Boston Marathon Bomb Attack?!?!?

[Guinevere]

http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/2013/04 ... story.html

Boston officials said today the Tsarnaev brothers were prepared to launch more violent attacks before their odyssey of terror was disrupted last week — given the large quantity of explosives and ammunition they possessed — but that all evidence thus far indicates they were acting alone and were not part of a broader conspiracy.

“All of the information I have is they acted alone, these two individuals, the brothers,’’ Mayor Thomas M. Menino said on ABC’s “This Week.’’

“The older brother’s dead now. We have the second one ... in very serious condition,’’ he said. In an apparent reference to his medical condition, he added, “We don’t know if we’ll ever be able to question the individual.”

Menino’s comment only fueled more questions about the medical condition of the younger suspect, Dzhokar Tsarnaev, who is listed as as serious but stable at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center with undisclosed injuries.

On Saturday, Governor Deval Patrick said the young man was not able to be interviewed. Speaking on “This Week’’ today, Senator Dan Coats of Indiana, a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Committee, said, “The information we have is that there was a shot to the throat, and it’s questionable when and whether he’ll be able to talk again. Doesn’t mean he can’t communicate. But right now I think he’s in a condition where they can’t get any information from him at all.”

Menino and other top Massachusetts officials fanned out across the Sunday talk shows to discuss the aftermath of Monday’s Boston Marathon bombings, the worst terrorist attack in the United States since 2001, and where the investigation may go from here.

Boston Police Commissioner Edward F. Davis said he believes Dzhokhar and his older brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev, who was killed in an exchange of gunfire early Friday morning in Watertown with police, were armed for another rampage following the Monday bombing attacks.

“They had IEDS,” Davis said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation,’’ referring to improvised explosive devices. “They had homemade hand grenades that they were throwing at the officers. The scene was littered with unexploded improvised explosive devices that we had to point out to the arriving officers,” including one in the abandoned SUV the brothers had allegedly stolen.

Davis said today that federal authorities are trying to trace the origin of the firearms and explosive devices employed by the two suspects. “We hope to try to find out exactly where they obtained” the arsenal, he said.

Asked about any further threat to the public, Governor Deval Patrick, also appearing on “Face the Nation,’’ said “all of law enforcement feels it is over. … You can feel the relief here at home.”

On NBC’s “Meet the Press,’’ Patrick said surveillance video showed Dzhokhar Tsarnaev dropping a backpack and walking away before the second bomb exploded.

‘‘It does seem to be pretty clear that this suspect took the backpack off, put it down, did not react when the first explosion went off and then moved away from the backpack in time for the second explosion,’’ Patrick said. ‘‘It’s pretty clear about his involvement and pretty chilling, frankly.’’

Many questions still remain in the investigation, including whether the FBI paid sufficient attention to Tamerlan Tsarnaev in 2011 after the agency was alerted by Russian authorities that he might have been under the sway of militant Islamic radicals.

“He was on the radar, then he got off the radar,” said Representative Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee and a Republican of Texas.

McCaul said 26-year-old Tamerlan’s six-month trip last year to Russia, where officials have speculated he may have been trained or influenced by terrorist groups in the restive provinces of Dagestan or neighboring Chechnya, looms very large in the ongoing probe.

“That six and half months becomes exceedingly important,” he said. “I would assume the Russians have some intelligence on this individual.”

Others werecritical of the FBI’s handling of the case, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican of South carolina, who said he believes the FBI may have “dropped the ball.”

“Once you’re brought to attention by a foreign government, I think you should have a red flag put then, to be taken off later,” Graham said on CNN. “The ball was dropped in one of two ways — the FBI missed a lot of things, [or] there’s one potential answer [that] our laws do not allow to follow up in a sound solid way. There was a lot to be learned from this guy. He was on websites talking about killing Americans. He went overseas ... he was clearly talking about radical ideas. He was visiting radical areas.”

“The fact that we could not track him has to be fixed,” Graham added. “It’s people like this that you don’t want to let out of your sight, and this was a mistake. I don’t know if our laws are insufficient or the FBI failed, but we’re at war with radical Islamists and we need to up our game.”

Menino said it has become clear that the older brother, Tamerlan, was the more influential, describing him the “leader” and the 19-year-old Dzhokhar as a “follower.”

“His [older] brother read those magazines that are published on how to create bombs…,” Menino said.

Menino defended the decision to ask Boston residents to remain in their homes and not venture onto streets on Friday, because of the potential threat of more violence and the ongoing manhunt for Dzhokhar.

