Plan B Forum

Iran's leadership is in trouble. The upshot between the virus in all provinces and the oil price war between Russia and the Saudis may be peace in the Middle East. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

I don't know why you would think that the economic and social collapse of Iran would somehow result in "peace in the Middle East." Chaos in a country of 82 million would not be a stabilizing factor. If you're concerned about "sponsors of terrorism," the Taliban, al-Queda, ISIS, al-Nusra, al-Shabaab, Lashkar e Taiba and numerous other Salafi Islamist groups are all projects of Trump's good pals in Saudi Arabia. But it's not only Trump, and not only recently; the U.S. has had the wrong end of this stick for decades.

Iran is a known state sponsor of terrorism. With our oil independence we need to get out of the Middle East.

We've already taken action to restrict funding to Hamas. Iran getting cut off at the knees takes them out of Syria, to the Russian's delight, and may stop the rocket shipments to Hamas. It may also stop their meddling in Iraq. We need to get out of Iraq too.

Yemen's rebels that fired rockets at the Saudis will see money dry up too. Trump is on record wanting to bring troops home. A Middle East peace dividend could be better spent on infrastructure restoration which is on Trump's to do list.

Trump is on record wanting to bring troops home

Same old, same old..So was Obama. so was W, at least during campaign seasons, but no action. Trunp is ni different, other than using idiotic rhetoric to make things worse--even W usually knew when to shut up.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Iran is a known state sponsor of terrorism.

As is virtually every regime in the Middle East, Israel included.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

With our oil independence we need to get out of the Middle East.

Whatever that means. Oil is a fungible product in an international market. There is no disentangling U.S. production from the world market. The U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria is not because of oil (at least not currently -- although the origins of hostilities in Iraqi go back to a dispute over Kuwaiti oil fields and a colossal bungling of U.S diplomacy).

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Iran getting cut off at the knees takes them out of Syria, to the Russian's delight, and may stop the rocket shipments to Hamas.

If you don't know, Russia and Iran are allied in supporting the Assad regime in Syria. Hamas is in Gaza, not Syria.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

It may also stop their meddling in Iraq.

Iraq is a majority Shia country with a thousand years of cultural, political, social, religious, familial and economic ties to Iran. They have never and will never be disengaged, and no foreign power will ever force one to "stop their meddling" with the other.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

We need to get out of Iraq too.

I thought that went with "get[ting] out of the Middle East." Because that's where Iraq is.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Yemen's rebels that fired rockets at the Saudis will see money dry up too.

To the extent Yemen is a proxy war for Saudi Arabia and Iran, an economic threat to Iran caused by Saudi shenanigans in the oil market is just as likely to provoke further attacks on Saudi oil facilities. And not for nothing, but the Saudis are definitely bad guys in the Yemen civil war.

Darren wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Trump is on record wanting to bring troops home. A Middle East peace dividend could be better spent on infrastructure restoration which is on Trump's to do list.

Yeah, because blowing a trillion-dollar hole in the budget with needless tax cuts for the rich and corporations sure shows Trump's commitment to domestic development projects. Hey everybody, it's Infrastructure Week! You are a sucker if you even pretend to believe that.

What Sue said, especially the last comment.

Sue U wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:54 pm

[ but the Saudis are definitely bad guys in the Yemen civil war.

Why are the Saudis the bad guys? Are they the bag guys because they don’t want their enemy in their back yard? The Iranian government is their enemy as well as our enemy. We have been in de facto war with Iran since 1979 and they have been killing Americans for decades.

There is a good reason we do not have diplomatic relations with Iran; a nation does not have diplomatic relocations with an enemy. Any American that wants Iran to win and Saudi Arabia lose is a traitor to the US.

Correction: The word is traitor not trader.

The Village Idiot wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

Why are the Saudis the bad guys?

Might be something to do with the innumerable war crimes they have committed (cluster bombing of civilians, targeting airstrikes at hospitals and refugee camps, using white phosphorus munitions, targeting wounded and medical personnel with double tap attacks, etc., etc., etc.)

Oh yeah, and fighting on the same side as Al Qaeda and ISIS factions.

And let's not forget the killing of Kashoggi.

liberty wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

Why are the Saudis the bad guys?

With respect to the war in Yemen in particular, see Scooter's post. With respect to state-sponsored terrorism, see my first post in this thread. With respect to civil rights abuses and political atrocities,see BigRR's post as an example.

liberty wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

Are they the bag guys because they don’t want their enemy in their back yard? The Iranian government is their enemy as well as our enemy.

Have you ever actually seen a map of the Persian Gulf? Do you have any clue where Iran and Saudi Arabia are located with respect to each other?

liberty wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

We have been in de facto war with Iran since 1979 and they have been killing Americans for decades.

Do you know why there was a revolution in Iran in 1979? Do you know what Ronald Reagan was doing with Iran from the time of the revolution through his second term in office? And exactly what Americans has Iran been "killing for decades"? Or did you mean the Airbus full of Iranian civilians shot down by the U.S.S. Vincennes, because you've got it backwards as to who the murderers are?

liberty wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

There is a good reason we do not have diplomatic relations with Iran; a nation does not have diplomatic relocations with an enemy.

There is absolutely no reason Iran has to be the enemy of the United States other than certain U.S. administrations' slavering devotion to the House of Saud and the necessity of those administrations to have a convenient boogeyman.

liberty wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

Any American that wants Iran to win and Saudi Arabia lose is a trader to the US.

Why in the wide world of sports should anyone have to love Saudi Arabia to not be a "trader" [sic] to the U.S.? Saudi Arabia is run by a dictatorial cabal that suppresses civil liberties at home and promotes terrorism and war across half the globe. True Americans who love freedom and democracy should be horrified our government has anything to do with these monsters.

NPR did a piece on the crown prince, what’s his name, of Saudi Arabia the other night. I can't remember his name and don’t have time to look it up. I believe he is trying to change his country, but it is a primitive monarchy. They might have modern toys, but they have medieval ideas. He has to rule with an iron fist to stay alive unless he is prepared to kill all of his brothers and many of his cousins. He can’t tolerate criticism it could cause a civil war.

He can’t tolerate criticism it could cause a civil war.

I doubt there is one despot in history who hasn't made that argument.

Meanwhile Iran is still screwed. They tried to close some of the 24/7 shrines and they instigated riots. https://www.yahoo.com/news/hard-line-sh ... 59798.html

I guess rioting over toilet paper is so much more civilized...

But her e-mails!

Link to an article about the COVID-19 virus in Iran. Over 16,000 infected with 988 deaths. That's about a 6% death rate compared to 4% here. https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-irans- ... 16617.html

Iran has a lower number of cases per million than Iceland, Italy, Switzerland, Norway and Spain (link). And you know that the U.S. is screwed when its survival rate barely compares favourably with Iran.

Using the table Scooter linked, Iran has many more recovered than deaths. Like S Korea and China. Which implies to me they are at the far end of the curve. So, if the numbers they are reporting are accurate, they may be doing something right.

Have you seen the photos of the mass burial sites in Iran? https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/middleea ... index.html