Plan B Forum

- Harley-Davidson Inc's (HOG.N) shares skidded to a more than one-year low after the motorcycle maker cut its full-year shipments forecast as demand weakens among its aging baby-boomer customers and fewer millennials take to motorcycling.

The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker also said it would need to cut production in second half of 2017, resulting in hourly workforce reductions at some of its U.S. plants.

Harley's shares were down 9 percent at $47.17 in late morning trading on Tuesday.

While demand for new models has waned, the company has also taken a hit from used motorcycles being sold off by aging customers.

For the full year, Harley said it expects to ship 241,000 to 246,000 motorcycles, compared with 262,221 a year earlier. The company had previously forecast shipments to be flat to modestly down. That's a far cry from the nearly 350,000 it shipped a year about a decade ago.

"We are downgrading Harley-Davidson to 'market-perform' based on increased conviction that motorcycle demand in the United States is in the throes of secular erosion," Bernstein analyst David Beckel said.

Beckel noted that the "Generation Y" - those born in the 1980s and early 1990s - was adopting motorcycling at a far lower rate than prior generations.

Old, slow, overweight and cumbersome, would be my reason

gob wrote:Old, slow, overweight and cumbersome, would be my reason

Burning Petard wrote:I'd rather have a Buell. But they are gone. snailgate

"We are downgrading Harley-Davidson to 'market-perform' based on increased conviction that motorcycle demand in the United States is in the throes of secular erosion," Bernstein analyst David Beckel said.

ex-khobar Andy wrote:WTF is 'secular erosion?'

MGMcAnick wrote:You mean, you mean...

Someone besides BMW makes a motorcycle?

Wow, who knew?

Seriously, BMW riders tend to skew older too. Most of the guys in the local club, not to be confused with a gang, are past 60.

I think I can safely say that I know no one under 30 who rides a Harley or a BMW. They ALL ride Japanese bikes. The theory of MANY used Harleys being dumped on the market may be correct. I went to a BIG motorcycle auction in Dallas in April. The company does four around the country every month. See http://www.npauctions.com/ContentPage.aspx?cp=HP Of 1600+ used bikes, well over half were HDs. They were selling in four auction "rings", and still had three long rows of Harleys to go when everything else was done. I don't think HDs account for over half the bikes sold in this country.

Big RR wrote:is it possible the Harleys last longer, which is why there are more used ones for sale?

I have a friend who rode an older Harley for years because he said the newer ones were underpowered (even less than his 20 year old bike). He did say he wants to see how the new engine they are introducing works out because it is supposed to deliver a lot more horsepower.