“I had information that there was other things going on during the [time the] decision that was made,” he said. “At that time, we found a pipe bomb in another location in our city of Boston, another individual was taken into custody in another location.’’ He did not elaborate on the discovery of the other pipe bomb.

Patrick said separately on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he didn’t know when the younger Tsarnaev might be able to speak to authorities, but that investigators were ready to question him as soon as he could be interviewed.

“There are lots of questions about how and why,” Patrick added on CBS.

Whether Dzhokhar Tsarnaev will face the death penalty if convicted was another topic discussed Sunday. Senator William “Mo” Cowan, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, and Patrick said they would leave that decision to the Department of Justice.

Menino was asked if he would favor prosecution of Tsarnaev in federal court and whether he expected Tsarnaev to face the death penalty.

“I hope that the U.S. attorney, Carmen Ortiz, takes him on the federal side and throws the book at him,” Menino said.

[BoSoxGal]

I've spent a lot of time weeping and worrying this past week, initially worried for family/friends in the marathon, then for all my many family/friends who still reside in my 'hometown', a city my family helped build starting in the early 1600s.

I'm so proud of her and her people, and how all there have responded to this terrible series of events.

(I've even had to temper a lifelong loathing of the NYY, after they so publicly stood in solidarity with the BoSox & Boston this week, playing Sweet Caroline in Yankee Stadium!)

Anyway, just stopped in to ask that you all please consider donating, if you can, to the people most affected by these tragedies through the following links:

http://onefundboston.org/
http://oneheartboston.bigcartel.com/

Be strong, Boston. You do this daughter - and all your others - mighty proud!

PS - I'll lace on my sneaks next Patriot's Day to join you in thumbing our noses at terrorism - you've been on my bucket list a long time and I can't think of a better time to do it, finally.

[liberty]

Even with all of the tremendous effort on the part of the policy/FBI, and the diligence of the community, it still came down to the perpetrators making mistakes that led to their quick undoing. They had no getaway plan. If they had left Boston immediately after the bombing, it could have been weeks or months before they could have been found. Instead they stayed and the younger one went back to his college campus. They knew the authorities had their pictures from security cameras and yet they remained in Boston.

It was only after the public release of the pictures that they decided to leave. Then, instead of stealthily escaping, they kill a campus police officer and get away in a car they stole. The car-jacking made sense from their standpoint since they needed transportation and some money, but then they released the owner-hostage on a street corner and the information the hostage provides -- the car and license and location -- leads to the gun battle that kills the older one and injures the younger one.

The younger one is still able to get away despite the massive manhunt under way and eludes police. The police do an exhaustive door to door search but decide he must have escaped the area. When people are allowed out of their homes, an observant homeowner sees the open flap on his boat cover, another fortunate turn of events, and then the police are able to capture him.

Not sure of the point, but we can't take much comfort in their relatively quick capture/demise if two poorly prepared misfits are able to cause this massive amount of death, injury and mayhem; and but for their incompetence, maybe get away, despite the enormous effort by authorities and the community.

Incompetence? Wow, that's stunningly inaccurate.

They knew who the men were by face on Wednesday. Apparently they did not have IDs, or confirmed IDs at that point. The plan of releasing the photos to flush them out worked perfectly. Based on the Thursday night incident, they knew the kid was wounded (there were blood trails here and there) and they didn't think he could get very far. By shutting down all public transport, the city, and the surrounding towns, he was trapped. The perimeter in Watertown was set based on manpower as much as anything -- the Watertown Chief said they didn't have officers to make it any broader -- and its been all hands on deck since Monday (which is already an all hands on deck day, too). Five days to go from anonymous bombing to custody? I think that's pretty darn good. Five days later they don't even know what caused the fire/explosion at the fertilizer plant. Would you call those investigators incompetent?

I think the incompetence he is referring to is that of the bombers. For example, if they had worn hoodies and separated they could have reduced the possibility of being identified.

[Lord Jim]

I think based on what is now publicly known, that we have to draw a clear distinction between the younger brother, (herein after referred to as "White Cap") and the older brother, (herein after referred to as "Black Cap")

There's a lot of evidence to support the idea that Black Cap became Islamo-radicalized meeting a certain profile...(immigrating to this country, not having many friends, not fitting in...)

He was interrogated by the FBI in 2010....

Then Black Cap goes back and spends six months in the old country...(In an area known to have Jihadist training camps)

And then he comes back and nine months later, he carries out this attack...

