Light at the end of the tunnel: the vaccine
Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:37 pm
Fauci has been in the news in the last week with an optimistic take on a vaccine being ready for use by early 2021 (with the normal provisos). This is consistent with what I hear from investment managers who have their own medical experts -- the vaccine = economic recovery = more profits = positive investment returns -- and investing the billions in their charge accordingly. These are serious people not prone to phony optimism or making a sales pitch. So, if they are right and a vaccine is on the way, it seems policy should follow:
1. Try to limit the spread while still being as "open" as possible. But clearly, being more cautious makes sense if you are highly confident there is an end in sight. So, yes, be cautious with school opening, fall sports, and bars, restaurants and entertainment, etc.
2. Prop up the economy, with a priority to provide aid to those who have been hammered by the shut down, though, for the life of me I don't know how it can be justified to pay people more not to work than they were making when they worked (UE benefits should be capped at 100% of actual pay).
3. I am guessing the U.S. will not be the first country to be providing a vaccine. Should be interesting to see how other countries deal with the same dynamic, as well as how that will affect the rollout.
We are into our sixth month of dealing with this, and there has been a lot of success when there has been the appropriate focus. If the target is another six months and we can begin to get back to our normal, that is doable in the minds of most people. In contrast, if there is an open-ended time when the virus will be handled, then it is fair to ask what is the point of all the sacrifice? Fortunately, it looks like we are looking at the former scenario.
1. Try to limit the spread while still being as "open" as possible. But clearly, being more cautious makes sense if you are highly confident there is an end in sight. So, yes, be cautious with school opening, fall sports, and bars, restaurants and entertainment, etc.
2. Prop up the economy, with a priority to provide aid to those who have been hammered by the shut down, though, for the life of me I don't know how it can be justified to pay people more not to work than they were making when they worked (UE benefits should be capped at 100% of actual pay).
3. I am guessing the U.S. will not be the first country to be providing a vaccine. Should be interesting to see how other countries deal with the same dynamic, as well as how that will affect the rollout.
We are into our sixth month of dealing with this, and there has been a lot of success when there has been the appropriate focus. If the target is another six months and we can begin to get back to our normal, that is doable in the minds of most people. In contrast, if there is an open-ended time when the virus will be handled, then it is fair to ask what is the point of all the sacrifice? Fortunately, it looks like we are looking at the former scenario.