You really ought to be embarrassed to put a story like that up as a "balance" to over a thousand people dying needlessly every day...
But utter shamelessness is of course another prerequisite for a Trumpist propagandist...
Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
"ALBANY, N.Y. (CBSNewYork) – New York may already be at or near its apex of cases, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday.
“We’re looking at this seriously now, because by the data we could be either very near the apex, or the apex could be a plateau, and we could be on that plateau right now,” Cuomo said. “We won’t know until we see the next few days – does it go up, does it go down – but that is what the statisticians will tell you today.”"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coron ... r-BB12bSTK
“We’re looking at this seriously now, because by the data we could be either very near the apex, or the apex could be a plateau, and we could be on that plateau right now,” Cuomo said. “We won’t know until we see the next few days – does it go up, does it go down – but that is what the statisticians will tell you today.”"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coron ... r-BB12bSTK
Thank you RBG wherever you are!
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
Here's an article which discusses the seed time for the pandemic and why the peak we're expecting months from now may already be past. That explains the leveling off of case loads in New York mentioned by Cuomo.
"The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic.
Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time."
https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-c ... e80eed1bd0
"The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic.
Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time."
https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-c ... e80eed1bd0
Thank you RBG wherever you are!
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
The good news just keeps on coming.
"In 2004, researchers at the University of Leuven in Belgium discovered yet another property of nitric oxide: It killed coronaviruses.
More specifically, it killed the coronavirus that leapt from bats to humans and sparked the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome, the disease better known as SARS."
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-patients
"In 2004, researchers at the University of Leuven in Belgium discovered yet another property of nitric oxide: It killed coronaviruses.
More specifically, it killed the coronavirus that leapt from bats to humans and sparked the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome, the disease better known as SARS."
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-patients
Thank you RBG wherever you are!
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Econoline
- Posts: 9557
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 6:25 pm
- Location: DeKalb, Illinois...out amidst the corn, soybeans, and Republicans
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
More good news! Trump is smarter than a virus. (According to Trump.)
People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
— God @The Tweet of God
— God @The Tweet of God
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
The previous link to an article is dead. This is the cached article.
A simple explanation for the dramatic increase in ILI visits in November-December 2019 is an earlier-than-presumed seeding of COVID in the U.S.
Taking into account CDC Flu surveillance data, the early-January seed date utilized by the Imperial Study seems unlikely.
Covert COVID
There is additional anecdotal, deductive, and empirical evidence which, in conjunction with the flu surveillance data, supports the theory that COVID was established in the US well before the first confirmed case.
For example, in my own story, I describe how and why I believe my family already had COVID-19 in January and February. The symptoms we exhibited were specific enough to warrant the assumption of COVID infection under current CDC guidelines.
And we’re not the only ones.
If we allow for an earlier seed date, hundreds of thousands of flu-like illnesses that occurred in the months before the first officially recognized US case can also retrospectively be characterized as COVID, based on their symptoms alone.
When we don’t know what we are looking for and we don’t question assumptions, information that might otherwise seem obvious can go unnoticed.
But when we do look for evidence, it's not difficult to find. And as antibody tests become available, there will be more and more data about who has already been infected.
Why this matters so much.
A better understanding of where the COVID curve begins will improve anticipation and rationing of healthcare resources — both among COVID cases and for people with non-COVID related illnesses who are in need of medical care.
The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic.
Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time.
It means that we are grossly overestimating the case fatality rate and that what we fear is just the beginning may actually be the peak.
It’s possible that the COVID curve is already flat because if we are at or nearing the peak, we are effectively coping with the healthcare demand, and a large segment of the US population may already be immune, rendering most, if not all, of the impending economic damage unnecessary.
If COVID began 60 days earlier, canceling “elective” healthcare procedures, closing schools, and shutting down the economy is too high a price to pay to slow the rate of transmission of a disease that is slowing on its own and has a much lower case fatality rate (CFR) than initially assumed.
I will admit that I have a horse in this race. Five of them, actually. I’m one of the millions of people paying that very high price.