It's pretty logical to assume that Black Cap was getting some training and expertise on how to build a bomb of this sort, and how to carry out an attack....(Of course that doesn't have to be the case...It could just be a remarkable coincidence...)

That doesn't mean the al-Qaeda associated organizations (Which in Chechnya there are several; just because we here in the US associate Chenyans with a fight against the Russians doesn't mean there aren't some who have become anti-Western Islamic Jihadists; numerous Chechnyans have been taken prisoner in battles in Afghanistan) were somehow behind this specific attack...

Only that it's quite reasonable to assume that they would have provided training, expertise, and additional motivation to someone who already seemed personally motivated, and well positioned (as a US resident) to be able to carry out an attack....

A "Jihadist of opportunity"...

I believe that based on what's already in the public record, the likelihood that this was a carefully planned out attack, organized, directed, and supported by some foreign terrorist organization, is pretty much close to non-existent....

(in fact it's counter intuitive to think that; if that had been the case, they'd have an exit plan that didn't involve robbing a 7-11, car jacking, and getting a guy they kidnapped to use his ATM card....that's not how true professionals generally operate...)

But I believe there's pretty strong evidence, given Black Cap's history, that this was a terrorist attack aided and abetted by foreign sources....

One of the most striking things about this is the professional way the bombs were constructed, and the bombings were carried out...

Versus the after bombing behavior and planning of the participants...

The first, very professional and well executed...

The second, very poorly and amateurishly executed; like "Keystone Jihadists"....

(There's been some suggestion made that since more bombs were found when they had the confrontation with the cop at MIT, that they were hanging around to conduct more bombings...but that still wouldn't explain why they wouldn't have enough cash on hand to get out of town when they were done with that...)

All of this suggests that there was "help" in a general sense for carrying this off, but not some sort of foreign directed plot...(or they'd have been provided with at least a few thousand dollars for getting out of town)

At this point, I think that the available public evidence suggests that Black Cap became a radicalized-Jhadist, and got some training from a foreign organization...

But there's no evidence that White Cap, (the one we have in custody) had anything to do with that....

In fact, there's a lot of evidence that "White Cap'" doesn't fit the "alienated to his new country" profile his brother did, and that his participation may have been more or less that of an ignorant stooge just doing what his brother told him to...

(that doesn't reduce his culpability for the murders he participated in, but it does impact on the intel he could provide....I suspect we'll get more out of Black Cap's laptop than we will out of interrogating White Cap....)

[Gob]

Aparently he's now giving written replies to the cops.

[Lord Jim]

Aparently he's now giving written replies to the cops.

They were talking on the news earlier today about taking this approach....

Both because a bullet wound in the throat has made it difficult for him to speak, but also because he might feel more comfortable "texting" and communicating that way...

I saw an FBI expert on one of the Sunday news shows this morning talking about how they might use that to establish a comfort zone for communication...

It's nice to see that law enforcement has become savvy enough to think that way...

[Long Run]

Not sure of the point, but we can't take much comfort in their relatively quick capture/demise if two poorly prepared misfits are able to cause this massive amount of death, injury and mayhem; and but for their incompetence, maybe get away, despite the enormous effort by authorities and the community.

Incompetence? Wow, that's stunningly inaccurate.
[/quote]

Not sure how you misread my sentence, other than it is as usual too long. I was referring to the murderers' incompetence in their getaway plans/efforts. I noted the huge effort and professionalism of the authorities. But even with that differentiation: good police work compared to incompetent criminals, the criminals almost escaped a quick capture.

I agree with LJ's thoughts: given the lack of planning by the murderers for what to do after the bombing, compared to the well planned nature of the attack, the theory that they had help in designing the attack makes sense.

[Guinevere]

2:50 PM today ET -- please take a moment to honor the victims and the responders.

One Minute of Silence Followed by Ringing of Bells Across the Region

Mayor Thomas M. Menino, Governor Deval L. Patrick, and One Fund Boston are calling upon Boston and all communities across the Commonwealth to join together in a Moment of Silence on Monday afternoon, exactly one week following the Boston Marathon bombings. The minute of silence will take place at 2:50 p.m. ET to honor the victims of the attacks and their families. It will be followed by the ringing of bells throughout Boston and the Commonwealth. Mayor Menino and Governor Patrick are humbled by the support shown by the public and the business community, and they continue to encourage everyone to visit https://onefundboston.orgto make a donation to help the victims of this tragedy.

