Polling numbers and predictions

[Econoline]

Is this the typical Trump supporter--one who thinks general cultural agreements to facilitate clear communication are of no consequence?

Well...Trump supporters are supporting a candidate who thinks general cultural agreements to facilitate clear communication are of no consequence. so the answer to your question should be obvious.

The larger, more serious question is what happens when the election is over and a sizable percentage of the electorate is convinced that the result is not legitimate and should not be honored. Like the nomination of a completely unqualified candidate by a major political party, this would be an unprecedented development--even Kennedy, Nixon and Bush were accepted as POTUS by the vast majority of the opposition (including Nixon, Humphrey, and Gore). I fear for the nation's future.

[wesw]

well, snailgate...., no.

the average trump supporter thinks that it is right important to talk plain (communicate clearly, just in case you needed a translation )

despite your prejudices , country folk and working folk ain t not no fools.

a person s speech patterns are not an indicator of his or her intelligence or education, just of their environment.

I makes my points just fine and so do trump....

[Lord Jim]

Trump and Clinton in tight race in Texas, new poll says

Less than eight weeks before the November election, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Texas among likely voters, but only a 1-point lead among all registered voters, according to results of the Texas Lyceum poll released Thursday.

The poll is the latest to suggest that the deep red state of Texas might witness a closer-than-usual contest this fall. It comes even as new national and battleground state polls show the race tightening and Trump gaining in ways that indicate that a Clinton victory, which just after the party conventions in July seemed almost a foregone conclusion, is now anything but a done deal.

The Lyceum poll, conducted Sept. 1 through Sunday, shows Trump leading in Texas with 39 percent to Clinton’s 32 percent, Johnson’s 9 percent and Stein’s 3 percent. One-on-one, Trump leads Clinton by 6 points, 42 to 36 percent, suggesting that, in Texas at least, Johnson and Stein aren’t substantially skewing the race.

The Lyceum poll is only the most recent to put the Trump-Clinton spread in Texas in single digits. If that holds, it would be far closer than 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s rout of President Barack Obama in Texas by nearly 16 percentage points, and Obama’s loss in Texas to 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain by just under 12 points.

The Lyceum finding is also significant because it is a poll that relies on telephone interviews, both cellular and land line, conducted in English and Spanish, as opposed to an online survey. And, it reported results for likely voters, which, even in this unusual electoral year, is probably the best predictor of the final result, even if 17 percent of those voters aren’t yet expressing a preference.

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/st ... ce-/nsYXs/

Any other GOP nominee would be leading in Texas by a margin similar to the lead Clinton has in New York and California...

It's still a long shot, but if Hillary can flip Texas, it's obviously game over. With so many undecided still out there, it's not easy but doable.

[Scooter]

I makes my points just fine and so do trump

That is why almost everything that comes out of his mouth unscripted has to be reworded by his handlers to explain what we would have heard if only we didn't rely on our lying ears.

[Lord Jim]

Senate Republicans see brighter prospects for keeping majority

The Associated Press

(c) 2016, Bloomberg.

Republicans' chances of holding the Senate are improving considerably, thanks to Hillary Clinton's sliding popularity, strong campaigns by Republican candidates and a GOP fundraising surge.

Just a few months ago, Republicans were fretting that a backlash against their presidential candidate, Donald Trump, could cost them the Senate. Now, two races Democrats have long targeted -- Ohio and Florida -- have started to slip away, as have Arizona and Iowa, where top Senate Republicans John McCain and Charles Grassley have built double-digit leads in recent polls.

"The now-tight presidential race suggests that perhaps Clinton could pull off a narrow victory that still allows the GOP to hold the Senate," wrote Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics on Monday as they moved four Senate races in the Republicans' direction.

The shift marks a dramatic reversal for Senate Democrats, who have gone from hoping for an anti-Trump-fueled electoral wave to insisting that their darkening poll numbers, dragged down by Clinton's unpopularity, aren't accurate. Senate Democrats also say a big fundraising haul for Republicans is to blame.