Fifteen months ago, I was diagnosed with a tumor in my liver. Because of its location, the risk/benefit of performing a diagnostic biopsy on the mass was too low to justify proceeding, so my oncologist took a watch-and-wait approach. Six months ago, I was relieved by a follow-up scan that indicated it had not grown. Nonetheless, in the last two weeks, I have developed GI symptoms that are consistent with the tumor spreading. As of now, I am unable to get a scan to rule out the possibility of metastasis of my disease because the imaging necessary to monitor my liver is considered “elective”. And when the healthcare system does finally come back online, the backlog of patients like me will result in even more delays to access.
Should the worst-case come to pass for me, and I later discover that I do have cancer that has spread and we missed the window to diagnose and treat it, my life will be one of many casualties of the COVID response. My four daughters will grow up without their mother and will likely be left in the custody of their father whom they currently only see every other weekend (two of them are completely estranged for him) and who has recently lost his job as nurse administrator of an outpatient orthopedic surgical facility due to CVOID-19. The owners were forced to shut the facility down a week ago because the governor of our state issued a ban on elective surgeries. His financial stability is doubly in question because the economic security measures that have been put in place for individuals affected by COVID specifically exclude healthcare workers.
So, in my little family alone, not only are my kids suffering the typical cabin fever and educational setbacks, but I have lost most of my freelance writing income, their father has lost his job which provided 50% of our financial support, we were not able to pay rent yesterday, and I am unable to obtain what could potentially be life-saving health care.
The current cumulative total of hospitalized COVID patients in my home state of Arizona as of this writing, and for which all of these sacrifices are being made, is 228. And that’s the cumulative number than has been accruing since March 24th, not the number currently hospitalized. Arizona has 14,790 hospital beds.
Our curve is flat.
My family is making mandated sacrifices in order to reserve capacity in the healthcare system for COVID patients who do not currently (and likely will never) exist — all because the COVID curve predicated on an inaccurate seed date says that the overwhelming surge is just barely beginning.
And our circumstances are not special.
Just in the realm of “elective” healthcare, melanomas across the nation are metastasizing because routine mole checks aren’t being conducted. Cancers are growing unrestricted because hospitals aren’t allowed to do most surgeries. Early diabetes is going undiagnosed because you can’t do A1C bloodwork with closed labs. Both life-saving and quality-of-life-preserving care is being withheld because we are conserving capacity for COVID-19 patients that, in a lot of areas, will never materialize.
And, health-related considerations aside, we are also wrecking the livelihoods of millions of Americans in service of preventing transmission among many who have likely already been exposed and recovered.
Ten million Americans filed for unemployment in the month of March. Small businesses are being forced to choose between closing their doors and incurring crippling long-term debt. The economy is teetering on collapse. Careers are being demolished. Retirement savings are vanishing. Children are trapped in abusive homes and domestic violence reports are sky-rocketing all because — in our panic — we never critically questioned when the COVID curve really began.
This is not who we are
We have a chance to gather more information and stop this. We have information at our fingertips that could help us pinpoint exactly where we are on the curve, determine an accurate case fatality rate, and tailor less draconian mitigation measures specific to each geographic locale. We have the ability to tailor responses to specific areas and support communities hardest hit by the surge, like NYC and Louisiana.
The U.S. just approved a test for COVID antibodies. According to the New York Times,
People with immunity might be able to venture safely from their homes and help shore up the work force. It may be particularly important for doctors and nurses to know whether they have antibodies.
Antibody testing eventually should give scientists a better sense of how widespread the infection is in the population and help researchers calculate more precisely the fatality rate and the frequency of asymptomatic infections.
What will it take for antibody testing to become a priority for US health officials? What happens when we look at the COVID response devastation in the rearview mirror and say, “That didn’t have to happen after all.”?
I hope I’m here to see it.
The possibility that we may be 60 days in time from where we have been told we are should be good news. The idea that right now may be as bad as it’s going to get should be elating. We should be clamoring to determine the least-restrictive, most-effective way to manage this novel outbreak.
