coronavirus predictions

[rubato]

Now that it is well entrenched throughout the world we can start asking what changes will this leave in its wake?

Minor prediction: After a 'bump' from people trying out delivery services there will be a long term shift increasing use as people try them for the first time and realize the advantages.

Major prediction: The WHO, UN, WTO and G-20 will force the closure / severe regulation of "wet markets" in China and else where or the regulation of trade in wild animals for food.

Conservatives will still ignore science.

Yours?

yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

People will trust their leaders less.

[MajGenl.Meade]

rubato will still be wrong 33% of the time

[Bicycle Bill]

You know, Guinevere posted this graph about two weeks ago, and I've seen it just about everywhere else someone is talking about this crisis we have found ourselves in.  Supposedly, it shows that if we all do our part and isolate ourselves/self-quarantine/shelter in place, eliminate unnecessary travel, and observe 'social distancing' if we MUST leave our own personal pesthouses, we will "flatten the curve" and avoid placing excessive demands on an otherwise ill-prepared, overloaded healthcare system.

What a lot of people seem to overlook is that a flat curve is a LONGER, more shallow curve, which will cause the pandemic to run at least twice as long — meaning that these Draconian shutdowns, closures, and cancellations aren't going to be for just two to three weeks; we're more likely looking at TWO TO THREE MONTHS of this shit.

I predict that by the middle of April, if not before, people will start assessing the risks for themselves, reach the conclusion that the cure is worse than the disease, and demand that the country re-open for business and life as usual.

-"BB"-

[Scooter]

So you're predicting that the U.S. will become Italy and learn the hard way why they should have listened to the scientists. You may end up finding out what that means up close and personal, because in Italy someone your age will automatically be excluded from access to mechanical ventilation, as there are far too many other people to try to save.

Back to the OP:

Many people whose employers insisted that it wasn't practical for them to work from home, will learn that they can do it quite effectively, and will demand the right to do so moving forward.

The advantages of a universal basic income will become apparent, and Andrew Yang's status will change from crank to prophet. Ditto paid sick leave.

[No Greater Fool]

People will trust their leaders less.

Not possible given the current regime.

[Darren]

I was stunned to read that Ruth Bader Ginsburg recently attended the opera in DC. The blog mentioned she walked very slowly to her seat with her entourage. That's contrary to the reports of her being spry. The same author mentioned people walking out of restrooms w/o washing their hands and tickets being touched instead of scanned.

There are also mentions of people flocking to the Hamptons with one renter specifying a price point of between $400,000 and $1,000,000 for a rental. The local appliance outlet has received orders for hundreds of freezers.

Grocery store shelves were stripped leaving local residents incensed. What I'm seeing is more of the rules for thee but not for me among those whose whims are normally instantly satisfied. They seem to consider themselves above the bedlam. They have choices you do not.

My prediction is we'll see the grim reaper harvest many of so-called elite including celebrities and their ilk.

[Big RR]

So you're predicting that the U.S. will become Italy and learn the hard way why they should have listened to the scientists. You may end up finding out what that means up close and personal, because in Italy someone your age will automatically be excluded from access to mechanical ventilation, as there are far too many other people to try to save.

That's a valid point Scooter, stretching out the curve permits a better marshaling of resources (saving some), but it has to be balanced against the cost in terms of the economy crashing. It may be that at the end, people will return to a decimated economy with no job to return to (in an office or at home), major shortages of food and goods, and a lot of people who survived the outbreak but who the system cannot afford to treat for any other conditions. Not to mention, in the US our election might be cancelled "until things normalize".

We have to strike a balance here, unless we choose to quash dissent as some countries have. There''s no really good answer, just a lot of bad ones--and in the US we have an idiot at the helm who cannot lead.

I'm not very hopeful in this ending well; personally, I think this phase will take a turn in about a month or so when the usual flu season ends; but then, just as with the Spanish flu, it will come back in the Fall with a vengeance. Of course, few countries (definitely not the US) will use the summer to stockpile needed supplies for the coming crisis, we will will be worse off in October; Trump, using the outbreak as an excuse, and with the counsel of Rudy Giulianni, will "postpone" the election indefinitely which will lead to a collapse of our entire system.

[Darren]

The positive aspect is two antibiotics have been shown to be effective. It's not COVID-19 that kills it's the pneumonia that's enabled. The antibiotics address bacterial pneumonia. That may mean people who have had shots for pneumonia may have a better chance of survival.

A drug maker in WV has already gone back to making one of the antibiotics, chloroquine. My prediction is those drugs will turn the tide on deaths at some point.

[BoSoxGal]

I agree; as upsetting as things are this week, the future will be much bleaker.