"The big Republican donors that give dark money, the Koch brothers and all the rest of them, they're panicky about Donald Trump, so they're all in with Mitch McConnell and Republican senators," Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri said in an interview last week, [Gee Claire, you say that like its a bad thing...] referring to the Senate majority leader. "We don't have as many of those types that have real huge money and can give lots of money. The ones that we have are also panicked about Donald Trump and they're giving to Hillary Clinton."

The Real Clear Politics average now has the GOP ahead 47-46 in the Senate count with 7 toss ups...

Just a couple of week s go the Dems led 47-44 with 9 toss ups...

With no toss ups, the GOP now hangs on 51-49 ( previously it was 50-50...Assuming a Democratic Presidential win, that would have given the Dems control)

[wesw]

trump loves Canadians too....

[Lord Jim]

The post-debate legitimate poll numbers are starting to come in...

Polls: Clinton leads in Florida, New Hampshire

(CNN)Hillary Clinton has single-digit leads over Donald Trump in Florida and New Hampshire, according to a new polls conducted after the first presidential debate.
A Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters in Florida found Clinton leading Trump 46% to 42%, just outside of the poll's margin of error. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson drew 7% support, ahead of Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%. Four percent said they remain undecided. ...

...Clinton is ahead of Trump by 7 points in New Hampshire, according to another new poll taken after the first presidential debate.

The WBUR poll, released Friday, found Clinton with 42% support to Trump's 35%, while Johnson draws a substantial 13% in the four-way race.

Four out of five likely voters in New Hampshire said they watched the debate between Clinton and Trump -- 59% of those said that Clinton won, compared to 19% who gave Trump the win. While just over half said that the debate "made no difference" in how they would vote, 27% said the debate made them more likely to vote for Clinton, ahead of the 13% of said it would make them more inclined to vote for Trump.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/30/politics/ ... ton-trump/

Nevada Poll Shows Hillary Clinton With a 6-Point Lead

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by six points in a new poll of likely voters in Nevada, a state Democrats won in 2012 but where they have seen their advantage slip.

Mrs. Clinton won 44% in the Suffolk University poll to Mr. Trump’s 38%, with libertarian Gary Johnson winning nearly 7% of the vote. Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, isn’t on Nevada’s ballot. Mrs. Clinton led by two points in Suffolk University’s August poll.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/3 ... oint-lead/

Poll: Hillary Clinton Widens Lead in Michigan Following Debate

A Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll taken after Monday's debate shows Clinton with a 7-percentage point lead over Republican opponent Donald Trump in a statewide poll, Chad Livengood writes in The News.

Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 35 percent in a four-way race and maintains a seven-point lead in a two-way matchup,

About 9 percent of likely voters favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 3 percent back Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Nine percent remain undecided in the poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by Glengariff Group Inc.

In August, Clinton had a commanding 11 point lead over Trump, according to a Free Press/WXYZ poll. By mid-September that lead had shrunk to 38%-35%.

http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles ... -6fRPQerN4

Another New Poll Shows Clinton Expanding Her National Lead Over Trump

Another national poll shows Hillary Clinton expanding her lead over Donald Trump as the Republican nominee continues to unravel days after imploding on the debate stage.

The Times-Picayune/Lucid presidential tracking poll released Thursday shows the former Secretary of State with a five-point lead over Trump, the largest margin she’s had in the survey in several weeks.

What’s even more troubling for the Republican nominee is that he only clocked in at a dismal 37 percent in the poll – his worst showing in weeks, according to this particular survey.

But it’s not just this poll that has shows the numbers moving in Clinton’s direction.

Public Policy Polling’s national poll released yesterday shows Clinton ahead by four points, and the latest Rasmussen poll – which has been a Trump-leaning survey throughout the campaign – released on Thursday showed a six-point swing in Clinton’s direction in just a week.

On the day of the first presidential debate, the Democratic nominee’s lead over Trump in a four-way race was roughly 1.5 percent. As more polling continues to pour in, her lead is now double that margin and continuing to grow in post polls. HuffPost Pollster shows Clinton leading Trump by an average of five percentage points.

State polling from today, as Jason Easley wrote, shows Clinton ahead in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania – a group of states Trump must win at least some of if he wants to be president.

