened al-Assad and his control of Syria. If he was ousted there was no guarantee Russia would still have access to that port.

Honestly, Darren, from what bunghole of ignorance do you pull these dumbass theories? If you spent half the time actually learning about the politics and history of the Middle East as you do spouting off about it, you might not embarrass yourself so much. Syria is not and has never been a "client state" of Russia (or the Soviet Union, for that matter). Moscow has never dictated the social, political or economic policies of Syria, and in fact one of the major reasons for creating the United Arab Republic in the 1950s, joining Syria and Egypt, was fear of potential pro-communist sympathies arising in the Syrian military. Syria and other Arab states (including principally Egypt and Iraq) had historically received military aid and had aligned with the Soviet Union in certain international positions, but that had more to do with their own domestic politics involving anti-colonialism and pan-Arabism -- particularly after Israel, Britain and France invaded to seize the Suez Canal in 1956.

Iran's "meddling in Syria" did not threaten Assad's control, it was exactly the opposite: Iran was the first country to which Assad turned for support when facing the uprising, and it was Iranian (and only later, Russian) support that has kept him in power. Both Syria and Iran see themselves as major regional powers, and both have aligned interests in Lebanon. Iran and Russia are allied in Syria, and while it may be an alliance of convenience, they have significant mutual interests in maintaining the Assad government rather than seeing it overthrown and replaced by Sunni Islamists backed by the Saudis and other Arab Gulf states.

The oil price collapse is not Russia's doing, it was a Saudi action taken against Russia, and if it hurts Iran in the process the Saudis couldn't be happier.

[Darren]

The oil price collapse is not Russia's doing, it was a Saudi action taken against Russia, and if it hurts Iran in the process the Saudis couldn't be happier.

I agree.

If Russia didn't mean to start a price war by walking out of an OPEC meetings after disagreeing on price quotas, are the Russian's that clueless? Seems to me not agreeing to quotas meant more oil flooding the market with a price drop,

Maybe they thought the Saudis were going to go home and forget about it? Based on the Saudi heir apparent's ruthless move against his relatives, that wouldn't have occurred to me.

Now that we have a pissing contest between Russia and the Saudis, the Iranian regime is still screwed. Do you see an upside for the Iranians with COVID-19 spreading, oil prices dropping into the basement and locusts swarming?

China stockpiled Iranian oil before the COVID-19 shit hit the fan. When their manufacturing and transportation shut down most of that oil sat in storage.

[Sue U]

The oil price collapse is not Russia's doing, it was a Saudi action taken against Russia, and if it hurts Iran in the process the Saudis couldn't be happier.

I agree.

If Russia didn't mean to start a price war by walking out of an OPEC meetings after disagreeing on price quotas, are the Russian's that clueless? Seems to me not agreeing to quotas meant more oil flooding the market with a price drop,

Maybe they thought the Saudis were going to go home and forget about it? Based on the Saudi heir apparent's ruthless move against his relatives, that wouldn't have occurred to me.

The Russians don't want to be dictated to by the Saudis and don't want to be perceived as playing second fiddle to them on oil price/supply. While oil is an important export for Russia, it is not their entire economy (like it is for the Saudis); Russia is betting the drop in prices will hurt the Saudis more in the longer run, and they're willing to wait them out, at least for now. The oil market was going to tank anyway because of the economic slowdown due to coronavirus, so it's not like they'll be losing out on a lot of revenue over the next few months.

Now that we have a pissing contest between Russia and the Saudis, the Iranian regime is still screwed. Do you see an upside for the Iranians with COVID-19 spreading, oil prices dropping into the basement and locusts swarming?

No. Quite frankly all I see is a lot more misery for the Iranian people, which is not something I would celebrate.

Speaking of which, happy Nowruz.

[Darren]

Sue U, oil and natural gas sales are 50% of Russia's income.

As far as Syria being a client state of Russia that goes back to 1971. I see Iran's current tribulations as a possible benefit to the Iranians wanting to get rid of the regime and return to a secular society.

"Russian-Syrian relations draw on a Cold War legacy, since Moscow first began to support Syria after the 1956 Suez Crisis. However, Syria did not become a true client state of the Soviet Union until 1971.The Soviet Union gained a well situated naval base in Tartus, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, to support its Fifth Eskadra—an operational naval squadron—along with intelligence-gathering facilities ashore."

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journal ... -in-Syria/

[Darren]

The screwing continues.

"Iran’s vice president for economic affairs lamented the free fall of the country’s oil revenue. Mohammad Nahavandian told Iranian state TV that oil inventory has dropped to one-eighth of where it stood in 2011.