[oldr_n_wsr]

Judging by the way the two acted (or didn't act) after teh bombings two thoughts come to mind.
1) They were planning another attack somewhere close (they had more devices)
and
2) they didn't think their images would come up in the media so quickly (or at all).

The "blend into the crowd" was assumed (incorrectly).

ETA
In years past it might have worked, but not today with a camera on every cell phone (even mine, but I have not used it yet) and CC cameras on just about every building and store.
Plus metwork and news cameras covering the event.

[Guinevere]

From the federal court docket this afternoon: ELECTRONIC Clerk's Notes for proceedings held before Magistrate Judge Marianne B. Bowler:Initial Appearance as to Dzhokhar Tsarnaev held on 4/22/2013 at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Court advises the defendant of his rights and the charges against him. Government states the maximum penalties and moves for detention. Defendant agrees to an order of voluntary detention without prejudice. Defendant declines to answer bail questions and assents to a probable cause hearing on May 30, 2013 at 10:00am. Court is satisfied that the defendant is alert and able to respond to the charges. Defendant is remanded from the custody of the FBI agents present to the U.S. Marshals. (Probable cause hearing set for 5/30/2013 10:00 AM in Courtroom 25 before Magistrate Judge Marianne B. Bowler.) (Attorneys present: Weinreb for the Government. Fick for the defendant.). Complaint against the defendant has been unsealed and is available here:

http://www.justice.gov/usao/ma/news/20 ... 211847.pdf

The federal charges are Use of a Weapon of Mass Destruction and Malicious Destruction of Property Resulting in Death. Both carry the death penalty as possible penalties.

I would assume state charges will be added later, depending on the facts about the shooting of the MIT Officer. I need to go read all the papers . . .

[Lord Jim]

I just read through the complaint....

I'll have more to say about it later, but right now I just want to say I am really impressed by the way the authorities were able to sift through all the video and photographic evidence to construct what looks like a visual ironclad timeline tying these two to the bombing.

It's also clear that the attack itself was carried out in a very organized and disciplined way. They didn't act in a way that made them appear nervous or rushed; they were very methodical. They also seemed to know just how much time they would have prior to each detonation, so they must have had a lot of confidence in the reliability of their bombs and timing mechanisms.

It's difficult for me to imagine them having carried this out with the precision they did without having rehearsed it in some way.

[Lord Jim]

There's one thing in the complaint that's kind of puzzling...

The complaint covers the events of the car jacking. One of the killers comes up to the passenger side window and taps on it. Then when the driver rolls down the window, he reaches around and gets in. While they're driving to pick up the second killer, he makes a confession; bragging to the driver that he was the one who did the bombing. He also shows him the gun and the bullets in the magazine and says he did so to show he was "serious".

What's puzzling is that the complaint doesn't indicate which terrorist was the one who did the initial car jacking and made the confession. Given every thing else we know about how the younger brother was kind of the second fiddle in this, ( according to the complaint, he was also tasked with the second explosion, which would have been easier to pull off and get away from because of the confusion caused by the first., and the fact that there was less of a crowd where his bomb was placed.) it's likely the older brother did the car jacking and bragged about being the bomber, but that is not made clear in the complaint.

It's a very important point, because if it turns out that the younger one is the one who carried out the car jacking and bragged about it to the driver, then that will shoot a huge hole in what is most likely to be defense strategy to save this guy from the death penalty; A Lee Boyd Malvo type defense (the younger one of Beltway Snipers) where they will attempt to portray the older brother as a Svengali type who completely manipulated, dominated and psychologically controlled him.

That becomes a tougher sell, if he can be shown to have taken this kind of initiative.

The only reason that I can see that they wouldn't have specified who carried out the car jacking is because the victim has not made an ID. And I'm having a little trouble understanding. Yes, it was night,but the guy came up and got in to the passenger seat right next to him, and had him look directly at him while he showed him the gun.

Now, unless the guy's face was covered, (and there's nothing in the complaint about that) I can't understand why the driver couldn't have made an ID from photos; they don't look that much alike....and I've got to believe that when someone is sitting right next to you showing you their gun, that going to tend make a strong visual impression on most people....

Maybe they're waiting for him to make a physical ID to rule White Cap in or out as the car jacker, and because of the shape he's in they can't do that yet.

[Crackpot]

It sounds to me that the guy was pretty much abandoned here under the supervision of his older brother. Their parents off the country got divorced on top of which his father is reportedly dying. It seems he may have been subjected to the "perfect storm" of personal upheaval to make him susceptible to his brother.