It’s unlikely that these numbers will be heading back in Trump’s favor in the short-term. Since his awful debate performance, Trump has found himself weight-shaming a former Miss Universe winner and blaming Hillary Clinton for her husband’s infidelities – both moves that are likely to hurt him more with the voters he is trying to persuade.

It’s been a rough week for Donald Trump, and it’s only just beginning to register in the polling data.

The post debate shifts so far have not been dramatic, but they've been consistent across the board...

[Econoline]

[Lord Jim]

New poll: Trump lead shrinks in Texas, within margin of error

DALLAS - After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night.

The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is four percent.

"I think to put these numbers in context - it shows that Trump's position has eroded a little bit. His lead is down to four percentage points according to this poll, but even in the wake of some really terrible news for him, he still leads in Texas, which shows what a tough nut Texas is to crack for Democratic candidates right now,” said Matthew Wilson, Associate Professor of Political Science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

SurveyUSA conducted the poll between Monday and Wednesday of this week – after both the 2005 video in which Trump used lewd comments describing women and the second presidential debate in St. Louis on Sunday night.

In recent weeks, two other statewide polls showed Trump up by six and seven points, respectively.

"It pretty consistently shows that Trump is struggling in Texas more than a Republican typically would,” Wilson added. “He's still highly likely to win the state in the end but we typically see double digit margins for Republican candidates and Trump seems unlikely to produce that.

For perspective, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012, John McCain won this state by 13 points in 2008, George W. Bush carried his home state by 23 points in 2004, and 22 points in 2000 when he was elected to his first term.

The eroding support in the largest Republican state in the country could suggest deeper problems for Trump nationwide, Wilson explained.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/texas-ne ... /335896258

The key to Hillary winning a true electoral landslide, (400 or more votes) would be for her to flip Texas...

Still unlikely, but if Trump continues to implode and melt-down, (and there's no indication that he has any intention of doing otherwise) not impossible...

[RayThom]

Do you think if Ted Cruz "reunendorsed" Drumpf that it might sway a few voters toward the great pumpkin again? These two political geniuses need to get together and come up with a better strategy.

Feel the love.

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

Clinton holds clear advantage in new battleground polls

Hillary Clinton holds a decisive advantage over Donald Trump in the competition for votes in the electoral college, leading in enough states to put her comfortably over the 270 majority needed to win the presidential election in November, according to a new SurveyMonkey poll of 15 battleground states conducted with The Washington Post.

Based on the results from the 15 state surveys, along with assumptions of the likely outcomes in other states that have consistently voted for one party or the other, Clinton, the Democratic nominee, holds leads of four percentage points or more among likely voters in states that add up to 304 electoral votes.




Trump, the GOP nominee, has the advantage in states with an estimated electoral vote total of 138. Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas, which account for 96 electoral votes, remain as toss-ups. All results in the 15 state surveys are based on ballot tests that include Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

The results underscore the importance for Trump of Wednesday’s final presidential debate, in Las Vegas. National polls have moved in Clinton’s direction since the exchanges began in late September. Her current average margin is seven points in polling averages from the Huffington Post Pollster and RealClearPolitics. The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll put her national lead over Trump at four points.

The effect of the shift toward Clinton in national polls is evident in the new 15-state study. In late August, The Post, using SurveyMonkey’s online methodology, conducted individual polls in all 50 states among registered voters. At that time, Clinton led in states that added up to 244 electoral votes, while Trump led in states accounting for 126. Toss-up states equaled 168 electoral votes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html


And yet another new poll has Texas within the margin of error:

Clinton, Trump neck-and-neck in new Texas poll

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton is narrowing in on Donald Trump's lead in Texas, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.

Trump leads Clinton 41% to 38%, according to the latest University of Houston survey. Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson stands in third place with 4% support, followed by Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1%, with 11% undecided.

GOP presidential candidates have won Texas by no less than 11 percentage points since 2000, according to a memo accompanying the poll results. Democrats last won Texas in a presidential race in 1976.

