Let's Make 2022 Predictions!

[Burning Petard]

The academic expert on this now seems to be Robert Pape at the University of Chicago. He has been extensively quoted in Atlantic and New Yorker magazine, and various NPR programs. His speciality seems to be right wing violence around the world. He says the data is clear--the Jan 6 event last year was from mainstream America. This was not right-wing fringe. One statistic of his that has been widely cited: The more a particular county voted for Trump, the less likely it was to send participants to this Jan 6 event.

No general consensus as to what to call it-- riot, rebellion, attack, revolution, civil war. demonstration?

snailgate

[Gob]

My predictions?

The Tories will dump Bojo, put Sunak in his place, call an election. Tories will win with a slightly reduced majority.

The EU will suffer a financial meltdown, due to Italy not meeting its contributions, and France and Spain elect a hard right wing President.

The US will continue to go stark staring loopy.

Covid will continue to take out more and more stupid people

I will continue to live a life of blissful contentment...

[ex-khobar Andy]

The academic expert on this now seems to be Robert Pape at the University of Chicago. He has been extensively quoted in Atlantic and New Yorker magazine, and various NPR programs. His speciality seems to be right wing violence around the world. He says the data is clear--the Jan 6 event last year was from mainstream America. This was not right-wing fringe. One statistic of his that has been widely cited: The more a particular county voted for Trump, the less likely it was to send participants to this Jan 6 event.

(My bolding.). I could not find that specific statistic but I don't doubt it. A lot more people voted for Biden than forTrump so it's likely. And probably if you live in solid Trump country, you have more of your neighbors willing to validate your views; and if you don't, you have to travel to find others who tell you that you are right. I did see a quote from Pape that the majority of those arrested were from cities who had voted for Biden such as NYC and LA etc, and similar a majority were business owners and doctors and lawyers and such. Not quite your archetypal Trumpists.

[liberty]

We should know before the year is out whether Putin is serious about re-establishing the Russian empire. He can’t have a better opportunity than the present. The United States is the obstacle; however, we have a corrupt coward for president. As I see it, the only thing stopping him from taking Ukraine is some concern about economic sanctions, but if he’s serious, it would seem that would be a price he would be willing to pay. I suspect the Russian to lose many troops; the Ukrainians will resist; however, one can never be sure how much resistance there will be and how effective the opposition will be. That is the thing about war; it’s unpredictable. Russia will pay for invading, and it will primarily be due to one person Donald Trump; he sold the Ukrainians weapons when Obama wouldn’t.

I suspect he’s waiting for and hoping for a very cold winter in Western Europe; his threat to cut off the gas to West Germany should be enough to keep them out of the fight. And the Germans are no severe threat against Russia. They have a few tough individuals, but for the most part they are pathetic dick suckers. Yeah, I said that to indicate how little respect I have for them.


If I were Putin, I would have the Belarusian attack and occupied one of the tiny Baltic countries. Can you guess why he would have an ally invade and not Russia? If Putin and his allies invade and occupy a NATO country, they proved the NATO alliances to be a lie, and that would be the end of the story.

[MajGenl.Meade]

lib, lib.

we have a corrupt coward for president.

We keep reminding you that Trump DID NOT win and is NOT president!

[ex-khobar Andy]

During Obama's time, the US military were opposed to selling weapons to Ukraine because they did not want the latest technology to fall into Russian hands. These days, the US has no effective counter to a Putin-led annexation of the rest of Ukraine. The country will never support our boys going over there for a shooting war; and economic sanctions against Russia will hurt no-one there - the Chinese will still sell them stuff (I was in Moscow 25 years ago and all I saw in the markets apart from food was Chinese) - and much of Europe who buy gas from Russia will have to cool their heels.

[Jarlaxle]

Why, exactly, is this our problem? Long past time to walk away and let them figure it out.

[BoSoxGal]

Why, exactly, is this our problem? Long past time to walk away and let them figure it out.

No big deal if corrupt communism aka oligarchy marches across the globe again? Have you visited Russia or China? Is that really the kind of regime you’d like to live under?

Oh wait, I forgot - you’re a MAGA fan. Of course you’re not bothered by autocracy. As long as it’s an autocrat you admire. Good luck with that.

[Jarlaxle]

Why, exactly, is this our problem? Long past time to walk away and let them figure it out.

No big deal if corrupt communism aka oligarchy marches across the globe again? Have you visited Russia or China? Is that really the kind of regime you’d like to live under?

Oh wait, I forgot - you’re a MAGA fan. Of course you’re not bothered by autocracy. As long as it’s an autocrat you admire. Good luck with that.

How many Americans are you willing to get killed? How much are you willing to spend? My answer is, "None, and nothing." It's decades past time to stop trying to be world police. It never works and is often counterproductive.

Walk away and let them figure it out.