But I know that there’s a difference between “shoulds” and what actually is. We have been too busy shaming our neighbors for getting fresh air and hoarding toilet paper to consider that we are being driven by fear, not fact and that it has shut down our ability to recognize inconsistencies and look for answers. Instead, we call anyone who questions the “sky is falling” narrative selfish, stupid, and irresponsible because aligning with the prevailing moral outrage renders us impervious to criticism.
And I don’t recognize us. That is not who we are.
We are Americans. We are innovative, resourceful, diverse, and dynamic. We are capable of addressing both the lethality of COVID and our economic stability. We are capable of protecting the sick and the vulnerable without requiring the world to come to a standstill with no idea how to restart it.
The most valuable tool we need in order to perform metaphorical surgery on this outbreak is accurate information. And to get that information, we have to be open to the idea that some of our fundamental assumptions about COVID-19 are wrong.
Thomas P Seager, PhD contributed to this story.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... zrAxMS5wYY
A simple explanation for the dramatic increase in ILI visits in November-December 2019 is an earlier-than-presumed seeding of COVID in the U.S.
Taking into account CDC Flu surveillance data, the early-January seed date utilized by the Imperial Study seems unlikely.
Covert COVID
There is additional anecdotal, deductive, and empirical evidence which, in conjunction with the flu surveillance data, supports the theory that COVID was established in the US well before the first confirmed case.
For example, in my own story, I describe how and why I believe my family already had COVID-19 in January and February. The symptoms we exhibited were specific enough to warrant the assumption of COVID infection under current CDC guidelines.
And we’re not the only ones.
If we allow for an earlier seed date, hundreds of thousands of flu-like illnesses that occurred in the months before the first officially recognized US case can also retrospectively be characterized as COVID, based on their symptoms alone.
When we don’t know what we are looking for and we don’t question assumptions, information that might otherwise seem obvious can go unnoticed.
But when we do look for evidence, it's not difficult to find. And as antibody tests become available, there will be more and more data about who has already been infected.
Why this matters so much.
A better understanding of where the COVID curve begins will improve anticipation and rationing of healthcare resources — both among COVID cases and for people with non-COVID related illnesses who are in need of medical care.
The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic.
Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time.
It means that we are grossly overestimating the case fatality rate and that what we fear is just the beginning may actually be the peak.
It’s possible that the COVID curve is already flat because if we are at or nearing the peak, we are effectively coping with the healthcare demand, and a large segment of the US population may already be immune, rendering most, if not all, of the impending economic damage unnecessary.
If COVID began 60 days earlier, canceling “elective” healthcare procedures, closing schools, and shutting down the economy is too high a price to pay to slow the rate of transmission of a disease that is slowing on its own and has a much lower case fatality rate (CFR) than initially assumed.
I will admit that I have a horse in this race. Five of them, actually. I’m one of the millions of people paying that very high price.
Fifteen months ago, I was diagnosed with a tumor in my liver. Because of its location, the risk/benefit of performing a diagnostic biopsy on the mass was too low to justify proceeding, so my oncologist took a watch-and-wait approach. Six months ago, I was relieved by a follow-up scan that indicated it had not grown. Nonetheless, in the last two weeks, I have developed GI symptoms that are consistent with the tumor spreading. As of now, I am unable to get a scan to rule out the possibility of metastasis of my disease because the imaging necessary to monitor my liver is considered “elective”. And when the healthcare system does finally come back online, the backlog of patients like me will result in even more delays to access.
Should the worst-case come to pass for me, and I later discover that I do have cancer that has spread and we missed the window to diagnose and treat it, my life will be one of many casualties of the COVID response. My four daughters will grow up without their mother and will likely be left in the custody of their father whom they currently only see every other weekend (two of them are completely estranged for him) and who has recently lost his job as nurse administrator of an outpatient orthopedic surgical facility due to CVOID-19. The owners were forced to shut the facility down a week ago because the governor of our state issued a ban on elective surgeries. His financial stability is doubly in question because the economic security measures that have been put in place for individuals affected by COVID specifically exclude healthcare workers.
