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The future .... is here.

Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:47 pm
by rubato
Back in 2006 we had a group of researchers from UC Berkeley come and give a day-long seminar on solar power. It was apparent then that for a lot of the 2nd and third world it would soon make economic sense to install local micro-solar projects dedicated to the highest-value uses; lighting and refrigerating pharmaceuticals (for two).

That future is already here.

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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1O2FFD.DTL

Power shifts as off-grid options spread worldwide

Ben Sills, Natalie Obiko Pearson,Stefan Nicola

Kuni Takahashi / Bloomberg

Anand peels betel nuts under lights powered by a Simpa Networks solar unit at his house in the Indian village of Halliberu. The rice farmer pays about $1 a week via his cell phone to keep the lights on and expects to have the system paid off in three years.

On a January evening, Anand is shelling betel nuts by the light of an electric lamp in Halliberu, his village in India's Karnataka state.

As his friends gather on the lamp-lit porch to swap stories, children play in the yard. Inside, after decades of cooking in the dark, Anand's mother prepares the evening meal while a visiting neighbor weaves garlands of flowers.

In October, Bangalore's Simpa Networks installed a solar panel on Anand's whitewashed adobe house along with a small metal box in his living room to monitor electricity usage. The 25-year-old rice farmer, who goes by one name, purchases energy credits to unlock the system via his mobile phone on a pay-as-you-go model.

When his balance runs low, Anand pays about $1 - money he would have otherwise spent on kerosene. Then he receives a text message with a code to punch into the box, giving him about another week of electric light. When he pays off the full cost of the system in about three years, it will be unlocked and he will get free power.

Before the solar panel arrived, Anand lit his home with kerosene lamps that streaked the walls with smoke and barely penetrated the darkness of the village, which lacks electrification. Twice a week, he trudged 45 minutes to a nearby town just to charge his phone.

"Things are much easier now," Anand says, describing how he used to go through 1 gallon of fuel a month, almost half of it bought from the black market at four times the price of government kerosene rations. "There was never enough."

Crest of a revolution

Anand is on the crest of an electricity revolution that's sweeping through power markets and threatening traditional utilities' dominance of the world's supply.

From the poorest parts of Africa and Asia to the most-developed regions in the United States and Europe, solar units such as Anand's and small-scale wind and biomass generators promise to extend access to power to more people than ever before. In the developing world, they're slashing costs in the process.

Across India and Africa, startups and mobile phone companies are developing what are called called microgrids, in which stand-alone generators power clusters of homes and businesses in places where electric utilities have never operated.

In Europe, cooperatives are building their own generators and selling power back to the national or regional grid while information technology developers and phone companies are helping consumers reduce their power consumption and pay less for the electricity they do use.
'Power to the people'

The revolution is just beginning, says Jeremy Rifkin, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and author of "The Third Industrial Revolution."

Disruptive to the economic status quo, the transformation opens up huge opportunities to consumers who may find themselves trading power in the future much as they swap information over the Internet today, he says.

"This is power to the people," says Rifkin, who was once best known as a leading opponent of the Vietnam War.

India has 30 gigawatts of mainly diesel generators that could be replaced by cheaper solar power tomorrow, says Tarun Kapoor, joint secretary at the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. (A gigawatt is enough energy to power about 200,000 U.S. homes.)

Within a decade, installing photovoltaic panels may be cheaper for many families than buying power from national grids in much of the world, including the United States, Japan, Brazil and the United Kingdom, according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The ultimate losers in this shifting balance of power may be established utilities. They've invested billions of dollars in centralized networks that are slowly being edged out of markets they've dominated.

Ben Sills, Natalie Obiko Pearson and Stefan Nicola are Bloomberg writers. bsills@bloomberg.net, npearson7@bloomberg.net, snicola2@bloomberg.net

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... z1s9E1IFl7

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yrs,
rubato

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:51 pm
by rubato
Example #2

http://content.yudu.com/A1wa6h/SolarIss ... appeal.php

Sorry I can't paste the text here. It is about a community-level photovoltaic system in the Cape Verde islands.

