coronavirus predictions

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Econoline
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Econoline »

A very solid near-term prediction from Adam-Troy Castro:
What's gonna eventually happen is this. We will not all get sick and we will not all die. But in short order we will all know someone who has gotten sick, and not long after that we will all know someone who has died. This will someday very soon be a universal referent.
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Lord Jim
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

By then I think we will have turned the corner when the vast majority of people realize the virus isn't a death sentence. That's because an effective treatment will have been validated as it has been elsewhere.
I'm thinking happy days will soon be here again.
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Bicycle Bill
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Darren wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:36 pm
Crackpot wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:01 pm
Scooter wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:45 pm
I get that your need to swirl your tongue inside Trump's rectum requires you to be a cheerleader for his completely indefensible statement that hydroxychloroquine is a "gamechanger", but you should just resign yourself to the fact that you're talking out of your ass.
wouldn't that be "talking into his ass?"
Let's just say I never pass up a chance to drop a Butter Finger into the community pool. Perspectives and subsequent reactions may vary.
In the movie, it was a Baby Ruth bar.
(Actually, it was a 'Baby Rut'.  The final 'H' on the wrapper had been removed, undoubtedly to avoid copyright issues/legal problems with Standard Brands — which had by then purchased the Curtis Candy Company, original manufacturer of the candy bar — since this didn't exactly put their product in the best of lights.  Check the first few seconds of this video if you don't believe me.)
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Darren
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Darren »

Bicycle Bill wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:06 am
Darren wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:36 pm
Crackpot wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:01 pm


wouldn't that be "talking into his ass?"
Let's just say I never pass up a chance to drop a Butter Finger into the community pool. Perspectives and subsequent reactions may vary.
In the movie, it was a Baby Ruth bar.
(Actually, it was a 'Baby Rut'.  The final 'H' on the wrapper had been removed, undoubtedly to avoid copyright issues/legal problems with Standard Brands — which had by then purchased the Curtis Candy Company, original manufacturer of the candy bar — since this didn't exactly put their product in the best of lights.  Check the first few seconds of this video if you don't believe me.)
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Econoline
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Econoline »

Prediction: by the beginning of next week we will have AT LEAST 20 different coronavirus threads here, AT LEAST three-fourths of which will have been started by Darren.

(This makes it a bit difficult to reply to any individual post on the subject, BTW, since it's difficult to remember in which of those 20+ threads a particular post appeared...)
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eddieq
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by eddieq »

Personally, I'm ignoring them. I read the other threads and when I'm down to only the "countdown" threads, I mark the forum read.

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Bicycle Bill
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Bicycle Bill »

eddieq wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:26 pm
Personally, I'm ignoring them. I read the other threads and when I'm down to only the "countdown" threads, I mark the forum read.
You really should at least skim through them (bypassing Darren's droppings, of course) just to see the rebuttals, comebacks, and putdowns the rest of us throw into them.
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Lord Jim
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

and the videos... 8-)
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Econoline
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Econoline »

Bicycle Bill wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:53 pm
You really should at least skim through them (bypassing Darren's droppings, of course) just to see the rebuttals, comebacks, and putdowns the rest of us throw into them.
That's what I do, but I'm getting a bit frustrated/fed up...especially with the realization that there will be AT LEAST five more such threads started in the next few days.

If everybody here did what Eddie does, it wouldn't be a problem... ;)
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BoSoxGal
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by BoSoxGal »

As long as everyone remembers MY Coronavirus thread is THE coronavirus thread and should live as long as the virus is with us - just like that fucking ‘trump is serious!!!!’ thread which persists as long as the Cheeto Mussolini rules our country.

Heck the Coronavirus thread might even outlast ME!

(Please save all your BEST covid posts for Coronavirus.)

As predictions go, I just read a lovely article on CNN saying the death rate might be far lower than the gloomy predictions of a week or so ago, which apparently were based on an assumption that only 50% of Americans would socially distance - but we are being WAY more behaved than that, so YAY USA! Now don’t get cocky, keep staying at home!
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Scooter
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Scooter »

Fauci: I don't think we should shake hands 'ever again'

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a key member of the White House coronavirus task force, on Wednesday suggested that Americans should never shake hands again.

"When you gradually come back, you don't jump into it with both feet. You say, what are the things you could still do and still approach normal? One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing. The other is you don't ever shake anybody's hands," Fauci told The Wall Street Journal's podcast.

