Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

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MajGenl.Meade
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Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

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For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Crackpot
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Crackpot »

And here I thought Darren decided to be a little intellectually honest and decided to get his day number Myers in line with his predictions
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Gob »

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“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

Darren
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

I'm seeing more discussions of the failure of the models and a corresponding comparison of case load vs. government actions to limit exposure.

More doctors are suggesting alternative treatments. In general I'm amazed at how much effort has been coordinated and independently made to defeat the virus.

A vaccine is already being tested in animals in the US. Antibodies are already being collected to treat new patients. People are still confused over the difference between chloroquine and hydroxycloroquine to the extent agencies are making bad decisions.

Meanwhile stories of survival from using hydroxycloroquine are being reported at the local level. I'm particularly amazed at analysis by doctor and nurse friends that have also put their thinking caps on in a manner of thinking.

An example is a nurse that's into biochemistry and constantly posts about how various drugs and supplements act at the cellular level. Her most recent observation is a comment on a doctor's suggestion that an anticoagulant is another choice.

After all of that I'm not aware of any reduction in the level of panic. I'm seeing many more people wearing masks in public including some of the Amish. I'll check toilet paper supplies later today.

I think Walmart may be skewing distribution based on store sales. Small store, not much toilet paper delivered. Larger store, more delivered which makes sense.

That may favor urban areas over rural areas. Are urban dwellers more susceptible to panic? Do they shop more often? Are rural residents less susceptible to panic. I think so.

Is Walmart actively trying to reduce the panic in more populous areas?

Bentonville works in mysterious ways.
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

More good news. This time it's from Amarillo, Texas.

"

"AMARILLO, Texas (KFDA) - An Amarillo woman who tested positive for COVID-19 is now considered recovered and is sharing her story in an effort to show others how serious the disease is.

I was totally out of control, there’s not anything I could do,” said Laura Taylor. “It was the worst two weeks of my life, I’ll just say that.”"

"

“I started getting a really bad headache,” said Taylor. “Then the headache went from a cough, to sore throat, to nausea, to really bad fatigue… real bad fatigue. It just continually, progressively got worse. I also had a low grade fever. The low grade fever was like 99 to 100 for about six days, and then day six was when it got really bad.”

It wasn’t until she was given hydroxychloroquine, a drug used to treat Malaria, that things started looking up.

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/04/03/it-was ... qxtdvRubUo

“After I started taking the Malaria medicine, I started to feel a lot better,” she said. “Like, the next day.”"
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Excellent news from Germany!

"Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.

Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.

The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... 1586454046
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Scooter
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Scooter »

Once again, expressing the death rate as a percentage of a larger denominator doesn't magically mean that fewer people will die.
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Scooter wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:20 pm
Once again, expressing the death rate as a percentage of a larger denominator doesn't magically mean that fewer people will die.
That's true. The point is having a true percentage that can be compared to other causes of death rather than a HOLY CRAP WE'RE GOING TO DIE percentage.
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Darren wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:14 pm
After all of that I'm not aware of any reduction in the level of panic. I'm seeing many more people wearing masks in public including some of the Amish. I'll check toilet paper supplies later today.

I think Walmart may be skewing distribution based on store sales. Small store, not much toilet paper delivered. Larger store, more delivered which makes sense.

That may favor urban areas over rural areas. Are urban dwellers more susceptible to panic? Do they shop more often? Are rural residents less susceptible to panic. I think so.

Is Walmart actively trying to reduce the panic in more populous areas?

Bentonville works in mysterious ways.
So wearing masks during a pandemic is a sign of panic?   Well, when I ride my bike I wear a helmet, and if rain is forecast I have been known to carry an umbrella or a raincoat.  Am I panicking too?  Or am I just making a decision based on available data and my own personal choices?

Overhoarding toilet paper could be considered a sign of panic, but I think it's more likely a matter of what the kids nowadays call FOMO — the Fear Of Missing Out — or the public following the adage of "monkey see, monkey do" ....'if someone else is stocking up on something, maybe I'd better get some too.'
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

You have a point Bill. I'd add, who knew the pandemic would create gun sales records? How many guns does one person need? Are the sales indicative of first time buyers?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... h-n1176451
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

More great news from Abbott labs who is making smaller test equipment available to get test results in less than five minutes.

I wonder if these are the units Walgreen is using.

"Because of its small size, it can be used in more non-traditional places where people can have their results in a matter of minutes, bringing an alternate testing technology to combat the novel coronavirus.

We're ramping up production to deliver 50,000 ID NOW COVID-19 tests per day, beginning next week, to the U.S. healthcare system.

This comes on the heels of our announcement last week of the availability of the Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 EUA test under FDA EUA, which runs on m2000 RealTime molecular system for centralized lab environments. Combined with ID NOW, Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests in April."

https://www.abbott.com/corpnewsroom/pro ... nutes.html
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Darren
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Scooter wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:20 pm
Once again, expressing the death rate as a percentage of a larger denominator doesn't magically mean that fewer people will die.
Looks like the percentage will get smaller. What a novel idea. Check the sewage.

"The researchers, along with a team from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard, and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, analyzed the samples and found the number of coronavirus particles was on par with if there were 2,300 people infected with the virus.