The poll also showed that, despite Trump's narrow lead, 53% of Texas voters thought Clinton would be elected as the next US president compared to 23% of voters who said they thought it would be Trump.

The Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,000 likely Texas voters between October 7-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/18/politics/ ... tial-poll/

[Long Run]

What is the deal with the LA Times and Rasmussen polls? Has anyone figured out why Trump looks so much stronger under those than all of the other polls?

[Scooter]

All of the other pollsters are part of the conspiracy to rig the election.

[rubato]

Nate Silver has it this way in Texas:
49.4 Trump
43.7 Clinton

After aggregating polls from a number of sources.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... ast/texas/

[Scooter]

This would be icing on the cake:

The more Americans get to know Marco Rubio, the less anyone appears to like him. Despite his having better name recognition than almost any other politician in Congress, a new Quinnipiac Poll released today says Rubio's race against Democrat Patrick Murphy for Florida's U.S. Senate seat is now "too close to call."

Since the former presidential contender jumped back into the Senate race this summer (after swearing to voters that he wouldn't run), most analysts have predicted that Rubio would win his reelection bid in a landslide. But Quinnipiac's poll today, which comes hours after the pair debated on live TV last night, shows Rubio leading Murphy by a scant 49-47-point margin.

[Guinevere]

Oh that would be justice, sweet justice.

[Lord Jim]

Trump's incredible shrinking map

Six of the 11 battleground states are now in Hillary Clinton's pocket.

In June, POLITICO identified 11 key battleground states — totaling 146 electoral votes — that would effectively decide the presidential election in November. A new examination of polling data and strategic campaign ad buys indicates that six of those 11 are now comfortably in Hillary Clinton’s column.

Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points or greater in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If the Democratic nominee won those six states, plus all the other reliably Democratic states President Barack Obama captured in both 2008 and 2012, she would eclipse the 270-electoral-vote threshold and win the presidency.

Even if Trump ran the table in the remaining battleground states — Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — he would fall short of the White House if he cannot flip another state where Clinton currently leads in the polls.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/t ... z4NiwjGEyu
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[rubato]

Rubio, the promise keeper.



yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

Well, y'all can hate on Marco, (of course I want him to win) but you've got to give him credit for this:

Marco Rubio has been mum on the WikiLeaks hack of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman and advises Republicans to do the same, warning that while Democrats are being hacked today, Republicans could be exposed tomorrow.

In a statement out Wednesday morning, the Florida senator refused to acknowledge any of the revelations exposed by WikiLeaks’ hack of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s personal email account.

“I will not discuss any issue that has become public solely on the basis of Wikileaks,” said Rubio, who sits on the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee. “As our intelligence agencies have said, these leaks are an effort by a foreign government to interfere with our electoral process and I will not indulge it.”

Rubio’s position is a clear break with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and some of his surrogates. Trump has repeatedly exploited the hack, blasting out though his Facebook and Twitter accounts negative Clinton headlines that have emerged and encouraging his supporters at rallies to look at the revelations themselves because, he said, the media aren’t reporting on it enough.

Trump, however, is also the candidate who once encouraged espionage, inviting Russia earlier this summer to hack Clinton’s emails.

But Rubio warned Republicans not to seize on the attacks, because while Podesta, the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have all been breached this year, GOP networks could be next.

“Further, I want to warn my fellow Republicans who may want to capitalize politically on these leaks: Today it is the Democrats. Tomorrow it could be us,” he said.

Speaking in Tampa later on Wednesday, Rubio warned that giving credence to foreign hacks against U.S. officials could be “an invitation to chaos and havoc.”

“Just think about this: Do we really want to be a country where foreign leaders or foreign intelligence agencies can blackmail our elected officials and say to them that unless you do what we want you to do, we’re gonna release emails from your campaign manager, your wife, your daughter, your son, and we’re gonna embarrass you. So unless you wanna be embarrassed you better do what we want you to do. Is that what we want?” Rubio asked. “Because I’ll tell you that’s what Vladimir Putin does. I think there’s plenty of material in which to line up and take on Secretary Clinton. I think this one is an invitation to chaos and havoc in the future.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/m ... z4NlKdQfub
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook