Independence day

[Lord Jim]

I just saw that too...

It doesn't appear the London turnout is going to be high enough to push Remain over the finish line....

[Lord Jim]

$Au just jumped 2p against the £ sterling

If as appears will be the case Leave wins, short term the pound is going to take a hit, and financial markets both in the UK and abroad (including the US) are going to take a hit...

This is to be expected given the way the country's own leadership has been predicting disaster...

But in a relatively short period of time, when it becomes clear that the sky isn't going to fall, and that all the apocalyptic predictions aren't going to happen, and that the fundamentals of the British economy remain strong, this will reverse itself...

[Scooter]

The Canadian dollar is tanking on the news. But the pound is tanking even more. It was $1.91 Cdn earlier today, now its at $1.80.

[Gob]

which currency is t tanking against Scoot?

[Gob]

Eighteen of the 22 Welsh authorities have now declared. Only three – the Vale of Glamorgan in the south, Monmouthshire in the south-east and Ceredigion in west Wales – have voted to remain, the rest are for leave.

In places like the south Wales valleys (traditional Labour heartlands), leave is sweeping the board. Cardiff is expected to vote to stay but it’s been a miserable night in Wales for the remain campaign. Ironically, some of the places that have received the most EU funding over the years because of their economic problems have voted most strongly to leave.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Glad the wogs Welsh want to preserve England despite the 2-1 thrashing in Europa 2016 a few days back

[RayThom]

I'm sticking with my Yorkshire/Midlands relatives who believe "remain" will be the final outcome even if the recount takes a few weeks. They are still holding on to a 52% -- 48% margin.

[Gob]

Glad the wogs Welsh want to preserve England despite the 2-1 thrashing in Europa 2016 a few days back

FUCK. OFF!

[Lord Jim]

I'm sticking with my Yorkshire/Midlands relatives who believe "remain" will be the final outcome even if the recount takes a few weeks. They are still holding on to a 52% -- 48% margin.

I don't know what you're looking at Ray, but Remain hasn't led for several hours, and as for a recount, the Leave lead is now up to 620,000 votes...

I posted this link earlier; this is where you'll find the most up to date results:

http://www.itv.com/news/

[ex-khobar Andy]

I'm watching the BBC coverage and at the moment 354am UK time Leave has around 460000 lead. I am hugely saddened because I think it is very damaging to the economy up wondering what they have done. I would not be surprised if some of the vote is not so much to leave the EU and more to send a message to the perceived elite. Not unlike what is happening in this country: the anti establishment vote (Sanders and Trump) is driven by anti rather than for anything.

[Guinevere]

Dow futures down 500. S&P down 3.5% - 1130pm ish Eastern.

Bumpy ride ahead.

[Lord Jim]

I've seen a couple of morons talking about a new general election...

Where is the mandate for that?

The leadership of both major parties supported Remain...

On the other hand, the argument for a new Prime Minister is a different matter...

Rank and file Tories supported Leave by a wide margin, as did nearly half of Tory MPs (and many of the Conservative MPs that supported Remain did so with little enthusiasm, only to back their Party Leader)

David Cameron had no choice but to support Remain, having been the one who came up with the insulting non-deal with the EU, but he didn't have to make himself the Fearmongerer-In-Chief...

I think he's got a very short window in which to show that he can completely and sincerely reverse course and commit himself totally to making this separation work. If he doesn't do this, he will find himself replaced by the party, whether he wants to go or not...And he has no one but himself to blame for finding himself in this predicament...

And the tone he sets in what he will say later this morning will be critical in determining his political survival.

If he's hanging crepe, and talking about what a great disappointment the vote is, and how bad things will now be for the country, then he sure as hell ain't the guy to lead the nation in the transition back to full national sovereignty....

[RayThom]

Over!?

[Guinevere]

BBC calls it - Leave wins. Final margin to be determined.

I'm somewhat shocked.

ETA: ITV also

[RayThom]

I'm not going to believe anything until I hear Cameron is sticking a fork in it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 99011.html

[Lord Jim]

I'm somewhat shocked.

I'm not shocked...

More like very pleasantly surprised...

After the momentum for Leave stalled last week in the wake of the murder, even though I was pulling for Leave I really thought Remain would probably squeak it out...

Now it will also be interesting to see how the political leadership of EU responds...

If they're smart, they'll respond with humility, and offer to be more accomodating to both the UK and the desires of the peoples of the remaining member states. They'll take a long hard look at their structure and goals and and try to re-tool as type of decentralized federation with more respect for the national prerogatives of the member countries.

If they fail to do this, and instead double down on arrogance, (which frankly is what I expect them to do) then the UK will be only the first of many countries to head for door, and they will be assuring their own increasing irrelevance and ultimately their extinction...

[Guinevere]

I tend to agree with the economists who think this is a bad bad decision. Only time will tell.

[ex-khobar Andy]

I'm shocked. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain; and of course one of the arguments raised against Scottish independence a year ago was that if they voted to leave the UK they would have to leave the EU. Now the opposite has happened. We see that absolute fucker Farage proclaiming this as a victory for decent and good people which makes it very clear what he thinks of the rest of us. Sinn Fein are seeing this as more ammunition for the North to join Eire. I predict the breakup of the UIK and its future as a sad little island with an interesting past and little future.

[Lord Jim]

I tell you somebody I've been impressed with as a possible dark horse candidate to replace Cameron, is the Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom...



I wasn't familiar with her before but I saw her interviewed extensively earlier on ITV and recently on BBC...

She strikes me as a very bright, articulate, confident, and knowledgeable person. She was also a strong and prominent Brexit backer.

Obviously if Cameron is to be replaced it would make absolutely no sense to replace him with another Remain supporter...

[Gob]

I'm shocked. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain; and of course one of the arguments raised against Scottish independence a year ago was that if they voted to leave the UK they would have to leave the EU. Now the opposite has happened. We see that absolute fucker Farage proclaiming this as a victory for decent and good people which makes it very clear what he thinks of the rest of us. Sinn Fein are seeing this as more ammunition for the North to join Eire. I predict the breakup of the UIK and its future as a sad little island with an interesting past and little future.

Full of joy there mate.