So, in my little family alone, not only are my kids suffering the typical cabin fever and educational setbacks, but I have lost most of my freelance writing income, their father has lost his job which provided 50% of our financial support, we were not able to pay rent yesterday, and I am unable to obtain what could potentially be life-saving health care.
The current cumulative total of hospitalized COVID patients in my home state of Arizona as of this writing, and for which all of these sacrifices are being made, is 228. And that’s the cumulative number than has been accruing since March 24th, not the number currently hospitalized. Arizona has 14,790 hospital beds.
Our curve is flat.
My family is making mandated sacrifices in order to reserve capacity in the healthcare system for COVID patients who do not currently (and likely will never) exist — all because the COVID curve predicated on an inaccurate seed date says that the overwhelming surge is just barely beginning.
And our circumstances are not special.
Just in the realm of “elective” healthcare, melanomas across the nation are metastasizing because routine mole checks aren’t being conducted. Cancers are growing unrestricted because hospitals aren’t allowed to do most surgeries. Early diabetes is going undiagnosed because you can’t do A1C bloodwork with closed labs. Both life-saving and quality-of-life-preserving care is being withheld because we are conserving capacity for COVID-19 patients that, in a lot of areas, will never materialize.
And, health-related considerations aside, we are also wrecking the livelihoods of millions of Americans in service of preventing transmission among many who have likely already been exposed and recovered.
Ten million Americans filed for unemployment in the month of March. Small businesses are being forced to choose between closing their doors and incurring crippling long-term debt. The economy is teetering on collapse. Careers are being demolished. Retirement savings are vanishing. Children are trapped in abusive homes and domestic violence reports are sky-rocketing all because — in our panic — we never critically questioned when the COVID curve really began.
This is not who we are
We have a chance to gather more information and stop this. We have information at our fingertips that could help us pinpoint exactly where we are on the curve, determine an accurate case fatality rate, and tailor less draconian mitigation measures specific to each geographic locale. We have the ability to tailor responses to specific areas and support communities hardest hit by the surge, like NYC and Louisiana.
The U.S. just approved a test for COVID antibodies. According to the New York Times,
People with immunity might be able to venture safely from their homes and help shore up the work force. It may be particularly important for doctors and nurses to know whether they have antibodies.
Antibody testing eventually should give scientists a better sense of how widespread the infection is in the population and help researchers calculate more precisely the fatality rate and the frequency of asymptomatic infections.
What will it take for antibody testing to become a priority for US health officials? What happens when we look at the COVID response devastation in the rearview mirror and say, “That didn’t have to happen after all.”?
I hope I’m here to see it.
The possibility that we may be 60 days in time from where we have been told we are should be good news. The idea that right now may be as bad as it’s going to get should be elating. We should be clamoring to determine the least-restrictive, most-effective way to manage this novel outbreak.
But I know that there’s a difference between “shoulds” and what actually is. We have been too busy shaming our neighbors for getting fresh air and hoarding toilet paper to consider that we are being driven by fear, not fact and that it has shut down our ability to recognize inconsistencies and look for answers. Instead, we call anyone who questions the “sky is falling” narrative selfish, stupid, and irresponsible because aligning with the prevailing moral outrage renders us impervious to criticism.
And I don’t recognize us. That is not who we are.
We are Americans. We are innovative, resourceful, diverse, and dynamic. We are capable of addressing both the lethality of COVID and our economic stability. We are capable of protecting the sick and the vulnerable without requiring the world to come to a standstill with no idea how to restart it.
The most valuable tool we need in order to perform metaphorical surgery on this outbreak is accurate information. And to get that information, we have to be open to the idea that some of our fundamental assumptions about COVID-19 are wrong.
Thomas P Seager, PhD contributed to this story.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... zrAxMS5wYY
Thank you RBG wherever you are!
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
Please provide source citation? I’d like to know who wrote that - in part so I can determine how far up their ass their head is wedged.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan
~ Carl Sagan
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
My bullshit detector is redlining...
