I was just checking my math with higher sources because I’m notoriously bad at maths.
45* keeps citing the annual influenza deaths to justify reopening the economy on Easter; talk about someone who is really, really bad at maths.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:40 am
by Lord Jim
I predict that the next big "hotspot" will soon be Florida; it may well be the next New York.
In Florida, you have a perfect storm of factors for a major coronavirus disaster:
1.A large elderly population
2.A youth population that has largely acted very irresponsibly regarding behavior likely to spread infection
3. An idiot Trumpist Governor who despite all the red flags has failed to impose a common sense shelter-in-place order.
coronavirus predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm
by RayThom
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:01 pm
by BoSoxGal
Apparently Louisiana is experiencing an incredible spike, on par with the numbers over in Italy - including a very high rate of infection in EMS workers leading to a shortage there that is critical. Fallout from Mardi Gras celebrations, is the belief. (To clarify, on par with the early trajectory in Italy - not current numbers from there.)
Americans, it turns out, aren’t nearly as community oriented (spirited?) as people in eastern countries. We are totally fucked.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:11 pm
by eddieq
I run with a local volunteer fire company. We are on strict "protect yourself" protocols. PPE, stay with the trucks on EMS assists until we are specifically called inside the residence, etc.
I was just checking my math with higher sources because I’m notoriously bad at maths.
45* keeps citing the annual influenza deaths to justify reopening the economy on Easter; talk about someone who is really, really bad at maths.
I want Trump to be right (just as I want all the climate change deniers to be right - I want them someday to point to a decimal place error we've all missed) - but all the science and maths I have ever learned says he's wrong. The maths of an epidemic spread are not complicated -and if we can reduce the 'contagability factor' by (say) 50% we can reduce the spread by many times that. Everything we are doing reduces that factor but does not eliminate it. The graphs of the spread I have seen from NY and LA and FL in particular are frightening and there is no sign yet of abatement.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:24 am
by rubato
Our infection rate data is distorted by the fact we are testing very few people. In our data a confirmed case is nearly always a sick person so the much larger number of infected people is invisible.
I run with a local volunteer fire company. We are on strict "protect yourself" protocols. PPE, stay with the trucks on EMS assists until we are specifically called inside the residence, etc.
Please stay in and stay safe, folks.
Good on you mate, much respect.
Over here fireys are training to be back up ambulance drivers.
I run with a local volunteer fire company. We are on strict "protect yourself" protocols. PPE, stay with the trucks on EMS assists until we are specifically called inside the residence, etc.
Please stay in and stay safe, folks.
Good on you mate, much respect.
Over here fireys are training to be back up ambulance drivers.
Many of our guys are trained/capable for ambulance driving. More than once we've been out on an "EMS Assist" where we showed up and they asked, "can someone drive so we can tend the patient? We are short handed tonight". My role is traffic control, so I don't often get involved with the hand-off of driving the ambo. I do get to drive our "Air" unit (cascade system for refilling the air tanks) as it does double-duty as a traffic unit.
FORTUNATELY, we've been very quiet the last couple of weeks. It seems more people are staying home and being more careful.
Our infection rate data is distorted by the fact we are testing very few people. In our data a confirmed case is nearly always a sick person so the much larger number of infected people is invisible.
Yrs
Rubato
I agree. The next few weeks should provide a better picture of where we stand,
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:03 am
by ex-khobar Andy
If anyone wants to take a look at the maths behind these models, there's a great Numberphile video linked below. Numberphile have videos using mostly UK mathematicians explaining various concepts. You don't really need to have a lot of maths to like this video but if you have a little idea of calculus it helps. Well worth it. 22 minutes.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:50 am
by MajGenl.Meade
Not exactly predictions, but someone asked about death rates and this is an interesting site
The next few weeks should provide a better picture of where we stand
Well Darren, there's something we can agree on...
By then I think we will have turned the corner when the vast majority of people realize the virus isn't a death sentence. That's because an effective treatment will have been validated as it has been elsewhere.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:19 pm
by Scooter
Please provide a link to the published study that has validated this "effective treatment". Hint - anecdotal cases of something that may have killed as many or more people than it saved doesn't count.
Please provide a link to the published study that has validated this "effective treatment". Hint - anecdotal cases of something that may have killed as many or more people than it saved doesn't count.
This is a recent summary. Pick and choose as you wish ... or not.
The ongoing New York FDA accelerated trial should prove the treatment if the other reports are true. I'm thinking happy days will soon be here again.
But a second study emerged last week from Shanghai University in China of 30 patients hospitalized for Covid-19. Whether patients received hydroxychloroquine or not, their body temperature returned to normal a day after hospitalization, and the time it took for levels of the virus to become undetectable was comparable. Unlike the study from France, the patients in this study were randomly assigned to either hydroxychloroquine or the control group, which makes the results more reliable.
Three statisticians published a review of the French study that argued that the way it was designed made the treatments look better than they actually are. They pointed to the lack of randomization, as well as an inappropriate control group composed partly of people who refused to take the drug. They also noted that the study dropped some patients from the analysis — the small study of 42 patients actually only included data from 36.
“The [French] study gave very little useful information about whether hydroxychloroquine might help,” Morris wrote. “The Shanghai study is better (because they had a meaningful control group) but gives us very little information that hydroxychloroquine doesn’t help.” The data, he wrote, are “compatible with a wide range of possible effects,” which is statistician-speak for, “Nobody knows whether the drug helps or not.”
As the title of the article you cite as evidence states:
Right now, we don’t know
I get that your need to swirl your tongue inside Trump's rectum requires you to be a cheerleader for his completely indefensible statement that hydroxychloroquine is a "gamechanger", but you should just resign yourself to the fact that you're talking out of your ass.
Re: coronavirus predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:01 pm
by Crackpot
I get that your need to swirl your tongue inside Trump's rectum requires you to be a cheerleader for his completely indefensible statement that hydroxychloroquine is a "gamechanger", but you should just resign yourself to the fact that you're talking out of your ass.[/quote}
{quote]I get that your need to swirl your tongue inside Trump's rectum requires you to be a cheerleader for his completely indefensible statement that hydroxychloroquine is a "gamechanger", but you should just resign yourself to the fact that you're talking out of your ass.
wouldn't that be talking into his ass?"{/quote}
Let's just say I never pass up a chance to drop a Butter Finger into the community pool. Perspectives and subsequent reactions may vary.
