2020 Presidential Polls and Projections

[BoSoxGal]

70,000,000 have already voted as of today. All projections are for the largest voter turnout in over 100 years - even in the face of GOP efforts to limit counting the mail in ballots. The youth turnout is in record numbers.

What kind of America will be revealed?

[BoSoxGal]

did you see trumps little appearance at the maine farmstand yesterday?

good people were there, up closen and trump was right there with them

The Bangor Daily News is reporting that the Levant Maine family who own the orchard where Trump made his impromptu visit were told by the campaign it would be a small, private photo op visit - not the throngs of unmasked Trump cultists who packed in around the farm stand to get close to Trump. Now they’re worried for their community and covid19 spread.

Fucking POS Trump.

[wesw]

yeah, I went and read the article.

the statement sounded like a hostage statement made under pressure from local authorities.

I don t know for sure but it sure sounded that way.

[Scooter]

And Georgia tips back into Biden's column.

Biden 356
Trump 182

[BoSoxGal]

Also fantastic. *fingers crossed*

Even better than polls/projections, the actual data on the 70+ million votes already officially cast (early in person and received mailed ballots) leans strongly in favor of the Democratic Party.

I am sick to my stomach from anxiety and will be for the next week or more I’m sure - but things do look hopeful. I hope Americans reveal themselves to be a mostly good people.

[Long Run]

Even better than polls/projections, the actual data on the 70+ million votes already officially cast (early in person and received mailed ballots) leans strongly in favor of the Democratic Party.

Sean Trende explained yesterday why the early vote is non-news.

The polling is itself going to be an interesting story, with 3 or 4 reputable pollsters having Trump even or ahead in the EC with a growing lead, and all the other polls show Biden leading with a solid to big majority. Some are going to look smart, and others not so much come next Tuesday night.

[Big RR]

LR--which are the reputable polls that have Trump ahead with a growing lead in the electoral college; I have seen such statements, but none backed up with data or from a reputable sources--I'd like to see what you are referring to.

[Long Run]

Rasmussen and Zogby have been around the longest; they get some things right and some things wrong, like most pollsters. Newer polls include Trafalgar which called 2016 and 2018 correctly and seems to be the best at figuring out the hard to figure Trump vote. Another newer name is Susquehanna which has it going either way. Before you dismiss these, I'd ask how accurate do you think bigger name polls are that show a double digit lead for Biden. If you want more proof that this is going to be close, just check out Biden finally getting out and doing campaign stops to go along with his media blitz -- he would be playing it safe, staying home and avoiding foot-in-mouth disease, if he was confident he was well ahead. It would be nice if it turns out Biden has a comfortable win but no one should be expecting that at this point.

[Big RR]

Do I buy a double digit lead for Biden? Much as I'd like to see it, I really don't, and in any event I appreciate that the Biden campaign is taking this last push seriously. However, it does appear that most of the established pollsters have Biden winning, which is encouraging. Some of the others may be using different methodologies which still need to be proven IMHO, or are just playing the contrarian, as being right will get them a lot of press and air time, while being wrong probably won't be a major problem. I don't place a lot of stock in polls, but after 2016 am glad to see a lot more involving the electoral college--if I recall correctly Hillary won the popular vote by the margin predicted by the mainline polls, but lost in the electoral college. Personally, I find the Senate polls a lot more encouraging.

[BoSoxGal]

yeah, I went and read the article.

the statement sounded like a hostage statement made under pressure from local authorities.

I don t know for sure but it sure sounded that way.

What strain are you smoking?

Regarding Hosting the President
Late last night we received a call from the White House asking if President Donald Trump could visit our family farm during a small, unpublicized stop. Each day we aim to make America a little better by practicing radical hospitality, connecting people together, and to the land through agriculture. We extend that to each of our guests regardless of political persuasion or office. And so when someone asks if they can come to the farm, the answer is ‘yes’. This event was not a rally and we are not endorsing any particular candidate, but we are honored to welcome a sitting president into our home.

October 25, 2020 3:30pm
Portland Press.png
The President with members of the Treworgy Family - AP Photo Alex Brandon
The President with members of the Treworgy Family - AP Photo Alex Brandon

Regarding Crowds and COVID-19
We share the concerns of many over the size of the gathering, lack of social distancing and mask wearing during the event. We were told this would be a small, unpublicized, surprise, private, photo op which gave us no cause for alarm. Given that information, we accepted the visit, just as we would for any President. We were sworn to secrecy and told that to prevent crowds we could not tell anyone and avoid answering questions from the media. Upon acceptance, the farm was essentially handed over to Secret Service and White House staff for security sweeps and staging the visit. We expected the President to show up unannounced, surprise the few people who happened to be here, and leave with some nice photos of him holding a pumpkin.