The way these "loans" are structured, so long as the small businesses in question keep their employees on the payroll and continue to maintain whatever health plan they have, the loans are 100% forgiven and the company incurs no debt whatsoever...
It's a great deal for the companies, (allowing them to stay in business at no cost even when shut down,and putting them in a position to "snap back" quickly when conditions permit with their experienced, trained existing work force still intact) and a smart investment from the government's point of view (much more efficient for keeping people supported then having all these employees on the unemployment rolls)
I don't have time to deconstruct the rest of the piece, but if the author is prepared to lie so flagrantly about something that is fairly well publicly known, it's a safe bet that there's a lot more in there that's pure road apples...
That's a blatant lie...Small businesses are being forced to choose between closing their doors and incurring crippling long-term debt.
The way these "loans" are structured, so long as the small businesses in question keep their employees on the payroll and continue to maintain whatever health plan they have, the loans are 100% forgiven and the company incurs no debt whatsoever...
It's a great deal for the companies, (allowing them to stay in business at no cost even when shut down,and putting them in a position to "snap back" quickly when conditions permit with their experienced, trained existing work force still intact) and a smart investment from the government's point of view (much more efficient for keeping people supported then having all these employees on the unemployment rolls)
I don't have time to deconstruct the rest of the piece, but if the author is prepared to lie so flagrantly about something that is fairly well publicly known, it's a safe bet that there's a lot more in there that's pure road apples...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
She has zero expertise required to be making such sweeping pronouncements and unfounded conclusions.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
-- Author unknown
-- Author unknown
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
Which would be a good reason for Medium to have taken it down from their site.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."
-- Author unknown
-- Author unknown
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
Scooter wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:19 pmShe has zero expertise required to be making such sweeping pronouncements and unfounded conclusions.
As I suspected.
I also don’t believe her story about not being able to get a necessary scan - Arizona just issued a stay at home order late this past week, so if she dilly-dallied over getting a scan to some degree it’s her own fault. Second, nobody around here where there is a covid19 hot spot is refusing necessary care like time-sensitive cancer screening scans such as she describes, especially since the test does not implicate the potential need for a ventilator or ICU bed. I think that bit is made up (maybe not the cancer, but the inability to get critically necessary care).
She also glosses over entirely the fact that the United States was experiencing a particularly bad influenza season 2019-2020 before covid came on the scene, and doctors DO know the difference and DO test routinely for influenza with very reliable tests - it’s a bit of magical thinking to assume that serious respiratory illness that was circulating late fall and early winter was covid and not influenza - if it was, why did people only start dying at such an accelerated rate in recent weeks?
Just another wanna-be Hemingway clogging the blogosphere.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan
~ Carl Sagan
-
MajGenl.Meade
- Posts: 20748
- Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 8:51 am
- Location: Groot Brakrivier
- Contact:
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
To say the least...She has zero expertise required to be making such sweeping pronouncements and unfounded conclusions.
Gee whiz Darren, maybe next you can cite a Gypsy fortune teller for your "good news" report...
Or a water diviner...
Or an Ancient Alien Theorist...
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Econoline
- Posts: 9557
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 6:25 pm
- Location: DeKalb, Illinois...out amidst the corn, soybeans, and Republicans
Re: Day 8 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.
It seems to me that this test, which you touted earlier (in yet another of your rapidly-multiplying threads) would be useful to determine how many of Dr. Zelenko's patients actually had COVID-19 and how many just had "coronaviruslike symptoms".Darren wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:04 pmIt's still working.
"IMPORTANT UPDATE (April 3): In an exclusive interview, Dr. Zelenko provides a major update about the results of his COVID-19 patients: 700 coronavirus patients treated with 99.9% success rate using Hydroxychloroquine, 1 outpatient died after not following protocol.
Last Wednesday, we published the success story from Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a board-certified family practitioner in New York, after he successfully treated 350 coronavirus patients with 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate. Dr. Zelenko said he saw the symptom of shortness of breath resolved within four to six hours after treatment."
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr- ... ak-update/
People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
— God @The Tweet of God
— God @The Tweet of God