But at the time of tests, there were only 446 confirmed cases in the region, according to the study."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/coronavir ... astewater/
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Joe Guy »

Testing 1,2,3.... does this test work?
Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

“While we are putting more weight on reactivation as the possible cause, we are conducting a comprehensive study on this,” Jeong said. “There have been many cases when a patient during treatment will test negative one day and positive another.”

A patient is deemed fully recovered when two tests conducted with a 24-hour interval show negative results.

The Korean CDC will conduct an epidemiological probe into the cases, Jeong said.

South Korea was one of the earliest countries to see a large-scale coronavirus outbreak, but the country has seen just 200 deaths and a falling new case tally since peaking at 1,189 on Feb. 29. One of the world’s most expansive testing programs and a tech-driven approach to tracing infections has seen Korea contain its epidemic without lockdowns or shuttering businesses.

Fear of re-infection in recovered patients is also growing in China, where the virus first emerged last December, after reports that some tested positive again -- and even died from the disease -- after supposedly recovering and leaving hospital. There’s little understanding of why this happens, although some believe that the problem may lie in inconsistencies in test results.

As of Wednesday, South Korea had 10,384 virus cases, with 6,776 released from hospital, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News.

Epidemiologists around the world are in a race to find out more about the virus that causes Covid-19. The pathogen’s rapid global spread has recently seen the focus shift to patients who contract the virus but display few or atypical symptoms. Korea has been at the forefront of tracking these cases, which are causing particular concern in China, where the epidemic is showing signs of coming under control.
source

Darren
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Yep! We can expect a second round and maybe a third.
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

On a ship when the captain departs or arrives one of the watch standers rings a bell four times (ding, ding ... ding, ding) and then announces via the 1MC (PA system) the name of the ship and either arriving or departing.

On DDG-23 the announcement was Richard E. Bryd departing or arriving. Not "Dickie Byrd departing" which one boatswain seaman announced one day and caused an immediate about face by the captain and his return to ship. A captains mass resulted soon after.

Therefore: DING, DING ... DING. DING Panic departing.

"Gov. Jay Inslee's office on Wednesday announced that the state will be returning a field hospital deployed to CenturyLink Field Event Center to the U.S. Department of Defense.

The 250-bed facility, for which setup began on March 30, was intended to help Washington state's health care system tend to non Covid-19 patients in the event of a hospital surge.

But just three days after announcing the facility was ready to receive patients, officials say they're returning the hospital to the federal government."

https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington ... OXUnFJAXXk
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Scooter »

Darren wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:56 pm
Scooter wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:20 pm
Once again, expressing the death rate as a percentage of a larger denominator doesn't magically mean that fewer people will die.
Looks like the percentage will get smaller. What a novel idea. Check the sewage.

"The researchers, along with a team from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard, and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, analyzed the samples and found the number of coronavirus particles was on par with if there were 2,300 people infected with the virus.

But at the time of tests, there were only 446 confirmed cases in the region, according to the study."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/coronavir ... astewater/
And yet that made absolutely zero difference in the number of people sick enough to be hospitalized, or the number of people who died. Those numbers do not magically shrink just because someone thinks there may be more virus circulating that we know about.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

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Scooter
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Scooter »

Darren wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:55 am
"Gov. Jay Inslee's office on Wednesday announced that the state will be returning a field hospital deployed to CenturyLink Field Event Center to the U.S. Department of Defense.

The 250-bed facility, for which setup began on March 30, was intended to help Washington state's health care system tend to non Covid-19 patients in the event of a hospital surge.

But just three days after announcing the facility was ready to receive patients, officials say they're returning the hospital to the federal government."

https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington ... OXUnFJAXXk
The facility did not see any patients during the time it was slated to operate in Seattle.
If they restricted who could be treated similarly to the USNS Comfort, it's no wonder they found it useless and released it. There's no point in relying on a medical facility that refuses to treat almost everything except ingrown toenails and gonorrhea.
"If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu."

-- Author unknown

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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Darren wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:55 am
On DDG-23 the announcement was Richard E. Bryd departing or arriving. Not "Dickie Byrd departing" which one boatswain seaman announced one day and caused an immediate about face by the captain and his return to ship. A captains mass resulted soon after.
Captains mass, eh?  I guess that's only for sailors who identify as 'Catholic'.

I've never been in the navy, but even I know the term is "captain's mast".
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Bicycle Bill wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:29 am
Darren wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:55 am
On DDG-23 the announcement was Richard E. Bryd departing or arriving. Not "Dickie Byrd departing" which one boatswain seaman announced one day and caused an immediate about face by the captain and his return to ship. A captains mass resulted soon after.
Captains mass, eh?  I guess that's only for sailors who identify as 'Catholic'.

I've never been in the navy, but even I know the term is "captain's mast".
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-"BB"-
You are correct. It was still a "Man was that so & so who just fucked up?"
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Darren
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Re: Day 4 in the countdown to an end to the COVID-19 panic.

Post by Darren »

Another sign?

"STOCKED UP: U.S. consumers are still buying more groceries than usual, but the panic buying that took place in mid-March has slowed."

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trav ... 03546.html
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