I don't know why but I'm somewhat sympathetic toward the guy. I just hope the guy can at least muster some level of personal redemption for his acts

[Guinevere]

I could have had some empathy for him, but he is a sentient human being, who deliberately tried to murder and maim innocent civilians at a happy, joyful event. One of the witnesses -- he was either injured or lucky, I can't recall -- has said that he saw White Hat drop the backpack, walk right past him, and look him in the eye. That's evil. He deserves to have the book thrown at him, without mercy.

(although I would also not be surprised at some defense which tries to establish he was under control of his brother and thus could not form the requisite legal intent to commit the crimes he is accused of)

[Lord Jim]

Well said Guin.

[Crackpot]

I doubt they'd be able to convince anyone that he was under his brothers control the best they could argue is influence.

[Lord Jim]

Another interesting thing in the complaint concerns the car owner getting away alive...

Originally there was some arm chair psychology speculation that hey had "let" him live because they came to see him as a person, rather than as an object...

Then later, there was a report that the driver had said that they told him they weren't going to kill him because he wasn't an American...

Turns out neither of these is accurate; they didn't "let" him live at all....

When they pulled up to a convenience store to use the ATM, (a previous attempt hadn't worked) the two of them stupidly, (another example of how this whole thing went from James Bond to Jacques Clouseau after the bombing was carried out) left him alone while they both went into the store, and he was able to run off....

The reason he was still alive at this point is probably because they weren't sure the password he gave them would work....

(If they did actually intend to let him go, again, this was a really stupid way to do it. Why not tie the guy up and leave him out in the boondocks where it would take him hours to free himself and contact the police? This would have at least given them a good head start to get the hell outta Dodge without having to worry about the car being reported stolen.)

[RayThom]

... (although I would also not be surprised at some defense which tries to establish he was under control of his brother and thus could not form the requisite legal intent to commit the crimes he is accused of)

And it is just this defense that will keep this "Jokar" off death row. Unfortunately, even life in solitary confinement is too good for this breathing piece of shit. However, I'm ecstatic he was captured alive so all those who survived this horrendous atrocity can, at least on occasion, read about him dying slowly. Very s..l..o..w..l..y.

I wonder why God has foisted so much pain and misery on good people, and yet let this asshole live? I guess God did, indeed, only gave them all as much as they can handle. Thank you, Jesus, they collectively sigh in unison.

[Lord Jim]

And it is just this defense that will keep this "Jokar" off death row.

I'm inclined to think there's a good chance of that....

I very much doubt he could get off with the Svengali routine, but in the penalty phase, all they would need to do is convince one juror that he was sufficiently diminished in responsibility due to his being a pathetic weak willed follower of his brother that he should be spared the death penalty.

That's exactly what happened in the Malvo case:

He pleaded not guilty by reason of insanity to all charges on the grounds that he was under Muhammad's complete control.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Boyd_Malvo

It didn't work, but it got the jury to give him LWOP rather than the DP.

Of course in that case, the jury knew that John Muhammad had already been sentenced to death....

In this case White Cap (I use that rather than having to keep spelling the guy's name over and over) is the only one who can be made to pay with that penalty.

And there are other differences, (there was a larger age difference between Muhammad and Malvo, Muhammed had kept Malvo fairly isolated from other influences; White Cap had a pretty independent life, etc.) so maybe it wouldn't even work in the penalty phase, but I think there's a good chance it might.

Assuming of course there isn't a plea deal, but given the nature of the crime, (and the fact that this guy probably doesn't have any valuable information he can use to cut a deal) I think that's unlikely.

[Guinevere]

I think that's all a whole lot of speculation for just the day after the arraignment.

What struck me was that the complaint was thin as possible, while still putting out enough to get probable cause. There will be mounds and mounds of evidence on the subject, of which we will see very little until trial. I also expect the complaint to be amended at some point to include state murder and attempted murder charges, at least with respect to the officers shot during the "escape" attempt. Some of that will depend on how the evidence develops on who did the shooting, but from what little we know I think the felony murder rule would apply so it wouldn't matter who pulled the trigger.

Also, just because he is charged with DP eligible crimes doesn't mean the Feds will seek the DP. That's a determination which is at least six months out.

And anyway, we need to try Whitey Bulger (remember him) first (and those pretrial proceedings have been fascinating so far). Who would have thought we would have *two* "trials of the century" in the District of Mass within the next year or so. Life at the courthouse is going to be quite the zoo this summer.