The comments came after the global oil market was rattled by the coronavirus pandemic, which has slashed international demand for crude. The damage to Iran, the world’s fifth largest oil producer, has been particularly disruptive. The price of Iranian heavy crude fell below $14 per barrel March 31 — not good news for a government that has based its fiscal budget on the rate of $50 per barrel.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z6IJ96Sqm1"

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... uhani.html

[Scooter]

And the U.S. oil industry is now crying for production quotas to raise the price, because in the current market producers are going bankrupt.

[Darren]

Oil prices could soon turn negative as the world runs out of places to store crude, analysts warn


"Global oil storage could reach maximum capacity within weeks, energy analysts have told CNBC, as the coronavirus crisis dramatically reduces consumption and some of the world’s most powerful crude producers start to ramp up their output.

The coronavirus pandemic has meant countries have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian measures on the daily lives of billions of people. It has created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, with storage space – both onshore and offshore – quickly running out."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronav ... acity.html

[Darren]

"Last weekend, Al Jazeera reported that the total number of COVID-19 cases in Iran had surpassed 50,000, according to the country’s own figures. Three thousand had died — a pace of six deaths every hour.

Those numbers make Iran one of the hardest-hit countries in the world. ...

Despite all that, Ahmad Obali is sure those numbers are wrong. As terrible as they are, he believes that the truth is far, far worse.

“Instead of managing the cases, they’re managing the numbers,” says Obali, an émigré from Iran’s Azeri-speaking region who now lives in Wilmette."

"He knows this because he doesn’t rely on numbers reported by the government, but on his own team of stringers on the ground in Iran. They help him collect information for his news broadcasts for Günaz TV, an independent Azeri-language satellite station he runs."

"Iran’s official voter turnout for the Parliamentary elections in November was 40 percent, but Obali believes the actual number was closer to 15 to 17 percent; his sources reported no lines at the polls, even in Tehran, the capital."

"The Iranian government is taking people’s money. It has escrow accounts with hundreds of billions of dollars that it’s not willing to spend. Instead it’s using this time to put pressure on the U.S. to lift sanctions. It’s not going to help the Iranian people. It’s only going to empower the government."

http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/Apr ... us-Deaths/

[RayThom]

Interesting.

[Darren]

More interesting

"Dozens of tankers holding jet fuel and gasoline are at anchor in sea lanes around Europe's main storage hubs, unable to discharge their cargoes as onshore tanks are full to capacity following the collapse in demand linked to the coronavirus crisis.

Nearly 1 million tonnes of refined products are parked on around 30 tankers off Europe's coast, Reuters calculations found.

According to shipping data and trade sources, tankers have dropped anchor near to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub and across parts of the Mediterranean as their cargo owners struggle to find buyers or storage tanks.

While some vessels are expected to moor in ports soon, others could remain at sea for weeks because of a shortage of space left to be leased in onshore tanks, traders said.

"The region is overflowing with products," one trader said on condition of anonymity.

Traders and shipping sources said there were long delays at tanker terminals in the ARA area, lifting costs for traders chartering the vessels.

"Congestion has picked up in the past few days," a shipping source said. "(Ship chartering) deals may now be impacted."

Low water levels along the Rhine river have added to logistical pressure on ARA storage. They mean barges can only be loaded to 50% of capacity, limiting how much they can take to storage sites along the river."

https://www.marinelink.com/news/tankers ... ast-477604

[MajGenl.Meade]

Back in the good old days, I cost Exxon $50,000 in demurrage for a delay in one tanker being offloaded. I didn't send a telex (remember those?) as swiftly as it should have been sent - a couple of hours of sleep on the night shift and the company lost the loot. You'd think with their billions they'd not notice. But they did.

[Darren]

Back in the good old days, I cost Exxon $50,000 in demurrage for a delay in one tanker being offloaded. I didn't send a telex (remember those?) as swiftly as it should have been sent - a couple of hours of sleep on the night shift and the company lost the loot. You'd think with their billions they'd not notice. But they did.

Bean counters at work. Last I read it looks like the industry is running out of storage either onshore or afloat.

There's another article out about the dissension within Iran at the upper levels. I couldn't track it back to a print source.

[RayThom]

... There's another article out about the dissension within Iran at the upper levels. I couldn't track it back to a print source.

It amazes me what you can't find when it fits your agenda. Yet all of our Grifter-in-Chief's bullshit fills your posts on a minute-to-minute basis. Throw shit out there and see if it sticks. Facts be damned.

Congratulations, you're a mindless, unabashed Trumpist, through and through.

Scary.