Polling numbers and predictions

[oldr_n_wsr]

Read an interesting article in yesterdays Newsday. Don't recall the writer but it was in the op-ed section. His proposal was a "None of the Above" option (nothing new there as I others have advocated for that) but his "solution" would be if None of the Above won, the current pres would stay on another two years and both parties would have to come up with two new candidates.
Interesting "solution" even if I do not want Obama for two more years. Although Obama is looking better than Clinton or Trump. I can't believe I wrote that

[Lord Jim]

First the bad news...

This is the first major national poll in a long time to show Trump with a lead:

Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.

How Donald Trump could win
The topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not. Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll.

Clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy. But most voters say they still expect to see Clinton prevail in November, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think Trump has the better shot at winning.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics ... tion-2016/


And now the good news...(sort of):

A new 50-state poll shows exactly why Clinton holds the advantage over Trump

With nine weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump is within striking distance in the Upper Midwest, but Hillary Clinton’s strength in many battlegrounds and some traditional Republican strongholds gives her a big electoral college advantage, according to a 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll.

The survey of all 50 states is the largest sample ever undertaken by The Post, which joined with SurveyMonkey and its online polling resources to produce the results. The state-by-state numbers are based on responses from more than 74,000 registered voters during the period of Aug. 9 to Sept. 1. The individual state samples vary in size from about 550 to more than 5,000, allowing greater opportunities than typical surveys to look at different groups within the population and compare them from state to state.

The massive survey highlights a critical weakness in Trump’s candidacy — an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women. White college graduates have been loyal Republican voters in recent elections, but Trump is behind Clinton with this group across much of the country, including in some solidly red states.

The 50-state findings come at a time when the average national margin between Clinton and Trump has narrowed. What once was a Clinton lead nationally of eight to 10 points shortly after the party conventions ended a month ago is now about four points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A number of battleground states also have tightened, according to surveys released from other organizations in recent days.

The Post-SurveyMonkey results are consistent with many of those findings, but not in all cases. Trump’s support in the Midwest, where the electorates are generally older and whiter, appears stronger and offers the possibility of gains in places Democrats carried recently. He has small edges in two expected battlegrounds — Ohio and Iowa — and is close in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, each of which Democrats have won in six consecutive elections.

At the same time, however, Trump is struggling in places Republicans have won consistently and that he must hold to have any hope of winning. These states include Arizona and Georgia, as well as Texas — the biggest surprise in the 50-state results. The Texas results, which are based on a sample of more than 5,000 people, show a dead heat, with Clinton ahead by one percentage point.

In a two-way competition between the major-party candidates, Clinton leads by four points or more in 20 states plus the District of Columbia. Together they add up to 244 electoral votes, 26 shy of the 270 needed to win.

Trump leads by at least four points in 20 states as well, but those add up to just 126 electoral votes. In the 10 remaining states, which hold 168 electoral votes, neither candidate has a lead of four percentage points or better.

Here's a link to the rest of the article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

And here's a link to an interactive map where you can see all of the results, state by state:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... tate-poll/

[wesw]

if you believe that any poll conducted by Bezos' Washington post is fairly conducted, you may be delusional....

[RayThom]

Polls change as quickly as a candidate's sneeze or yawn or what they ate for lunch.

I'm going to accept the poll taken on the night of November 8th, and then have the Supreme Court figure it out because the process will no doubt be rigged.

And as always, God bless America.

[Bicycle Bill]

First the bad news...

This is the first major national poll in a long time to show Trump with a lead:

Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race

The fact that the race is even this close speaks far more about the reasoning power — or more accurately, the lack of reasoning power — of Trump's supporters than it does of Trump's appeal to the rest of the electorate.

-"BB"-

[Long Run]

It speaks equally to the choice made by the D's.

[Burning Petard]

And you never know what other message you are gonna get. I followed the link above to the CNN poll story. At the top of the page is a 'breaking news' banner--the Cosby felony trial for aggravated assault is scheduled to start June 5

Huh? This has been in news in the Philly area almost daily, seems like longer than the Trump/Hillary contest. June 5, 2017 ? ? ? ?

Are both sides stalling, hoping everybody is gonna die before this has to go to a jury?

snailgate

[MajGenl.Meade]

They want to get it out of the way before the case against Hillary is finally brought....

[BoSoxGal]

It speaks equally to the choice made by the D's.

Are you asserting that in a Sanders v Trump contest the Dems would be miles ahead?

[Long Run]

It speaks equally to the choice made by the D's.

Are you asserting that in a Sanders v Trump contest the Dems would be miles ahead?

No. The point is that while the Rs can be rightly criticized for nominating a candidate who is unacceptable to a majority of Americans, the same can be said for the Ds. Certainly, both parties have potential POTUS talent/experience where most of those who vote against the person acknowledge (in their non-hyped moments) that the person has the temperament, character and experience to do the job. Actually, the Rs had quite a few who met that minimal bar, those candidates just got their clocks cleaned. Most of the talent in the D party stayed away in deference to the eventual nominee.

[Lord Jim]

Tim Kaine would be beating Trump by 15- 20 points...(and Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or John Kasich would be beating Hillary by a similar margin)

The fact that Hillary Clinton can't put it away against the worst candidate nominated by a major party in the history of modern American politics speaks at least as loudly for how deeply flawed as a candidate she is as it does about those who prefer Trump to her...

[Gob]

The fact that the race is even this close speaks far more about the reasoning power — or more accurately, the lack of reasoning power — of Trump's supporters than it does of Trump's appeal to the rest of the electorate.

“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”

[Lord Jim]

[rubato]

More than 100 prominent Republicans have repudiated Trump. About half of those have said they are voting for Hillary since she is the most appealing candidate.

Even Republicans know that the Benghazi and email "scandals" are bullshit.

Some of them.



See Sun NYT.

Yrs,
Rubato

[Big RR]

Even Republicans know that the Benghazi and email "scandals" are bullshit.

Or they overlook them because they know Trump is a dangerous asshole.

[Bicycle Bill]

Even Republicans know that the Benghazi and email "scandals" are bullshit.

Or they overlook them because they know Trump is a dangerous asshole.

Or both.  The so-called "scandals" are bullshit, and Trump *IS* a dangerous and uncontrolled asshole.

-"BB"-

[Big RR]

BB--I agree the scandals are bullshit (although so is Hillary's way of handling the latter one), but I would doubt many republicans would agree. So while it is a little of both, I am inclined to think many of those mentioned by rubato see Hillary as anything but the lesser (far lesser for most) of the two evils.

[Long Run]

I am inclined to think many of those mentioned by rubato see Hillary as anything but the lesser (far lesser for most) of the two evils.

And the polls would support this. Over 1/2 of those who say they will vote for Clinton or Trump say they are doing so because they are voting against the other, and not because they actually want the person they are voting for. This means that less than 50% of those who are voting for either of these candidates actually likes voting for them. Usually, that number is in the 65-80% range.

[wesw]

there are going to be millions of un polled voters this cycle.

the working class does not generally vote.

they are smart enough to see the elite corrupt establishment has controlled both parties and don t think that it matters who wins...

...and they have been right.

generation X will finally rear its head this cycle.

trump wins.

ps- I know the grammar sucks, but who cares?

vote trump!!!

[Burning Petard]

ps- I know the grammar sucks, but who cares?

Is this the typical Trump supporter--one who thinks general cultural agreements to facilitate clear communication are of no consequence?

snailgate