One of the great things about solar is that it is so directly scaleable.

yrs,
rubato

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:25 am
by dales
Except at night.

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:53 pm
by Rick
Good for them and good luck :clap:

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:18 am
by rubato
dales wrote:Except at night.
Maybe some day, far in the future, we will invent devices which can store electrical energy by using the oxidation-reduction potentials of materials.

We can only hope.

For now he'll just have to live with lighting during the daytime.

yrs,
rubato

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:40 am
by Lord Jim
Solar power currently accounts for less than 1 percent of electricity production in the United States.[1] In 2008, solar accounted for less than 1 percent of global electricity generation.[2]
http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/solar
Solar energy currently provides less than 0.1 percent of the electricity generated in the United States
Read more: http://www.motherearthnews.com/Renewabl ... z1sFmyNBVa

Image

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:47 pm
by rubato
For a person in business the difference between the currently installed base and the amount which is economically probable is called "the size of the opportunity". It is how businesses and individuals with billions of dollars to invest decide where to put their money. If the currently installed base were 20% then the opportunity would be smaller, less interesting, and far less valuable. This is an area which can ultimately grow by more than an order of magnitude.

In the case of solar power it is why TSMC is investing hundreds of millions to BEGIN manufacturing solar in an era of brutal price competition and overall capacity grew by 40% last year.

As awareness of the negative effects of global warming gradually erode the US Republican anti-science and pro-ignorance orthodoxy the trend will only continue.

yrs,
rubato

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:23 pm
by dgs49
Solar power is only economically feasible in tropical climates. In the temperate zones (where the most productive societies live) it will never be more than a novelty, and will never be economically feasible (i.e., self supporting without huge government infusion of funds), due to the amazing efficiency of burning readily available carbon-based fuels. Approximately the same can be said about wind, tidal, and other novelty sources of electricity, which can never provide "base load" energy, due to their intermittent nature.

Being heavily vested in nuclear power at the moment (and I mean that literally), I personally wonder how the tree huggers feel about the fact that both Germany and Japan will be forced by public stupidity to shift from clean, safe, cheap, nuclear power to burning coal and natural gas, and thus promoting the end of life on earth, as we know it.

Or at least, if you believe the nonsense about "Global Warming."

It's funny, actually. What is Greenpeace to do? Promote a return to Nuclear Power or advocate the end of the world? A true dilemma, what?

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:43 pm
by Grim Reaper
dgs49 wrote:and will never be economically feasible
If only there was this steady march of progress in technology...
dgs49 wrote:self supporting without huge government infusion of funds
And how much did the US oil companies receive? Hmm, just $4 billion last year. Must be tough going for them. Wonder how long they'd survive without their "huge government infusion of funds".
dgs49 wrote:I personally wonder how the tree huggers feel about the fact that both Germany and Japan will be forced by public stupidity to shift from clean, safe, cheap, nuclear power to burning coal and natural gas, and thus promoting the end of life on earth, as we know it.
The rational people are for more enforced safety features, but I guess it's easier to construct a strawman when you don't really know what you're talking about. Fukushima would have fared much better had they not cut costs during construction or if Japan's nuclear regulation agencies had any real power.
dgs49 wrote:Or at least, if you believe the nonsense about "Global Warming."
I guess you'll wait until the proof arrives for all to see, so you can then start crying about why the Democrats let this get so bad.

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:57 pm
by Sean
rubato wrote:
dales wrote:Except at night.
Maybe some day, far in the future, we will invent devices which can store electrical energy by using the oxidation-reduction potentials of materials.

We can only hope.

For now he'll just have to live with lighting during the daytime.

yrs,
rubato
Why does the sun shine during the day? It'd be much better if it shone at night when we could do with the extra light...

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:13 am
by dales
I've been north of the Arctic Circle in the summer......an ideal place for millions of solar panels, if you ask me! :ok

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:45 am
by Lord Jim
One thing that really cracks me up about the solar power lobby are their yanked out of the butt wild assed "projections" about what percentage of US will come from solar energy in "the future" that same sourec that I cited earlier that was at least honest enough to admit that solar power currently provides a less than meager "less than .1% of US power" also contains this doosie:

a new report finds that solar power's contribution could grow to 10 percent of the nation's power needs by 2025.
Read more: http://www.motherearthnews.com/Renewabl ... z1sLcXJ1QH

A hundred fold increase in just 13 years?