"I don't think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease; it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country," the doctor added.
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BoSoxGal
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by BoSoxGal »

I never shake hands in flu season - haven’t for several years now. If someone extends their hand to me, I thank them graciously and tell them that because of compromised immunity I don’t shake hands. Anyone who if offended by that is an idiot who probably doesn’t wash their hands much at all.

I’d consider it wonderful if our culture shifted from such a stupid practice that originated long before germ theory arose. It’s meant to show you don’t carry arms or some such nonsense; prayer hands and a head bow seem a perfectly gracious greeting.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Lord Jim
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

prayer hands and a head bow seem a perfectly gracious greeting.
or:

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BoSoxGal
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Re: coronavirus predictions

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That’s lovely too - I believe it is close to the traditional greeting of the Lakota.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan

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Scooter
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Scooter »

Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you can not walk/run/bike close to each other.

What is a safe distance when running, biking and walking during COVID-19 times? It is further than the typical 1–2 meter as prescribed in different countries!

In a lot of countries walking, biking and jogging are welcome activities in these times of COVID-19. However, it is important to note that you need to avoid each other's slipstream when doing these activities. This comes out of the result of a study by the KU Leuven (Belgium) and TU Eindhoven (Netherlands). (1)(2)(3)

The typical social distancing rule which many countries apply between 1–2 meters seems effective when you are standing still inside or even outside with low wind. But when you go for a walk, run or bike ride you better be more careful. When someone during a run breathes, sneezes or coughs, those particles stay behind in the air. The person running behind you in the so-called slip-stream goes through this cloud of droplets.

The researchers came to this conclusion by simulating the occurrence of saliva particles of persons during movement (walking and running) and this from different positions (next to each other, diagonally behind each other and directly behind each other). Normally this type of modelling is used to improve the performance level of athletes as staying in each other air-stream is very effective. But when looking at COVID-19 the recommendation is to stay out of the slipstream according to the research.

The results of the test are made visible in a number of animations and visuals. The cloud of droplets left behind by a person is clearly visible. “People who sneeze or cough spread droplets with a bigger force, but also people who just breathe will leave particles behind”. The red dots on the image represent the biggest particles. These create the highest chance of contamination but also fall down faster. “But when running through that cloud they still can land on your clothing” according to Professor Bert Blocken.

Out of the simulations, it appears that social distancing plays less of a role for 2 people in a low wind environment when running/walking next to each other. The droplets land behind the duo. When you are positioned diagonally behind each other the risk is also smaller to catch the droplets of the lead runner. The risk of contamination is the biggest when people are just behind each other, in each other’s slipstream.

On the basis of these results the scientist advises that for walking the distance of people moving in the same direction in 1 line should be at least 4–5 meter, for running and slow biking it should be 10 meters and for hard biking at least 20 meters. Also, when passing someone it is advised to already be in different lane at a considerable distance e.g. 20 meters for biking.

This is definitely information I will be taking into account and it also puts in perspective the closing of busy parks etc. Perhaps the better way is just running in the street, on your own or at least with sufficient distance. Stay safe…

(1): https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/belgisch ... ~b60aece6/

(2): https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/w ... ~a60aece6/

(3): http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Di ... _Paper.pdf
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eddieq
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by eddieq »

When I'm running, I generally adjust my distance and go out into the street or cross when I see someone else. I'll be more cognizant over the coming weeks of greater distance while exercising.

My "middle child" has been exposed at work. She has her own apartment and is quarantined for another week. So far, no symptoms, so fingers crossed for her.

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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Scooter wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:51 pm
Fauci: I don't think we should shake hands 'ever again'

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a key member of the White House coronavirus task force, on Wednesday suggested that Americans should never shake hands again.

"When you gradually come back, you don't jump into it with both feet. You say, what are the things you could still do and still approach normal? One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing. The other is you don't ever shake anybody's hands," Fauci told The Wall Street Journal's podcast.

"I don't think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease; it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country," the doctor added.
Well, there's always the custom of ojigi ....

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which for most Americans would take a helluvalot of getting used to.
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Re: coronavirus predictions

Post by Bicycle Bill »

BoSoxGal wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:29 pm
That’s lovely too - I believe it is close to the traditional greeting of the Lakota.
You're correct, the upraised arm goes back to the days of old when knights were bold (and t.p. had not been invented... :P ), if not even farther, and was originally meant to show an approaching person that you were not bearing arms and meant no harm.
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Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?

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