Although we maintained secrecy about the event, the location somehow became known. We have had a mask and social distance policy in place since we opened for the season which we enforce to the best of our ability in the interest of the health and safety of our customers, our employees, and our family. We were not aware that this visit would be open to the public without our ability to enforce our policies. All enforcement of the farm was handled by the Secret Service and by the time crowds began to gather our staff was not able to move freely. Not only were we surprised, but the Secret Service and White House personnel were shocked at the number of people arriving as well. If something had changed within the White House or campaign planning for this visit, we were not made aware of it during the process. If we had it our way, the visit would have gone just as we had initially been told: an unannounced photo op with the President and his team.

We are concerned about COVID-19's spread locally and globally, and we are proud that Maine has been a leader on limiting the spread as much as possible. Our mask policy will remain intact for the rest of this season, and - while we hope COVID-19 will be at a point where we won't need a mask policy next year - we will continue to implement policies and protocols as advised by state officials in order to keep our customers, employees, and families safe.

October 27, 2020 11:00am

[wesw]

here are the states that I feel that biden may win....

sure things...

Vermont, Maryland, virginia, Illinois,washington

likely...

NY, NJ, MA, NM, california, Oregon

there others that he may win, but I see any other state as a long shot for him

[datsunaholic]

The polls I see today are way, way closer.

274 to 264. That's with Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, and Georgia all in the Trump camp. With Iowa barely in the Biden camp means if it flips, the whole thing flips. Plus North Carolina is no sure bet for Biden.

[wesw]

I was actually called by a pollster, on my cellphone, about two weeks ago.

i had complained that I wasn t polled, so I decided to participate.

I spent about a half an hour on the phone with the guy.

it was good fun.

I had him laughing.

nice young man

when we got to the Delaware governor s race , I really broke him up.

I told him I was a strong murray supporter, and that I didn tt know what she looked like, but I got a stiffy whenever I heard her talk.

I do love me some liberty.

holy yelled at me, but at least I made the pollster laugh....

[BoSoxGal]

I used to do phone polling (and market surveys, and customer satisfaction surveys); I bet I can guess exactly what kind of conversation was had about you when that pollster hung up the phone and talked to the pollster in the next cubicle.

[Scooter]

I neglected yesterday's update, which remains unchanged today, that moved Ohio into a tie.

Biden 356
Trump 164
Ties 18

[wesw]

that map is just delusional.

did you see the crowds in PA?

I asked my daughter who her friends were supporting.

she only has one friend that she knows of who supports biden.

she said that that friend doesn t really like either of them but her parents are voting biden

she isn t mad at my daughter for supporting trump and my daughter isn t mad at her for supporting biden

my daughter said that she and her friends generally don t talk about politics

they have enough problems, I guess

this break from lefty schools has been great for America s youth

they are slowly learning to think freely

learning that they really aren t that special

she still walks around taking selfies with her lips pursed like an idiot, but at least we can laugh about it

[Darren]

PA is in the Trump column. PA has a lot of construction going on. I suspect many workers registered in PA while working on long running projects like the cracker near Beaver.

If you look at the attendees at Trump rallies they are not 100% Republicans. Lots of independents and Democrats are attending. The walkaway movement is real.

Based on Keith Ellison's statement, Minnesota will likely go for Trump. Add FL, OH, GA, MI, WI, NC and possibly NV and of course TEXAS!

[Joe Guy]

If you look at the attendees at Trump rallies they are not 100% Republicans. Lots of independents and Democrats are attending. The walkaway movement is real.

What is the basis for your conclusion? How do you know "Lots of independents and Democrats are attending"?

Based on Keith Ellison's statement, Minnesota will likely go for Trump. Add FL, OH, GA, MI, WI, NC and possibly NV and of course TEXAS!

Which statement by Keith Ellison?

[MajGenl.Meade]

. . . projects like the cracker near Beaver . . . If you look at the attendees at Trump rallies they are not 100% Republicans.

a) don't tell Trump where the projects are. He'll want to grab one or both

b) whatever their affiliation, 100% moronic anti-Constitution bastards

[wesw]

there s that 150 IQ shining thru...



great arguments there, Einstein

don t let that cracker, biden, anywhere near your beavers

he is a dam buster

three fries short of a happy meal

angry joe and the beavers?

get the hell off my lawn!!!!!

dual citizen ship needs to be outlawed.