One way or the other, the president’s fantasy of getting back to normal is just that - a fantasy. The natural world is reminding us just how little all our human constructs matter.

[ex-khobar Andy]

The worst trend I have seen is the upsurge in gun purchases. Clearly a lot of people think that society might explode to the extent that there will be armed gangs or individuals intent on procuring food or water or toilet paper who will take it from where they find it. I don't think that's a likely event but it is certainly possible. 10% maybe?

[BoSoxGal]

The positive aspect is two antibiotics have been shown to be effective. It's not COVID-19 that kills it's the pneumonia that's enabled. The antibiotics address bacterial pneumonia. That may mean people who have had shots for pneumonia may have a better chance of survival.

A drug maker in WV has already gone back to making one of the antibiotics. My prediction is those drugs will turn the tide on deaths at some point.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... t-covid-19

Most patients with covid19 have viral, not bacterial, pneumonia. Viral pneumonia doesn’t respond to antibiotics. Also it is inaccurate to claim that pneumonia is killing most covid19 patients; in fact, many are dying from sepsis due to the body’s immune response to the virus, and many others are dying of ARDS - respiratory distress syndrome or wet lung - which also doesn’t respond to antibiotics.

Most of the 20% of covid19 patients who end up in hospital in critical care can only be offered supportive measures - there are as of yet no miracle treatments. The president and his cult followers saying otherwise are dangerously ill informed.

[Darren]

The positive aspect is two antibiotics have been shown to be effective. It's not COVID-19 that kills it's the pneumonia that's enabled. The antibiotics address bacterial pneumonia. That may mean people who have had shots for pneumonia may have a better chance of survival.

A drug maker in WV has already gone back to making one of the antibiotics. My prediction is those drugs will turn the tide on deaths at some point.

Most patients with covid19 have viral, not bacterial, pneumonia. Viral pneumonia doesn’t respond to antibiotics. It is a misnomer to claim that pneumonia is killing most covid19 patients; in fact, many are dying from sepsis due to the body’s immune response to the virus, and many others are dying of ARDS - respiratory distress syndrome or wet lung - which doesn’t respond to antibiotics.

Most of the 20% of covid19 patients who end up in hospital in critical care can only be offered supportive measures - there are of yet no miracle treatments. The president and his cult followers saying otherwise are dangerously ill informed.

We'll have to wait and see. We should know soon and see a national roll out if initial reports are correct.

"The governor (Cuomo) also announced the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the New York State Department of Health can begin using an experimental drug treatment, hydroxychloroquine and zithromax, on compassionate care cases. "

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/healt ... ff8f8ce3ea

[Burning Petard]

Antibiotic ? ? Antiviral ? ? not even all physicians keep this straight. I hope this pandemic will change this. A year ago it was not unusual for the physician to say--It's just a cold, here is Rx for an antibiotic. Be sure and take all of it.

I always foolishly hoped such scrip had a secret code (just give them a placebo) but that would have all kinds of legal problems.

snailgate

[Big RR]

In some cases that form of treatment is acceptable because it basically prevents opportunistic infections such as pneumonia due to your reduced resistance because of the viral infection; indeed, I recall when I was a kid we aways got a shot of pennicillin when you went to the doctors, even with the flu or a bad cold, and opportunistic infections such as pneumonia or scarlet fever became fairly rare.

Of course, this is a double edged sword, and the development of antitbiotic resistant bacterial strains was intensified by this use of the current antibiotics (as well as because many people don't take antibiotics correctly and just stop when they feel better). And these competing interests need to be balanced. Physicians have become less prone to immediately prescribing broad spectrum antibiotics when people exhibit viral symptoms, but the opportunistic infections have returned; they can be treated later if they are discovered, but if this takes enough time complications (like lung damage or rheumatic fever) may develop. When my kids were young the pediatricians (at least their pediatricians) rarely provided antibiotics and insturcted parents to use Tylenol and watch what developed, but perhaps this is changing the other way based on your statement.

[Darren]

The great thing is the treatment is being done in NY and especially NYC which is a critical area. I'm surprised the FDA moved as fast as they did.

[Econoline]

Gee, when was the last time a nationalist movement cult argued that >6,000,000 people were "(1) generally expensive to maintain, and (2) not productive" ???

[Burning Petard]

I hope that the 2.5% are the 'senior citizens' like Trump. He certainly is expensive to maintain and not at all productive. He does't even package steaks or make wine anymore.

snailgate

[BoSoxGal]

That’s 9 million people, right?

[Econoline]

Right. (In my post above I alluded to that fact somewhat obliquely, rather than pointing out the obvious: 9,000,000 > 6,000,000.)