LMAO :lol:

Sheesh, if you must lie, could please try to tell lies that are at least minimally plausible, rather than insulting the readers intelligence with whoppers like that?

There a better chance that 10% of the US population will have this as their primary mode of transportation in 2025:

Image

Than that the US will get 10% of it's energy needs from solar power by then....

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:49 am
by Sean
Is that a solar powered jet pack?

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:17 am
by Crackpot
Jim if the price drops sufficiently it could happen.

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:15 am
by Sean
Yes but have you considered entropy?

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:38 am
by Gob
No such thing as ents.

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:10 pm
by Econoline
40 years ago, I wonder what the projections were for the percentage of families in the economically developed world which would own a "personal computer"? (Or a "mobile telephone"?)

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:18 pm
by rubato
Japan has gone from 30% Nuclear power to zero in one year:

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/ ... 6V20120417
Japan to be without nuclear power after May 5

By Yoko Kubota

TOKYO, April 17 | Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:28am EDT

(Reuters) - Japan will within weeks have no nuclear power for the first time in more than 40 years, after the trade minister said two reactors idled after the Fukushima disaster would not be back online before the last one currently operating is shut down.

Trade Minister Yukio Edano signalled it would take at least several weeks before the government, keen to avoid a power crunch, can give a final go-ahead to restarts, meaning Japan is set on May 6 to mark its first nuclear power-free day since 1970.

"If we thoroughly go through the procedure, it would be (on or) after May 6 even if we could restart them," Edano told a news conference, adding that whether they can actually be brought back online is still up to ongoing discussions.

The crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, where a huge earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 triggered radiation leaks, has hammered public faith in nuclear power and prevented the restart of reactors shut down for regular maintenance checks, with all but one of 54 reactors now offline.

Nuclear power accounted for about 30 percent of Japan's electricity demand before the Fukushima crisis.
... "
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Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:38 pm
by rubato
Another large opportunity is to provide solar units which can provide energy for cooking. Global warming (and the anti-science party) aside one of the largest environmental problems is deforestation in Africa and Asia due to people collecting wood and either burning it directly or making it into charcoal for cooking. Solar cooking units will be larger than the micro-solar in the above article for lighting and might need to be shared by several family groups but the Cape Verde example shows that it can be economically viable and that local communities can make the necessary social adjustments:

page 14

http://www.solar-international.net/pdf/ ... sue_II.pdf

There is a large multiplier effect when wood is replaced by solar as well. First, each family now spends many hours each day and walks long distances to get fuel. That time and energy will be avail. for more beneficial activities which can reduce poverty. Second, a valuable resource is being destroyed often at the cost of species which are near extinction like the mountain gorillas: an irreplaceable loss.

yrs,
rubato

Re: The future .... is here.

Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:44 pm
by rubato
As Solyndra illustrates, photovoltaic will be a challenging business to be in but with a high growth rate and a large basis ($93 Billion) it remains a very attractive area for investment and will continue to be so for some time. Installing solar systems can go a long way to reducing unemployment.


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"...
The PV industry generated $93 billion in global revenues in 2011, up 12% Y/Y, while the
industry successfully raised more than $8 billion in corporate equity and debt. Of the
more than 100 countries worldwide covered in Marketbuzz, the top five PV markets
were Germany, Italy, China, the United States, and France—74% of global demand in
2011. China soared 470% Y/Y, rising from to third place from seventh in 2010. European
countries accounted for 18.7 GW, or 68% of world demand in 2011, down from 82% in
2010. Strong growth in France and Italy, combined with a year-end surge in German
demand that held it flat Y/Y, meant that Germany, Italy and France collectively
accounted for 82% of the European market. Worldwide solar cell production reached
29.5 GW in 2011, up from 23.0
GW a year earlier, with thin film
production accounting for 11% of
total production. Production from
China and Taiwan accounted for
74% of global cell production, up
from 63% in the prior year.
... "

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